A good time to be buying a house?

[AtW]

I would think it is. Just got off the plane to find Id been gazumped on our repo property by an extra £30k higher than me. Oh well.

[AtW]

He's under the patio, pretty unlikely.

But his life insurance still good, right?

[vetran]

He's under the beach in Thailand, pretty unlikely.

FTFY

[jamesbrown]

Massively over-valued in London and the SE, yes (many international analysts have said the same), but there needs to be a catalyst for a crash, either in terms of a broader crash in asset prices, a recession, or a sudden increase in interest rates. Volumes are historically low, which increases risk (prices are determined at the margins), but I can't see the BTL changes precipitating a broader crash. I hope there's a serious correction, and there will be with the next recession, but I can't see an immediate catalyst (as in, this year).

[jbond007]

Massively over-valued in London and the SE, yes (many international analysts have said the same), but there needs to be a catalyst for a crash, either in terms of a broader crash in asset prices, a recession, or a sudden increase in interest rates. Volumes are historically low, which increases risk (prices are determined at the margins), but I can't see the BTL changes precipitating a broader crash. I hope there's a serious correction, and there will be with the next recession, but I can't see an immediate catalyst (as in, this year).

Global recession causes many investors to start looking at alternate places/countries to invest in. Isn't this what happened in 2008 when global recession did not really cause property crash in London because a lot of foreign investors were investing in properties. So even in recession, I doubt prices in London/SE would fluctuate much - maybe 2-3%

[AtW]

there needs to be a catalyst for a crash

1) Higher stamp duty will deter foreigners, who will generally have a lot less money due to oil/metal markets collapsing
2) interest rates WILL be increasing - FRS has already done the first move and we'll soon see 3% rates in USA, up from near zero
3) BTL relief removal will hit very hard, plus 3% stamp duty on second homes
4) higher taxes in UK on those who had some money - there will be less money around, including for children who counted on mum and dad for deposit
5) stock market will go down following upcoming Chinese deflation, companies will have to top up their pension funds, fire people etc

I decided to continue to rent, at least for next 12 months, going to view new flats today ...

[PurpleGorilla]

Massively over-valued in London and the SE, yes (many international analysts have said the same), but there needs to be a catalyst for a crash, either in terms of a broader crash in asset prices, a recession, or a sudden increase in interest rates. Volumes are historically low, which increases risk (prices are determined at the margins), but I can't see the BTL changes precipitating a broader crash. I hope there's a serious correction, and there will be with the next recession, but I can't see an immediate catalyst (as in, this year).

what was the 2008 catalyst?

over exposed banks to toxic debts?
rate rises in the US?
a spike in oil prices?

[MarillionFan]

I'm out of the running now. What do the panel think though?

4 bedroom detached house for sale in Wingfield, Trowbridge, Wiltshire, BA14 , BA14

[AtW]

what was the 2008 catalyst?

over exposed banks to toxic debts?
rate rises in the US?
a spike in oil prices?

Banks collapsing and taking everybody's monies with them!!!

[AtW]

I'm out of the running now. What do the panel think though?

4 bedroom detached house for sale in Wingfield, Trowbridge, Wiltshire, BA14 , BA14

Looks like a horse stable.

HTH