Reply to: A good time to be buying a house?

[scooterscot]

That you?

That's me. Always running away with the fine woman.

[vetran]

Theres no pleasing some people!

I think i might view. I could be Mr Darcey

That you?

[BlasterBates]

This one has a nice view, overlooking the Welsh Riviera.

4 bedroom detached house for sale in Llwynmawr Close, Swansea, Swansea (County of), SA2, SA2

[scooterscot]

Theres no pleasing some people!

I think i might view. I could be Mr Darcey

[vetran]

Perhaps this is more your thing

Köchelstorfer Mühle mit privatem See Engel & Völkers Property Details | W-023MWF - ( Germany, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Nordwestmecklenburg (Kreis), Köchelstorf )

now you are talking.

Do they not show pictures of bedrooms or the view out of the window in German listings?

[PurpleGorilla]

Perhaps this is more your thing

Köchelstorfer Mühle mit privatem See Engel & Völkers Property Details | W-023MWF - ( Germany, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Nordwestmecklenburg (Kreis), Köchelstorf )

Funky aga thingy

[scooterscot]

Perhaps this is more your thing

Köchelstorfer Mühle mit privatem See Engel & Völkers Property Details | W-023MWF - ( Germany, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Nordwestmecklenburg (Kreis), Köchelstorf )

[vetran]

Luvly

11 Zimmer Haus zum Kauf in Aachen-Haaren mit ca. 736 qm Grundstücksfläche (ScoutId 85859743)

nice stair lift & bathroom. like the front door

[scooterscot]

Luvly

11 Zimmer Haus zum Kauf in Aachen-Haaren mit ca. 736 qm Grundstücksfläche (ScoutId 85859743)

[jamesbrown]

Indeed. If an commodity like oil can crash from $110 to $30 I'd be concerned holding a similar commodity like property, which it is not normally referred. London property is used by investors not people in search of a home.

You'll here the squeals from Saturn when it crashes. Should be fun.

Yup, there's no doubt that property has become a major asset class and will behave as such in a downturn, albeit with different lags than other assets. London is particularly exposed on the basis of fundamentals, but it's a pattern in other major cities throughout the world.

[PurpleGorilla]

Yes, there's no doubt that property has been an appreciating asset. Asset bubbles mainly catch those that are late to the party, i.e. those highly-leveraged kids that were taught that property was always going to be a one-way bet.

And the banks lending silly money.

[jamesbrown]

I pay less than half in Mortgage what it would cost to rent my house. Apparently its worth hundreds of thousands more than I have paid overall in mortgage in the last 30 years. Even if it falls in value by half I am still massively ahead and I live in a house that is much bigger & nicer than I could rent.

Yes, there's no doubt that property has been an appreciating asset. Asset bubbles mainly catch those that are late to the party, i.e. those highly-leveraged kids that were taught that property was always going to be a one-way bet.

[vetran]

It depends on your definition of crash, but prices fell by 20%+, including in London, but they recovered fairly quickly (even by early 2010). However, in some areas outside of London and the SE, they haven't recovered at all. In London and the SE, valuations are more stretched than they were in 2008, so any correction would be substantially larger IMO. But it needs a major catalyst, a Lehman moment.

I pay less than half in Mortgage what it would cost to rent my house. Apparently its worth hundreds of thousands more than I have paid overall in mortgage in the last 30 years. Even if it falls in value by half I am still massively ahead and I live in a house that is much bigger & nicer than I could rent.

[scooterscot]

Massively over-valued in London and the SE, yes (many international analysts have said the same), but there needs to be a catalyst for a crash, either in terms of a broader crash in asset prices, a recession, or a sudden increase in interest rates. Volumes are historically low, which increases risk (prices are determined at the margins), but I can't see the BTL changes precipitating a broader crash. I hope there's a serious correction, and there will be with the next recession, but I can't see an immediate catalyst (as in, this year).

Indeed. If an commodity like oil can crash from $110 to $30 I'd be concerned holding a similar commodity like property, which it is not normally referred. London property is used by investors not people in search of a home.

You'll here the squeals from Saturn when it crashes. Should be fun.

[jamesbrown]

Global recession causes many investors to start looking at alternate places/countries to invest in. Isn't this what happened in 2008 when global recession did not really cause property crash in London because a lot of foreign investors were investing in properties. So even in recession, I doubt prices in London/SE would fluctuate much - maybe 2-3%

It depends on your definition of crash, but prices fell by 20%+, including in London, but they recovered fairly quickly (even by early 2010). However, in some areas outside of London and the SE, they haven't recovered at all. In London and the SE, valuations are more stretched than they were in 2008, so any correction would be substantially larger IMO. But it needs a major catalyst, a Lehman moment.