Salmond "We can take Scotland in two weeks"

[minestrone]

Yestapo

[Old Greg]

IMO it's nonsense to suggest other countries in the EU would want to 'punish' Scotland for wanting to be an independent nation. It's already a country in it's own right with it's own education and justice systems.

It's the first independence campaign I can think of that has come about by democratic means rather than the bomb and the bullet.

Dissolution of Czechoslovakia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottis...iberation_Army

[Batcher]

Dissolution of Czechoslovakia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Scottish National Liberation Army - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

My memory is tulip though

Anyway, the SNLA aren't around for this referendum.

[Batcher]

Uncertain economics

Robert Peston, BBC Economic editor

Here is the bad news if you haven't made up your mind whether to vote for Scotland to become independent - economic analysis cannot give you the answer.

That is partly because this dismal science is not capable of giving wholly (and sometimes even partly) accurate forecasts about the future prosperity of nations.

Look at the case of a comparably sized small country, Ireland. A decade ago many economists (and others) saw it as a rip-roaring success, that had become considerably richer on a per-head basis than the UK.

Then three years ago it looked like a total basket case, as its property sector and banks imploded.

Today it can be seen as a model of how a determined small country can reconstruct its economy in adversity, in stark contrast to the inertia in a bigger country such as Italy.

[minestrone]

I actually think that if it is a yes the negotiation period will be so disastrous that reality will sink in for many and separation will be averted.

[Unix]

I actually think that if it is a yes the negotiation period will be so disastrous that reality will sink in for many and separation will be averted.

Maybe you should stop thinking mate

[minestrone]

If we don't get CU, which we wont and we get told we are not going to be in the EU for a minimum of 5 years and we have to take in the euro then I think there will be a panic. Especially as people get told they are losing their jobs.

I can see another referendum on what is negotiated, I Can see some unions going on strike to force that. I don't think yes guarantees separation.

[jemb]

Uncertain economics

Robert Peston, BBC Economic editor

Here is the bad news if you haven't made up your mind whether to vote for Scotland to become independent - economic analysis cannot give you the answer.

That is partly because this dismal science is not capable of giving wholly (and sometimes even partly) accurate forecasts about the future prosperity of nations.

Look at the case of a comparably sized small country, Ireland. A decade ago many economists (and others) saw it as a rip-roaring success, that had become considerably richer on a per-head basis than the UK.

Then three years ago it looked like a total basket case, as its property sector and banks imploded.

Today it can be seen as a model of how a determined small country can reconstruct its economy in adversity, in stark contrast to the inertia in a bigger country such as Italy.

This is really a very selective rehash which also includes:

"But, my goodness! It has experienced misery in the past few years, in the form of savage wage cuts and high unemployment."

Their economy bombed, they are still in a period of austerity and have an unemployment rate 2x that of the UK.

If the lesson you are taking from this is that post a Yes vote the Scottish economy will hit the rocks are require reconstruction post adversity then you are not far off the mark.

[jemb]

If we don't get CU, which we wont and we get told we are not going to be in the EU for a minimum of 5 years and we have to take in the euro then I think there will be a panic. Especially as people get told they are losing their jobs.

I can see another referendum on what is negotiated, I Can see some unions going on strike to force that. I don't think yes guarantees separation.

There will be no going back.

[Zero Liability]

Uncertain economics

Robert Peston, BBC Economic editor

Here is the bad news if you haven't made up your mind whether to vote for Scotland to become independent - economic analysis cannot give you the answer.

That is partly because this dismal science is not capable of giving wholly (and sometimes even partly) accurate forecasts about the future prosperity of nations.

What he says is true to the extent that you're aiming to make precise, quantitative forecasts, which as we know, often work until they don't. However, an economist can still tell you the qualitative effects of a given change, all else being equal, so economic analysis remains relevant; just because the economy is a complex jumble of factors, it doesn't mean economic analysis suddenly provides no answers. Besides, a good economist, when applying theory, will take care to ensure that the relevant conditions for its application are present. One just has to be aware of what it can and can't tell you. As for forecasting, even the best investors can't get it right on a consistent basis.

I think Scotland could do very well, but the Yes campaign isn't explaining under what conditions that may be and is selling a platform whereby oil and a currency union are a panacea. This is the wrong message to put out and is not very honest.