Invest in properties now or wait?

[hgllgh]

Recession in 2021 caused by continued job losses from the fallout of global 'lockdown' should mean house prices coming down. You need a recession for house price deflation and you need job losses for a recession, so that's still the key metric but there are others...

Even the property 'gurus' and pros also seem to be forming a consensus of house price deflation next year with a perfect storm caused by:-

* landlord tax changes biting harder than in 2020 and increasing beyond 2021 (if you BTL now, seems like SPV company is the way to go).... more BTL's on the market
* Rishi's SD holiday coming to an end
* Coronavirus lockdown continuing.... more airbnb's on the market
* lenders tightening their criteria (which means they see prices coming down too)
* Fear based on hard brexit

If you buy now, leave a 25% - 30% discounted offer on the table and see if you get any takers.

[andyg]

NLUK has a good point about getting your affairs in order to decide whether to buy personally or through a SPV - Take that research seriously

It all depends on who the seller is and what the yield is - I personally wouldnt buy now but I have seen a few properties in auction where the seller is distressed and the yields are 7% and these are residential freeholds where the 7% return comes from housing benefit payments so pretty much guaranteed.

Is it a bad time to buy? Yes unless you get a very good deal on purchasing...

Also be prepared for more BTL tax and generally more rights for the tenants going forward

Note that housing benefit payments are paid to the would-be tenant and not directly to the landlord. Therefore, you are at the mercy of the tenant paying their rent on-time.

[eek]

Note that housing benefit payments are paid to the would-be tenant and not directly to the landlord. Therefore, you are at the mercy of the tenant paying their rent on-time.

Also housing benefit may not be enough to meet the actual rent you are charging - and it's possible that while the tenant may think they can afford the extra the reality may be very different.

So even after the tenant has failed to pay and you successfully switch the payment to be direct to the landlord you may still be out of pocket.

[NowPermOutsideUK]

Note that housing benefit payments are paid to the would-be tenant and not directly to the landlord. Therefore, you are at the mercy of the tenant paying their rent on-time.

Yes i am aware of this - You want to find someone who is so drunk or drugs problem that the council pays direct - I have a few of these and the people are actually great dont trouble me and payments automatically

LHA rates for inner london are 1285 for a single person - That means a little 15 square metre studio will get you 1285 a month - These little flats cannot be mortgaged because of size but do qualify for the LHA rates and trade for 170K

This means a 170K asset generating 15K a year which is not bad going

[LondonManc]

My parents have just sold. They're moving about 200 miles away from where they are, but are renting until they see something they like and get a feel for the area. The estate agent suggested that it's a good tactic, not least because of the expectation of a drop in house prices over the winter.

[PCTNN]

My parents have just sold. They're moving about 200 miles away from where they are, but are renting until they see something they like and get a feel for the area. The estate agent suggested that it's a good tactic, not least because of the expectation of a drop in house prices over the winter.

Yes, that's a good strategy.

Also because in a lot of areas the rental market is struggling, lots of empty places at the moment. Landlords are desperate for money so they should be flexible and be okay with 3 months rolling contracts, rather than get you stuck in with 12 monther.

Planning on doing the same as soon as the lockdown eases up a little. I noticed the house market was almost dead during the first wave: no viewings allowed, nobody selling, nobody buying. Prices flew up and properties got sold in days right the second the restrictions were lifted.

[ladymuck]

Lots of prices falling. I get daily emails on both sales and rentals for my area and it's definitely worth hanging on for a bit.

[PCTNN]

Also I noticed quite a few properties going back on the market and needing to sell quickly. Probably buyers got their mortgage rejected (or realised they might pay less in 6 months and pulled out at the last second)

[SueEllen]

Also I noticed quite a few properties going back on the market and needing to sell quickly. Probably buyers got their mortgage rejected (or realised they might pay less in 6 months and pulled out at the last second)

Some people have lost jobs so can't go ahead with purchases.

[ChimpMaster]

Some people have lost jobs so can't go ahead with purchases.

The couple who wanted to buy our house - when we had it on the market just before Covid - ended up getting divorced during lockdown!

Generally, prices should come down a bit over the next 6 - 12 months and not least because surveyors are down-valuing in so many cases. Lenders are doing their best not to lend, using every possible excuse to say no.

For anyone thinking of selling their main home and renting for a while (i.e. gambling on price falls), this is a very risky strategy and I have known people who got caught out in the past by trying a similar thing. You just don't know when the market will turn back up and then you'll be scrambling to buy any house just to get back on the ladder.