State of the Market

[hungry_hog]

The anomaly is - there are "good" people looking and yet at the same time companies very keen to hire "good" people, but somehow they don't connect.
I think as an earlier poster said there is a lot of noise / unsuitable applicants and this creates inertia.
I believe this has also the affect of the client taking the first half-decent person they find as they don't want to go through 10 further timewasters.

An old client were trying to find a Data Analyst - half the people they interviewed didn't know what Jupyter was, maybe it was presumed as opposed to made explicit? Or the candidate had put it on CV without really using it.

[willendure]

I don't understand how and why stock markets are doing so well, it all seems like being propped up temporarily until everything starts coming down like bloody dominos.

Inflation is the primary reason and same with house prices. Also bear in mind that owning stocks and owning >1 house is the priviledge of the wealthy and not the average Joe.

If inflation is making money worth less constantly, then it causes other assets to take on "moneyness" - some of the attributes of money. When you can't save in pounds you have to start viewing other assets as substitutes for pounds, so you buy stocks, houses, artwork, precious metals, and so on. Inflation makes debts get smaller over time. So companies borrow and buy back their own shares to boost the price and enable further borrowing.

Private equity has been at an all you can eat buffet for the last decade+ and heavily leveraged. Most of us will be quite happy when that turd hits the fan.

Another factor is default pension enrolement, only existed for the last 15 or 20 years? Governments know their pension liabilities are unsustainable so introduced rules that employees must now be enroled in a pension by default, unless they opt out. Constant stream of "dumb money" feeding into equities.

It all looks very different when there is a deflationary shock though, when only money is money and everyone suddenly needs it.

[willendure]

The anomaly is - there are "good" people looking and yet at the same time companies very keen to hire "good" people, but somehow they don't connect.
I think as an earlier poster said there is a lot of noise / unsuitable applicants and this creates inertia.
I believe this has also the affect of the client taking the first half-decent person they find as they don't want to go through 10 further timewasters.

An old client were trying to find a Data Analyst - half the people they interviewed didn't know what Jupyter was, maybe it was presumed as opposed to made explicit? Or the candidate had put it on CV without really using it.

Current contract - I applied for maybe 50 roles, a lot of them I was well suited for and my CV was a great match. Heard absolutely nothing in response. Then out of the blue I got an interview for something that was an ok match, I told them I was very keen and chased down the second interview and got the job, but in reality I was thinking I can get this and I just want anything I can get right now.

I don't know what is going on here - it could be that a lot of recruitment agents (the good ones) have left and now too much is relying on automation and idiots? But whatever it is your observation about the mismatch and inability to connect seems valid.

[Smartie]

Another factor is default pension enrolement, only existed for the last 15 or 20 years? Governments know their pension liabilities are unsustainable so introduced rules that employees must now be enroled in a pension by default, unless they opt out. Constant stream of "dumb money" feeding into equities.

Hmm, major mis-understanding here.
Government pension liabilities are an entirely separate issue to personal pension auto-enrolment.

The state pension is barely enough to live on for most and only starts at 67 (for me, currently).
There are questions as to whether it will continue to be paid, be reduced in real terms, taxed, means tested or otherwise changed.
My view is that most changes are fairly unlikely, at least in the short term and changes that are made will be trailed years in advance to allow those who've planned on the current situation continuing at their retirement age.

Auto-enrolment has been very successful and is a Very Good Idea.
As defined benefit pensions were removed by many companies, Gen X in particular were left with insufficient private pension provision.
Younger people now have more chance to build up a decent sum from saving relatively small amounts for a long time.
There are questions again for private pensions - changes to the tax free lump sum (though that's already reducing in real terms for those lucky enough to hit the cap), starting to charge NI on pension income etc.

As for 'dumb money', index trackers win over higher fee active management every time according to all the data.
It becomes more of an issue when very high percentages of trades are automated but we're nowhere near that yet.
Investing is a long term business and everything looks like a blip on a continuously increasing path over the last hundred years - banking crisis, Covid, even the great crash.
Maybe that will change, but it's probably the best risk on offer.
DYOR.

[Dorkeaux]

Current contract - I applied for maybe 50 roles, a lot of them I was well suited for and my CV was a great match. Heard absolutely nothing in response. Then out of the blue I got an interview for something that was an ok match, I told them I was very keen and chased down the second interview and got the job, but in reality I was thinking I can get this and I just want anything I can get right now.

I don't know what is going on here - it could be that a lot of recruitment agents (the good ones) have left and now too much is relying on automation and idiots? But whatever it is your observation about the mismatch and inability to connect seems valid.

Fistly, good on you for getting a contract.
Not every contract is great, but I wouldn't beat yourself up about the "great matches" you think you've missed out on.

There are some very experienced contractors who seem mystified on not getting roles that look like perfect matches for their CV.
I don't understand the mystification. These are the things:

1) The published job spec
2) The actual job
3) Your history / reputation
4) Market demand
4) The Interview
5) The CV
6) Your Linkedin Profile
7) What the CV sifter is actually looking for
8) What the interviewer is actually looking for
9) Your actual skills and experiences
10) How well you and the interviewer actually interview
11) What the role becomes once you are in it

None of these things actually relate to one another very strongly. It would be nice if they did, but they don't.

Thinking CV + reputation = job spec = interview = contract where all the parameters match appeals to the logical mind, but it's never worked that way.

Anecdotal sidebar: The agent who facilitated my current contract posted on Linkedin that a Technical PM role he posted attracted over 7000 submissions in 17 hours.
Yet, when he contacted me for my current role he did a search on linkedin, contacted me then called me up on the phone.

I might be one of those 7000, but I don't expect my CV to be magically transformed into that contract. All I would expect is that my CV gets distributed slightly wider. Which is an OK outcome.

[SussexSeagull]

The anomaly is - there are "good" people looking and yet at the same time companies very keen to hire "good" people, but somehow they don't connect.
I think as an earlier poster said there is a lot of noise / unsuitable applicants and this creates inertia.
I believe this has also the affect of the client taking the first half-decent person they find as they don't want to go through 10 further timewasters.

An old client were trying to find a Data Analyst - half the people they interviewed didn't know what Jupyter was, maybe it was presumed as opposed to made explicit? Or the candidate had put it on CV without really using it.

This happens is a bad market. Any role - contract or permanent - gets flooded with applications of which a majority aren't suitable, which I am sure has become worse with automated processes applying for jobs, and the people who would make good candidates get drowned out. The more sensible companies used to ask a recruiter to sort it out for them, sometimes not even advertising it, but that doesn't seem to common anymore.

[oliverson]

I agree, it still is a dreadful market, very frustrating, but there are some opportunities.

LinkedIn and JobServe are still throwing up one or two possibilities, including one dead cert I dismissed yesterday as the rate was tulip. Another one has just popped up paying an acceptable rate and very close to where I live (initial few weeks requires some on-site presence, but flexible thereafter). The trick of course is getting yourself noticed amongst the legions of applicants, most of whom aren't suitable qualified for the role and just muddy it for those of us that are, so monitor the boards regularly, apply quickly and follow up with the advertiser, even if that means, wait for it, a TELEPHONE CALL. Remember those?!

Numbers game and keep thinking how you can use your network to maybe generate something. Last time you mailed your contacts for work they didn't have anything, that may well have changed now.

And just as quickly as it appeared it goes on hold. Was scheduled for interviews today and Monday with a possible Tuesday start, which is a disappointment, but that's the name of the game I suppose. The search goes on.

[SussexSeagull]

Current contract - I applied for maybe 50 roles, a lot of them I was well suited for and my CV was a great match. Heard absolutely nothing in response. Then out of the blue I got an interview for something that was an ok match, I told them I was very keen and chased down the second interview and got the job, but in reality I was thinking I can get this and I just want anything I can get right now.

I don't know what is going on here - it could be that a lot of recruitment agents (the good ones) have left and now too much is relying on automation and idiots? But whatever it is your observation about the mismatch and inability to connect seems valid.

Certainly you don't think you will get another contract until you get another contract. As much as hit hurts me to say it, they also tend to come to you which has kind of led me to conclude that all the diligent trawling through LinkedIn, Jobserve, etc. is actually a bit of a waste of time.

[oliverson]

Certainly you don't think you will get another contract until you get another contract. As much as hit hurts me to say it, they also tend to come to you which has kind of led me to conclude that all the diligent trawling through LinkedIn, Jobserve, etc. is actually a bit of a waste of time.

Whilst I agree with this to a point, in a market where everybody else is looking to get their CV's in front of the client, you can't afford to go running around London like Forest Gump (not pointing to you SchumiStars!), for two hours. You're going to miss out.

Whilst today's interview got cancelled, that opportunity came about as I was 'trawling' through LinkedIn and landed on the agent's advert within 8 minutes of it being posted, with him calling me back same day. I'm certain that if I'd left it a few hours and became 'applicant 150', we wouldn't have had that call. OK, it's on the burner for now and may never materialise, but it illustrates the point I think.

[SussexSeagull]

Whilst I agree with this to a point, in a market where everybody else is looking to get their CV's in front of the client, you can't afford to go running around London like Forest Gump (not pointing to you SchumiStars!), for two hours. You're going to miss out.

Whilst today's interview got cancelled, that opportunity came about as I was 'trawling' through LinkedIn and landed on the agent's advert within 8 minutes of it being posted, with him calling me back same day. I'm certain that if I'd left it a few hours and became 'applicant 150', we wouldn't have had that call. OK, it's on the burner for now and may never materialise, but it illustrates the point I think.

Don't misunderstand me, I do trawl LinkedIn and the like on the grounds it is fairly low effort and have had some conversations on the back of it but for my last few contracts they have found me.