State of the Market

[gruntling]

Well, this is rubbish.

Only a couple of very short contracts in two years, and I've had to go permie (and I was lucky with that). I dropped into Jobserve sites, and it's the same fake ads from two years back.

Absolutely no sign of any financial new year bounce if anything worse than last year which was worse than the previous.

There is talk of an interest rate cut next month, which is at least something positive.

[quackhandle]

Had a few calls today, which has bucked the trend of silence in the past few months.

Got a knock back on a permy role from an F1 team but appreciated that they actually told me.

Putting "jib that idiot Verstappen off and put me in the car" in the About You section might not have gone down too well.

qh

[SussexSeagull]

Being someone who is perpetually early for things because I hate being late, I always build in buffer time. I'd much rather have to find something to do for 15 minutes than risk turning up a few minutes late. Having lived in that London for 11 years now, I know how variable transport can be.

This does drive HWMBO bonkers Especially when I start apologising for being a few mins late for a restaurant booking (yes, I know the booking says 15 mins grace period).

A client nit picking about arriving 7 minutes late sounds like a proper nightmare and I wouldn't enjoy that at all. I would still build in my usual travel buffer time but I would make damn sure I don't enter the building until billing time.

I tend to be one of the earlier people in the office, or at least used to be when companies paid me to attend their office, but with the exception of the couple of contracts I did that were in walking distance* any form of transport to the office is going to encounter delays from time to time. In those circumstances I don't particularly want to be lectured on being a few minutes late.

*Actually back in my permanent days I used to work over the road to where I lived so had about a 90 second commute. One morning I was in the shower and the doorbell went. Being naked I didn't answer it. Once I was dressed I left my flat to be met by a Policeman on the stairs. Apparently a homeless man had walked into my flats overnight and died just by the exterior door.

As it was all going a bit Waking The Dead with two people in all white paper outfits and policeman watching on I sort of assumed I couldn't get out so told the Police I would wait until they finished, to which to my surprise that I could leave if I didn't mind stepping over the body. Being the professional I am I went downstairs and stepped over the poor should covered in a paper blanket but with the top of his head and shoes visible. Thinking that was that I started to walk off before one of the officers asked me if I had a number for the managing agent and we started having a chat over the recently deceased body.

Got into the office and said 'you really won't believe why I am late'. To their credit they didn't complain and a steady stream of management came to ask me about it before laughing then insisting I went home at lunch to get an update.

[willendure]

I have heard of someone being clocked in and out and they left after a week …it was akin to being in factory and working shifts…

Did some work for Standard Life at least 15 years ago and they had a clocking-in-out system with your entry card. But it was a separate unit to the actual door so sometimes I came in early, clocked in, then left and went for coffee and so on. Can't say I miss the place.

[dsc]

Well, this is rubbish.

Only a couple of very short contracts in two years, and I've had to go permie (and I was lucky with that). I dropped into Jobserve sites, and it's the same fake ads from two years back.

Absolutely no sign of any financial new year bounce if anything worse than last year which was worse than the previous.

There is talk of an interest rate cut next month, which is at least something positive.

Read somewhere yesterday that the budget deficit is much larger than expected and that more cuts or tax increases will most likely happen which then means bad news for pretty much the whole economy as the gov is already desperate. With the way tariffs are going (or not going depends how you look at it) I can see many businesses simply folding (automotive for example) or doing more cuts / hiring freezes as there simply isn't anything positive to look forward to. How the global economy has not folded yet is really beyond me.

[willendure]

Read somewhere yesterday that the budget deficit is much larger than expected and that more cuts or tax increases will most likely happen which then means bad news for pretty much the whole economy as the gov is already desperate. With the way tariffs are going (or not going depends how you look at it) I can see many businesses simply folding (automotive for example) or doing more cuts / hiring freezes as there simply isn't anything positive to look forward to. How the global economy has not folded yet is really beyond me.

Indeed. Cuts, tax rises or inflation or a mix of all are likely and none of those things will actually help the economy but will actually harm it. Look at UK interest rates compared with Europe - UK 10 year is around 4.5% and the main EU countries are around 2.5%. That means bond holders expect UK inflation to be high. And not the kind of inflation that results from the business cycle running hot, but the kind that results from printing money.

I would not be worried if it were not also the case that we have a debt load creeping to levels not seen since the end of WW2 - debt to gdp was 250% then and 96% now. But now we also have the stealth debt to add to that - the unfunded pension and other social security liabilities, which adds at least another 50%.

I think within the next decade we might even see some kind of debt bail-in in this country. That is where capital controls are imposed to lock savers and bond holders in and then the money printers go brrr. We go brrr too, unable to afford the heating bill.

I don't blame the current government for this mess, they only just inherited it recently. But boy do they need to come up with an effective plan and quickly!

Global economy will get crushed I agree. By Q3? Seems likely. My thoughts are, hold onto some cash until at least then and then look for ways to invest it outside of the UK during the deflationary shock when assets can be had for cheap.

[oliverson]

Indeed. Cuts, tax rises or inflation or a mix of all are likely and none of those things will actually help the economy but will actually harm it. Look at UK interest rates compared with Europe - UK 10 year is around 4.5% and the main EU countries are around 2.5%. That means bond holders expect UK inflation to be high. And not the kind of inflation that results from the business cycle running hot, but the kind that results from printing money.

I would not be worried if it were not also the case that we have a debt load creeping to levels not seen since the end of WW2 - debt to gdp was 250% then and 96% now. But now we also have the stealth debt to add to that - the unfunded pension and other social security liabilities, which adds at least another 50%.

I think within the next decade we might even see some kind of debt bail-in in this country. That is where capital controls are imposed to lock savers and bond holders in and then the money printers go brrr. We go brrr too, unable to afford the heating bill.

I don't blame the current government for this mess, they only just inherited it recently. But boy do they need to come up with an effective plan and quickly!

Global economy will get crushed I agree. By Q3? Seems likely. My thoughts are, hold onto some cash until at least then and then look for ways to invest it outside of the UK during the deflationary shock when assets can be had for cheap.

I do wish you'd stop being so positive!

[SchumiStars]

Indeed. Cuts, tax rises or inflation or a mix of all are likely and none of those things will actually help the economy but will actually harm it. Look at UK interest rates compared with Europe - UK 10 year is around 4.5% and the main EU countries are around 2.5%. That means bond holders expect UK inflation to be high. And not the kind of inflation that results from the business cycle running hot, but the kind that results from printing money.

I would not be worried if it were not also the case that we have a debt load creeping to levels not seen since the end of WW2 - debt to gdp was 250% then and 96% now. But now we also have the stealth debt to add to that - the unfunded pension and other social security liabilities, which adds at least another 50%.

I think within the next decade we might even see some kind of debt bail-in in this country. That is where capital controls are imposed to lock savers and bond holders in and then the money printers go brrr. We go brrr too, unable to afford the heating bill.

I don't blame the current government for this mess, they only just inherited it recently. But boy do they need to come up with an effective plan and quickly!

Global economy will get crushed I agree. By Q3? Seems likely. My thoughts are, hold onto some cash until at least then and then look for ways to invest it outside of the UK during the deflationary shock when assets can be had for cheap.

This sounds bad.

IT contracting and permi market is still on its arse. Still no signs of any recovery.

[oliverson]

This sounds bad.

IT contracting and permi market is still on its arse. Still no signs of any recovery.

I agree, it still is a dreadful market, very frustrating, but there are some opportunities.

LinkedIn and JobServe are still throwing up one or two possibilities, including one dead cert I dismissed yesterday as the rate was tulip. Another one has just popped up paying an acceptable rate and very close to where I live (initial few weeks requires some on-site presence, but flexible thereafter). The trick of course is getting yourself noticed amongst the legions of applicants, most of whom aren't suitable qualified for the role and just muddy it for those of us that are, so monitor the boards regularly, apply quickly and follow up with the advertiser, even if that means, wait for it, a TELEPHONE CALL. Remember those?!

Numbers game and keep thinking how you can use your network to maybe generate something. Last time you mailed your contacts for work they didn't have anything, that may well have changed now.

[dsc]

Indeed. Cuts, tax rises or inflation or a mix of all are likely and none of those things will actually help the economy but will actually harm it. Look at UK interest rates compared with Europe - UK 10 year is around 4.5% and the main EU countries are around 2.5%. That means bond holders expect UK inflation to be high. And not the kind of inflation that results from the business cycle running hot, but the kind that results from printing money.

I would not be worried if it were not also the case that we have a debt load creeping to levels not seen since the end of WW2 - debt to gdp was 250% then and 96% now. But now we also have the stealth debt to add to that - the unfunded pension and other social security liabilities, which adds at least another 50%.

I think within the next decade we might even see some kind of debt bail-in in this country. That is where capital controls are imposed to lock savers and bond holders in and then the money printers go brrr. We go brrr too, unable to afford the heating bill.

I don't blame the current government for this mess, they only just inherited it recently. But boy do they need to come up with an effective plan and quickly!

Global economy will get crushed I agree. By Q3? Seems likely. My thoughts are, hold onto some cash until at least then and then look for ways to invest it outside of the UK during the deflationary shock when assets can be had for cheap.

Yeah 10yr gilts are high and gov is tulip scared of it going up hence the recent cuts to make the financial markets happy (-ish) but I can't see it working that well. Debt is also high and uber expensive to service, investment is minimal, growth is minimal, I don't think there's much positive to say about...well anything really. So no surprise there's no work, especially for us, the top 1% earners. Europe is better, but overall most countries are struggling and that's why I don't understand how and why stock markets are doing so well, it all seems like being propped up temporarily until everything starts coming down like bloody dominos.