State of the Market

[SussexSeagull]

Headline news today....just seen on TV talking about the latest ONS migration figures released to the quarter ended June 2024....biggest number of work visas again are to Indians 116,000 visas issued.

Overall net migration drop by 20% to 700k (from all time high) driven primarily by the changes made to student visas (change brought in in January 2024) issued as they are no longer allowed to bring over all their family members...

Most arrivals are non EU only a very small percentage...

I was a Remainer, but a lot of people voted for Brexit to reduce immigration when in fact it has hit record highs since. More specific to what a lot of us do and work in IT, if any of those Visas issued to Indians were in that sector (with the exception of a very small amount of genuinely hard to get skills) then serious questions need asking as we have a fairly large talent pool in that area currently out of work.

This isn't sustainable, and I say that as someone who sees the benefits of properly managed migration.

[dsc]

I was a Remainer, but a lot of people voted for Brexit to reduce immigration when in fact it has hit record highs since. More specific to what a lot of us do and work in IT, if any of those Visas issued to Indians were in that sector (with the exception of a very small amount of genuinely hard to get skills) then serious questions need asking as we have a fairly large talent pool in that area currently out of work.

This isn't sustainable, and I say that as someone who sees the benefits of properly managed migration.

This was predicted before Brexit, anti-Brexit people said migration won't go away, you'll simply swap EU migrants for non-EU migrants and guess what happened...

I know job markets are tulipe at the moment across the world, but I can't see much positive happening in the UK for the next 5-10yrs at least.

[edison]

I have never worked in that sort of rarified air so I am not sure if people earning that sort of money rise above the current malaise or are in it with the rest of us.

The upper end of the market has been very tough for at least 18 months. Perm CIOs/IT Directors and other senior manager levels have been moving less, meaning less opportunities for interims.

A lot of senior perms have lost their jobs during this period which has flooded the interim market and fractional market in particular. I'm in a Slack group for fractionals which had maybe 200 members early last year; it now has nearly 1,500 and a large proportion are people seeking their first fractional role.

A good mate is an experienced CIO/ITD and left a high paying perm role a year ago after being an interim for various companies the previous six years. They have really struggled to find opportunities this year and eventually decided to retire early.

It's not just tech. I've got friends who work in other functions, some who used to earn over £500k a year, and they are struggling to find enough work this year.

[SussexSeagull]

This was predicted before Brexit, anti-Brexit people said migration won't go away, you'll simply swap EU migrants for non-EU migrants and guess what happened...

I know job markets are tulipe at the moment across the world, but I can't see much positive happening in the UK for the next 5-10yrs at least.

I agree and said similar myself at the time.

I am no economist but I think we might be experiencing what Japan has gone through with an ageing population. Plus we were doing ok while the knowledge economy had to largely be done in situ due to technical constraints and it not being so well developed around the world but neither of them are true anymore.

[Cookielove]

agree 100% SussexSeagull serious questions need to be raised asap...

I know lots of people in IT and in Finance and they simply cannot get work...when you look on LI at the jobs posted by agencies and people reply saying that they are interested in the job most names are Indian bar none it is v v noticeable now and becoming more and more apparent. Most jobs are plus 100 applicants so you are pissing in the wind basically!!

Why are we giving out work visas in such large numbers when Brits can't get jobs and are unemployed as the market is flooded....the other issue is they will usually work for far less so wages are being driven down it's madness...

Surely visas it should be only be to plug a genuine skills gap not to drive down UK wages

[SussexSeagull]

The upper end of the market has been very tough for at least 18 months. Perm CIOs/IT Directors and other senior manager levels have been moving less, meaning less opportunities for interims.

A lot of senior perms have lost their jobs during this period which has flooded the interim market and fractional market in particular. I'm in a Slack group for fractionals which had maybe 200 members early last year; it now has nearly 1,500 and a large proportion are people seeking their first fractional role.

A good mate is an experienced CIO/ITD and left a high paying perm role a year ago after being an interim for various companies the previous six years. They have really struggled to find opportunities this year and eventually decided to retire early.

It's not just tech. I've got friends who work in other functions, some who used to earn over £500k a year, and they are struggling to find enough work this year.

I heard it called the White Collar Recession.

I suppose high end consultants who don't need a team (or at least a very small one) around them might prosper in a period of uncertainty but I imagine very few people are switching jobs at the moment so the need for Interim CTO/ITD is quite low, plus anyone who needs to assemble a team is in the same boat as the rest of us.

[SussexSeagull]

agree 100% SussexSeagull serious questions need to be raised asap...

I know lots of people in IT and in Finance and they simply cannot get work...when you look on LI at the jobs posted by agencies and people reply saying that they are interested in the job most names are Indian bar none it is v v noticeable now and becoming more and more apparent. Most jobs are plus 100 applicants so you are pissing in the wind basically!!

Why are we giving out work visas in such large numbers when Brits can't get jobs and are unemployed as the market is flooded....the other issue is they will usually work for far less so wages are being driven down it's madness...

Surely visas it should be only be to plug a genuine skills gap not to drive down UK wages

To be fair, just because they are interested in the job doesn't mean they will be seriously considered for it or would get a Visa to do it. Also the last government did change the rule that allowed Visas to be issued to workers to be paid 80% of the going rate and it now has to be at market rate.

The new government are reviewing the amount of STEM Visas issued but it will presumably take a while to take effect. I personally think the ship has sailed though. I work in teams where half the people moved from India in the last 15 years and now have indefinite leave to remain and have kids in school here. I don't blame them because they did it legally but they are also now in competition for the increasingly small amount of IT work going round.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...024-accessible

[Cookielove]

SussexSeagull yep I know that being interested doesn't mean they will be seriously considered but it gives a flavour of what is going on....the names are dominated by Indians probably in a ratio of about 90% plus which is alarming....that particular group dominate and it is borne out again by the numbers reported today by ONS ...

People have come years ago legally as you describe but the numbers have now got way too high it is not sustainable...I've had Indian colleagues in 2 roles and they are in agreement too the numbers are now crazy ....who would have thought! It is a wholly mess...

[sadkingbilly]

agree 100% SussexSeagull serious questions need to be raised asap...

Why are we giving out work visas in such large numbers when Brits can't get jobs and are unemployed as the market is flooded....the other issue is they will usually work for far less so wages are being driven down it's madness...

Surely visas it should be only be to plug a genuine skills gap not to drive down UK wages

best ask Rishi Richepigge and his Tory pals that.

[Cookielove]

Tories wanted cheap labour and to drive wages down....Labour won't fix it though...