State of the Market

[Lance]

it’s beginning to look a lot like 2008…

it seems the board of SVP are trying to convince the public that this is like 2008. Because if there is a general run on the banks SVP might get a bail out.
But SVP were stupid and failed to hedge their risks in the event of a rate rise. here's hoping they don#t succeed scaring the public otherwise we may have another crash.

Not a liquidity problem, just a timing problem. They had to sell assets to pay depositors, but the assets were sold at a loss. Not dissimilar to what could have happened to UK pension funds in Autumn 22.

Here's a graph. Spot the outlier.





Some further reading here The Demise of Silicon Valley Bank - by Marc Rubinstein (netinterest.co)

[Fraidycat]

According to a recent speech by FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, banks under his purview have accumulated $620 billion in unrealized losses on investment securities as of the fourth quarter due to elevated market interest rates (Figure 8). The elevated level of unrealized losses is at risk of becoming realized if the banks need to sell securities to meet liquidity needs.

Lets hope they dont ever need to sell then.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/458...king-time-bomb

[SussexSeagull]

Thinking about it the only contracts I have got near of late have been from established firms and not start ups. Might explain part of my (and others) woes finding a new contract.

[Fraidycat]

Article from CUK home page:

Nervous organisations kept “playing the short game” by focusing on temporary hires in February 2023 – but that focus was nearly lost in IT.

Rather than their hirers strongly follow the trend of taking on temps over permies because the economy is shaky, IT contractors last month saw their prospects fall flat.

Standing at 50.6, the REC’s February IT contractor index pointed just 0.6 of an index point away from ‘the red,’ representing its lowest reading since November 2020.

[Bluenose]

Its not uncommon for January optimism to be replaced by end-of-February reality but this year seems particularly grim.

[eek]

Its not uncommon for January optimism to be replaced by end-of-February reality but this year seems particularly grim.

It's very much the case of what is going to appear in the budget on Wednesday.

[SussexSeagull]

It's very much the case of what is going to appear in the budget on Wednesday.

It certainly needs something to happen.

[suityou01]

It certainly needs something to happen.

It will dude. Take it easy for a few weeks. April will be crazy busy.

[hungry_hog]

Market for my skillset (BA) is poor, I actually think the BA role has been replaced by data engineers, data analysts and data scientists as companies change their focus. The pure BA (process, requirements) is a much less common than 10 years ago.

My current place (FS, buy side) is very much consolidating teams and hiring fewer BAs, or relying on in house architects or devs for analysis. With the state of the economy, AUM is down and budgets are tight.

If you combine that with the goings on at Goldman (which are already causing a ripple affect across other banks), market in FS looks fairly grim.

One thing you can rely on HSBC will be hiring! Noticed they have bought SVB, so someone is going to be doing some data migration!

[eek]

It will dude. Take it easy for a few weeks. April will be crazy busy.

That’s doomed the rest of this year