How Easy for GB to Rejoin

[Baddish]

Do you think they have contingency plan in place for the eventuality that Great Britain rejoins EU and they just need to hit the switch? Or does it mean reversing everthing done over last 2 years in a similar timescale?

[northernladuk]

There will be more countries leaving it before GB start to even consider it IMO. We can't join again whatever the situation else we will forever be the laughing stock. Even if the thought is there they'll make is to difficult and expensive to re-join to punish us it won't even be worth considering if there was a reason to even engage with them.

[Baddish]

I think current state of the economy is demonstrating that we need freedom of movement. Perhaps there will be a push to join single market with freedom of movement but not full membership. Like they have in Norway.

[WTFH]

We would have to apply, then join the queue. And given how the UK government and their media portray the EU, we wouldn’t be fast-tracked. I also suspect we would have to adopt the Euro as currency (something we never had to do when we were part of it the first time round), and the tax laws (something that JRM & co were very keen for us not to adopt for personal reasons)

[vetran]

I think current state of the economy is demonstrating that we need freedom of movement. Perhaps there will be a push to join single market with freedom of movement but not full membership. Like they have in Norway.

You mean employers moaning they can't get cheap labour to cope with their inefficiencies?

The rest is because of oil prices and disruption from Covid and the Ukraine war. Look at the figures.

You have heard of Automation?

https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/econo...n-on-jobs.html

We have analysed in detail the tasks involved in over 200,000 existing jobs across 29 countries to assess what the potential for automation may be at various points over the next 20 years. We identify three waves of automation that might unfold over this period:

• Wave 1 (to early 2020s): algorithmic
• Wave 2 (to late 2020s): augmentation
• Wave 3 (to mid-2030s): autonomy

During the first wave, we expect relatively low displacement of existing jobs, perhaps only around 3% by the early 2020s. But job displacement could increase in later waves as these technologies mature and are rolled out across the economy in increasingly autonomous form.

By the mid-2030s, up to 30% of jobs could be automatable, with slightly more men being affected in the long run as autonomous vehicles and other machines replace many manual tasks where their share of employment is higher. During the first and second waves, however, women could be at greater risk of automation due to their higher representation in clerical and other administrative functions (see chart).

If we lead the forefront of automation we could keep the profits in the UK to fund our ageing population and bigger health costs or we can increase our population with cheap labour and put the costs off until automation is really biting.

You can already see self service tills, kiosks in fast food joints and soon automated food manufacture cutting jobs in chain stores and restaurants by 30-50%.

Warehouses will become automated.

Building sites will have 3d printers.

We need to anticipate and embrace this second industrial age.

[WTFH]

The rest is because of oil prices and disruption from Covid and the Ukraine war. Look at the figures.

Yes, oil prices.
The price of oil is lower now than it was a few years ago, when petrol was £1.50 a litre. But the price of oil is in dollars and since Brexit, the exchange rate has changed. Nothing to do with your belief that everything can be blamed on Covid and Boris’ paymasters invading Ukraine.

[pr1]

Yes, oil prices.
The price of oil is lower now than it was a few years ago, when petrol was £1.50 a litre. But the price of oil is in dollars and since Brexit, the exchange rate has changed. Nothing to do with your belief that everything can be blamed on Covid and Boris’ paymasters invading Ukraine.

How many years ago are you talking?
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/cru...-history-chart

[BlasterBates]

The UK will probably rejoin the single market. Average incomes were higher and everyone was clearly better off when the UK was in the EU. Since leaving the EU, the UK has seen the biggest fall in household income on record. So much for the myth of employers pushing wages down when the UK was in the EU.

[WTFH]

How many years ago are you talking?
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/cru...-history-chart

August 2013 - Oil $107 a barrel.
May 2022 - Oil $106 a barrel.

[pr1]

August 2013 - Oil $107 a barrel.
May 2022 - Oil $106 a barrel.

August 2013 - Oil $107 a barrel
USA petrol $ 3.645/gal
UK petrol £ 1.37/l
$1 = £0.645

May 2022 - Oil $106 a barrel
USA petrol $ 4.545 /gal (+25%)
UK petrol £ 1.74/l (+27%)
$1 = £0.791 (+23%)

from https://www.racfoundation.org/data/u...ices-over-time
and https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...te_nus_dpg&f=m
and https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...o=GBP&view=10Y

The price of oil is lower now than it was a few years ago, when petrol was £1.50 a litre. But the price of oil is in dollars and since Brexit, the exchange rate has changed. Nothing to do with your belief that everything can be blamed on Covid and Boris’ paymasters invading Ukraine.

disagree