Biggest ad campaign since WW2

[darmstadt]

Brexit: Don't underestimate Boris Johnson, EU warned - BBC News

When asked if he stood by his previous comment that the chances of a no-deal Brexit were a "million to one", the prime minister said: "Provided there is sufficient goodwill and common sense on the part of our partners, that is exactly where I would put the odds."

A very dangerous assumption....

Boris Johnson says that a No Deal Brexit is a “million to one” possibility. And yet he’s set up a special cabinet committee, meeting daily, to prepare for No Deal which Michael Gove says is now the Government’s “No 1 priority”......so to summarise, the Government’s No. 1 priority is a million to one possibility.

[BrilloPad]

Boris Johnson says that a No Deal Brexit is a “million to one” possibility. And yet he’s set up a special cabinet committee, meeting daily, to prepare for No Deal which Michael Gove says is now the Government’s “No 1 priority”......so to summarise, the Government’s No. 1 priority is a million to one possibility.

I think he said the EU has no goodwill and no common sense.

[AtW]

The only reason to prepare for something that is "Million in one" possibility if and only if the damage from that event is expected to be very massive.

[darmstadt]

I think he said the EU has no goodwill and no common sense.

Nor has Johnson who said:

The people who bet against Britain are going to lose their shirts.

Some people aren't, primarily his mates:

“A lot of big foreign exchange and hedge fund type people [are] probably looking at what’s coming out the UK as almost close to a free lunch... [A lot] are saying thank goodness for Boris, he’s giving us a chance to make some money.”

[BlasterBates]

You don't need to prepare for something that is good, so maybe "project fear" had a point.

[Mordac]

Like the ERG, Boris,... ?

What about Soros? He's not funding the Remain campaign for the good of his health. There must be billions at stake for him, or he wouldn't be sticking his cash into a cause for which he surely has no sentiment for. Unless subverting democracy is a weekend hobby?

[Old Greg]

The only reason to prepare for something that is "Million in one" possibility if and only if the damage from that event is expected to be very massive.

Broadly speaking, if you are spending £100,000,000 to mitigate a risk with a 1 in 1,000,000 likelihood of occurring, the value of the mitigation in the event of the risk materialising is around £100,000,000,000,000 (in current terms, not in future hyperinflationary terms).

Of course, this is all a bit of fun, because Johnson is lying through his teeth when he says it's a 1 in 1,000,000 chance. So don't put too much faith in him when he says he will definitely bring the UK out of the EU in October.

[WTFH]

Broadly speaking, if you are spending £100,000,000 to mitigate a risk with a 1 in 1,000,000 likelihood of occurring, the value of the mitigation in the event of the risk materialising is around £100,000,000,000,000 (in current terms, not in future hyperinflationary terms).

Of course, this is all a bit of fun, because Johnson is lying through his teeth when he says it's a 1 in 1,000,000 chance. So don't put too much faith in him when he says he will definitely bring the UK out of the EU in October.

But also, he's not spending £100mill to mitigate a risk, but to make people aware that the risk exists.

Surely instead of giving money to his mates to come up with a campaign slogan (How about "Take BACK risk"? ), perhaps he could just reuse the advertising from the Remain group, you know the stuff that got branded "Project Fear" by Con Dummings.

[PCTNN]

It's funny how he's already started to play the role of the victim and try to blame the EU for his imminent failure.

No-deal Brexit up to the EU, says Boris Johnson - BBC News

[Whorty]

Maybe Johnson is a Pratchett fan .....

Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.