Finally, we're discussing trade!

[BlasterBates]

Well it could well do, if not them, then their children.

That net £10B a year needs to be spent somewhere on something. It's not like we'll be getting it back in a tax cut.

And if it doesn't? Then maybe we can look forward to a hard-left government determined to make the rich pay ( aka anyone on more than £30k a year ).

Hopefully then their children will start talking to them again.

[tomtomagain]

Hopefully then their children will start talking to them again.

I reckon that most people are talking to each other anyway. It's not as if BREXIT is really as at the front of everyone's thoughts ... especially in the run up the Xmas.

And anyway, the kids will need somewhere to stay now that Uni has broken up, better not antagonise the olds too much.

I don't think I have heard anyone ( in real life ) actually talk about BREXIT for the last year. Most people are probably just in wait-and-see mode.

[BlasterBates]

I reckon that most people are talking to each other anyway. It's not as if BREXIT is really as at the front of everyone's thoughts ... especially in the run up the Xmas.

And anyway, the kids will need somewhere to stay now that Uni has broken up, better not antagonise the olds too much.

I don't think I have heard anyone ( in real life ) actually talk about BREXIT for the last year. Most people are probably just in wait-and-see mode.

Well we will see, if the economy continues to hum along no harm done, but if it crashes then by the time the realisation has sunk in, it will be too late to do anything and everyone will hate the Tories for ever, which is what David Davis's political assistant said.

[Whorty]

They should have moved the EU parliament to Middlesbrough. That would have greatly boosted the local economy and helped with the vote.

Have you ever been to Middlesbrough?

[BrilloPad]

Have you ever been to Middlesbrough?

You are right. Bradford would be better....

[meridian]

No, his point is that Continuity Remain

Continuity Remain? Today is the first time I've heard that expression, what does it mean? The only other context I've heard "Continuity" in relation to a group is with the IRA, is this what you mean?

You've argued very well up to this point, I would have thought that this was beneath you.

selectively (miss)quotes him as having advocated membership of the EEA before the referendum. He is not, and has never, advocated EEA membership, only the benefits of mutual access.

The only one misquoting him is you. The original link I provided says, and the quote by him is, "no one is threatening our place in the single market".

Regardless, my point is that Vote Leave stood on a platform of precisely the opposite, along with the leaders of Remain. It isn't a particularly nuanced point that I'm making here, it's very straightforward.

It's not nuanced at all, you've reduced the argument to a specificity of Vote Leave rather than the Leave campaign, which included many other prominent leave supporters.

As independently as I can find out (there are many claims either way dating before the referendum), the claim is "half true":

https://theferret.scot/single-market-eu-brexit-vote/

Britain’s relationship with the single market was at stake during the Brexit referendum, even if it was not explicitly on the ballot paper. Ian Blackford’s argument that people did not vote to exit the single market is partially true. Before the vote, there were mixed messages from the Leave side about the future of trading access. However, there were clear warnings that an end to freedom of movement would be very difficult while staying inside the market.

It's a good thing the Norway option is the will of the people, though (ie the majority of all voters), otherwise we might be discounting it:

UK voters back Norway-style Brexit, poll reveals

[jamesbrown]

If you've never heard the expression Continuity Remain, you haven't been listening too closely. It's the standard phrase for the ongoing Remain campaign, post June 2016, not something I've made up (and, no, there is certainly no IRA connotation, at least not one that I intend). Honestly, I don't see much value in arguing over the terms of the referendum. Invariably, that's where Remainers want to take it, because they still haven't accepted the result and want to re-fight the terms (see Hannan's article for the plethora of outright lies by Remain during that same campaign, which I haven't repeated here ). Until now, you've been arguing quite well, and I would've thought that re-fighting the terms was beneath you. Happy to discuss the future though

[jamesbrown]

It's a good thing the Norway option is the will of the people, though (ie the majority of all voters), otherwise we might be discounting it:

UK voters back Norway-style Brexit, poll reveals

I don't think polling offers a sensible route to discussion about what happens next. Surely, that's obvious from recent polling "successes", especially for nuanced questions like this. There are as many outright contradictions from polling as polls themselves.

Surely, you'd agree that remaining in the EU makes far more sense than EEA? I see no argument for EEA, except from Continuity Remain () who see Brexit as "damage limitation". Surely you can see that the sensible ground over which to fight is either remaining in the EU or leaving in substance (i.e. CETA or thereabouts)?

[meridian]

I don't think polling offers a sensible route to discussion about what happens next. Surely, that's obvious from recent polling "successes", especially for nuanced questions like this. There are as many outright contradictions from polling as polls themselves.

Surely, you'd agree that remaining in the EU makes far more sense than EEA? I see no argument for EEA, except from Continuity Remain () who see Brexit as "damage limitation". Surely you can see that the sensible ground over which to fight is either remaining in the EU or leaving in substance (i.e. CETA or thereabouts)?

Polling makes sense from the point of view of understanding what options the public are (were?) interested in. The “will of the people” has been bandied around so much by May, but I don’t think she actually knows what that will is. Given that the referendum was advisory (ie. not legally binding, there is no recourse in court if it is not implemented) that in itself can be seen as a poll.

I certainly agree that staying in the EU makes more sense than the EEA. However, it is, technically, outside the EU, the question of which was the only option on the ballot paper. EEA is possibly the only solution on the table that we know of that makes economic sense AND fulfils the referendum ballot.

The two “sensible”options are not really options. Staying in the EU without serious changes to the way that the UK is governed (and I mean by HMG here, not the EU) would continue to split the country. Maybe not open civil war, but about as uncivil as it could be for a very long time. CETA is not an option due to services, agriculture, and Ireland, as I’ve mentioned before. The EU would have to throw Ireland under the bus for that to happen, and doing that would panic every other small EU nation with a risk of destabilising the EU. It’s not going to happen.

[jamesbrown]

Polling makes sense from the point of view of understanding what options the public are (were?) interested in. The “will of the people” has been bandied around so much by May, but I don’t think she actually knows what that will is. Given that the referendum was advisory (ie. not legally binding, there is no recourse in court if it is not implemented) that in itself can be seen as a poll.

I certainly agree that staying in the EU makes more sense than the EEA. However, it is, technically, outside the EU, the question of which was the only option on the ballot paper. EEA is possibly the only solution on the table that we know of that makes economic sense AND fulfils the referendum ballot.

The two “sensible”options are not really options. Staying in the EU without serious changes to the way that the UK is governed (and I mean by HMG here, not the EU) would continue to split the country. Maybe not open civil war, but about as uncivil as it could be for a very long time. CETA is not an option due to services, agriculture, and Ireland, as I’ve mentioned before. The EU would have to throw Ireland under the bus for that to happen, and doing that would panic every other small EU nation with a risk of destabilising the EU. It’s not going to happen.

EEA really only fulfills the result in the most technocratic sense, which is deeply ironic. To interpret the vote in that way would be far more dangerous than to argue for, and deliver, a second referendum on the "terms", with an option to reject the terms and remain. Remaining couldn't happen without a second referendum. The EEA is leaving in name only; it's tantamount to renaming all the institutions of the EU for a domestic audience and then rejoining those renamed institutions. Let's be part of the "UK-EU Unified Market" and the "UK-EU Unified Customs Zone". This is precisely why May has rejected that approach. She hasn't got much right, but she is right about EEA, because she knows that to advocate this is to treat the electorate as idiots. The EEA is the worst of all possible worlds, because it is substantively inferior to EU membership and it continues the Remain tradition of treating Leave voters like idiots (it's here that Remainer's have a particular blind spot, which was present throughout the campaign). That would indeed be a very uncivil outcome, which neither of us wants.

Ireland is a tricky one, but I suspect it will require a second-tier approach (w/r to the Phase 1 formulation), namely "specific solutions". I think this is one area of the CETA "+" that will be achievable (along with security cooperation), i.e. UK-wide alignment in the specific areas of the GFA. Agriculture and Ireland are essentially inseparable. In terms of services, it's true that CETA and FTAs in general are weak on services, but I'd want to see some further analysis about the economic impacts of CETA, via services, first. For example, here's some analysis to the contrary:

https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog...itish-economy/