Reply to: One more reason to leave the EU

[doodab]

Well, you see it as if we're creating problems, but I see migration as largely inevitable and very difficult to control and therefore it's more practical to foresee some migration flows and manage them. I see continual attempts at controlling migration, and continual attempts failing laughably, because there´s not attention paid to the main pull and push factors. Perhaps that's because we consider ourselves too civilised to simply shoot people at the borders or let them drown in the sea, and I hope we stay that way. But then, while there are huge parts of the world where people like in desperate poverty, and we live in relative wealth it's going to continue. Look at the story in the beeb today; BBC News - Spain Melilla migrants: On a hill, in sight of Europe Huge triple fences can't stop people who are desperate for some economic opportunity. In fact I was amused and could almost raise a round of applause for this bit;
The push factors from their side are simply so strong they outweigh the risks or anything we do to reduce the pull factors. Maybe, just maybe, this is where foreign aid can be used for our own benefit. Or maybe it's where managed circular migration can ease pressures, especially seeing as circular migration is a very common and accepted practise in the cultures many migrants come from.

I'm not saying migration doesn't bring problems, but the current approach to dealing with it looks to me a bit like the Russian Tsars sitting in their palaces and ordering a few more guards to stand at the gate and a few builders to build the walls a bit higher, while the huddled masses outside become more and more desperate and before long, aggressive. Just blocking out migrants is a head-in-sand approach. We have to be a lot smarter.

That's a really insightful post. Good points made.

[Mich the Tester]

Will the many who do go back home have contributed enough to the economy to pay for their kids' free schooling I wonder?

I don't disagree that sooner or later birth rates among minorities will fall, just as eventually they will all integrate and become part of a more uniform society. But this takes decades or even centuries, why must we keep recreating the same problems over and over again?

Well, you see it as if we're creating problems, but I see migration as largely inevitable and very difficult to control and therefore it's more practical to foresee some migration flows and manage them. I see continual attempts at controlling migration, and continual attempts failing laughably, because there´s not attention paid to the main pull and push factors. Perhaps that's because we consider ourselves too civilised to simply shoot people at the borders or let them drown in the sea, and I hope we stay that way. But then, while there are huge parts of the world where people like in desperate poverty, and we live in relative wealth it's going to continue. Look at the story in the beeb today; BBC News - Spain Melilla migrants: On a hill, in sight of Europe Huge triple fences can't stop people who are desperate for some economic opportunity. In fact I was amused and could almost raise a round of applause for this bit;

' Some of them use the first fence on the Moroccan side as a catapult, to hurl themselves on to the third fence, from where they can jump down into Melilla.

The push factors from their side are simply so strong they outweigh the risks or anything we do to reduce the pull factors. Maybe, just maybe, this is where foreign aid can be used for our own benefit. Or maybe it's where managed circular migration can ease pressures, especially seeing as circular migration is a very common and accepted practise in the cultures many migrants come from.

I'm not saying migration doesn't bring problems, but the current approach to dealing with it looks to me a bit like the Russian Tsars sitting in their palaces and ordering a few more guards to stand at the gate and a few builders to build the walls a bit higher, while the huddled masses outside become more and more desperate and before long, aggressive. Just blocking out migrants is a head-in-sand approach. We have to be a lot smarter.

[SaltyLevels]

There was an interesting article somewhere, regarding the future of mankind in that eventually we'll all (the educated ones) end up the same colour and far taller (hairless bodies too) through centuries of racial interbreeding.

The underclass will be small and look like trolls

I hope by then we've got over the parochial attitudes we currently have.

[xoggoth]

Polish migration is permanent and how much will turn out to be transitory or circular. Poland's economic growth would suggest the pull factors over there are growing and the trend may stop or slowly reverse. Polish culture may go through a similar secularisation to Irish, Italian or Spanish culture leading to a similar fall in birth rates.

Will the many who do go back home have contributed enough to the economy to pay for their kids' free schooling I wonder?

I don't disagree that sooner or later birth rates among minorities will fall, just as eventually they will all integrate and become part of a more uniform society. But this takes decades or even centuries, why must we keep recreating the same problems over and over again?

[Mich the Tester]

Female immigrants lead to UK baby boom - FT.com

Bugger! Gone over my 8 free articles for this month!

Yes, Poles have a higher birth rate than other EU nationalities, although I wonder if that's offset by Italians (who form a large proportion of EU migrants recently) having very low birth rates. I also wonder how much Polish migration is permanent and how much will turn out to be transitory or circular. Poland's economic growth would suggest the pull factors over there are growing and the trend may stop or slowly reverse. Polish culture may go through a similar secularisation to Irish, Italian or Spanish culture leading to a similar fall in birth rates. Or possibly the urbanisation of migrants leading to lower birth rates in the second generation. While the numbers are unknowns, what is pretty certain is that a big rich city like London will attract national AND international migrants and it's better for everyone if governments take account of that.

I also think Britain might reduce the incentives to less desirable migrants by reinstating the difference between residence based benefits (like income support) and contribution based benefits, which would enable the UK to quite legitimately send away EU migrants who can't support themselves without resorting to the state (excepting of course contribution based employee insurance), as the Belgian government has just done, telling 2000 Dutch people to leave who were not working, not contributing but claiming residence based benefits. This was a true bugger up by the Labour government in Britain. Free money, apparently!

But then it's difficult to comment as I can't read the article!

[xoggoth]

Is it? Are birth rates among other EU nationalities much higher than among Britons?

Official data show that more than a quarter of all births are to non-UK born women, which has boosted the population aged 0 to 8 years by nearly 300,000 since the last census in 2001. Polish women overtook those from Pakistan as the single largest group of foreign-born mothers in 2010 and 2011, accounting for more than 10 per cent of births within this group.

Female immigrants lead to UK baby boom - FT.com

[Mich the Tester]

Interesting. It's my feeling that any attempt to reform or renegotiate our relationship with the EU will quickly hit a brick wall, but for now it suits the politicians to talk about reform as it seems to offer a "third way". Smoke & Mirrors IMO. We should leave the EU.

Yes, it's your 'feeling', but I don't think your feeling is right on this; there is as much frustration at the current workings, or the highly politicised nature of the EU, in Holland, Denmark and Austria as there is in the UK, and that frustration is growing in Germany and France; the room for negotiation is getting bigger and bigger.

But then if you live in the UK, hear the conversations in the UK, and primarily read the UK's largely eurosceptic press (on the right at least), you wouldn't get that impression.

Anyway, I'm fooking bored of the whole thing; let's face it, facts aren't going to determine the matter, emotions are, and there's no arguing with emotions. Although the timing of a referendum or future election will be interesting given UKIP's demographics.

[Platypus]

Well, let's wait and see what can be negotiated. I think a lot of you will be confounded by the results, because I actually see a lot of what's going on on this side of the North Sea. But let's not let knowledge get in the way of a good old harrumph.

Interesting. It's my feeling that any attempt to reform or renegotiate our relationship with the EU will quickly hit a brick wall, but for now it suits the politicians to talk about reform as it seems to offer a "third way". Smoke & Mirrors IMO. We should leave the EU.

[Mich the Tester]

The only way we'd have a chance of reform is we could kick France and Germany out of the EU they hold all the strings, realistically leaving or at least threatening to leave (and meaning it) is our only option

Well, let's wait and see what can be negotiated. I think a lot of you will be confounded by the results, because I actually see a lot of what's going on on this side of the North Sea. But let's not let knowledge get in the way of a good old harrumph. Anyway, I was simply pointing out the gaping hole in the logic of a rather weak sockie and not intending to go through the boring, repetitive debate about the EU all over a-bleedin-gain.

[MicrosoftBob]

For the hundredth time, I AM NOT, NEVER HAVE BEEN, AND NEVER WILL BE this Gricer bot that you're all so obsessed with. Neither, for that matter, am I a female impersonator.

Do you like the Macc Lads ?

[MicrosoftBob]

Oh well if you care about accuracy, you might have noticed that I am not an 'EU cheerleader', I simply hold a more nuanced opinion on the in/out (false) dichotomy than some others; I call for Britain to stay in and reform instead of leaving and trying to do some deal afterwards. That's not exactly a wholesale approval of everything the EU does, now, is it?


But then I suspect that accuracy doesn't matter.

The only way we'd have a chance of reform is we could kick France and Germany out of the EU they hold all the strings, realistically leaving or at least threatening to leave (and meaning it) is our only option

[MicrosoftBob]

You can't overestimate people's stupidity.

Don't underestimate the power of stupid people in groups, that's how governments get elected

[Mich the Tester]

For the hundredth time, I AM NOT, NEVER HAVE BEEN, AND NEVER WILL BE this Gricer bot that you're all so obsessed with. Neither, for that matter, am I a female impersonator.

Oh well if you care about accuracy, you might have noticed that I am not an 'EU cheerleader', I simply hold a more nuanced opinion on the in/out (false) dichotomy than some others; I call for Britain to stay in and reform instead of leaving and trying to do some deal afterwards. That's not exactly a wholesale approval of everything the EU does, now, is it?


But then I suspect that accuracy doesn't matter.

[Mich the Tester]

Lots of factors in NHS problems. On the other hand, the problem of shortage of school places really is largely to do with EU membership.

Immigration is causing shortage of school places. But the BBC doesn't want to know – Telegraph Blogs

Is it? Are birth rates among other EU nationalities much higher than among Britons? Or is this more to do with migration from outside the EU? Either way, if you have a city like London, you're going to attract migrants from all over the place, from within the UK as well, so you may as well take account of that. As I've said, the influx of immigrants, even without EU membership, was predictable to a great extent simply because it's easier and cheaper to move around than in the past and there's the huge wealth disparities between, for example, Britain, and poorer countries.

[Gittins Gal]

Or bring back Gricer.

For the hundredth time, I AM NOT, NEVER HAVE BEEN, AND NEVER WILL BE this Gricer bot that you're all so obsessed with. Neither, for that matter, am I a female impersonator.