Reply to: Inflation

[WTFH]

Actually it was the ONS suggesting we do that.

No, the ONS was showing that IF we didn't have the highest inflation rate in the G7 then things would be not quite as bad.

[vetran]

Yes, removing the effects of Brexit and the pound slumping against major currencies, we’re probably flying high. Unfortunately, the figure is the figure, even when you try to sugar coat it.

Actually it was the ONS suggesting we do that.

[WTFH]

Hmm

Yes, removing the effects of Brexit and the pound slumping against major currencies, we’re probably flying high. Unfortunately, the figure is the figure, even when you try to sugar coat it.

[vetran]

I see the UK trade deficit has hit a new record of £27.9billion for 2022Q2
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...uktrade/latest

• Removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit excluding precious metals narrowed by £2.4 billion to £22.6 billion in Quarter 2 2022.

Hmm

[vetran]

Actually it looks like a downward trend:

Jan-Mar 2019 EU exports - 45,818
Jan Mar 2022 EU exports - 42,019

That is an 8% drop in exports in goods.

Service exports to the EU have fallen by nearly 20%

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/services-trade-mind-the-gap/

This is unsustainable and the UK will probably end up renegotiating the deal so that is more like it was before leaving the EU.

Jan 2016 10,758 (3 years before Jan 2019 and before BrexitGeddon!)

Jan 2019 14,668
Feb 2019 14,954
Mar 2019 16,196
Apr 2019 12,905

Jan 2022 11, 870-is this bigger than Jan 2016?
Feb 2022 14,945
Mar 2022 15,204
Apr 2022 16,441 - oh heavens is this number bigger than Apr 2019????????

Yep compare peak with peak selectively and ignore the pandemic it almost looks like you have a point. You may do well at Ponzi or boiler room schemes.


So 2018 to 2021 our service exports have fallen by £38 billion but our service imports have also fallen by £40 billion so our service trade balance has improved by 2 Billion? O my deity! the sky is falling in chicken little!

On traditional exports we have dropped by £44B but imports have also dropped by 37B we then have an increased deficit that wouldn't buy a little PPE. This is despite a pandemic in full flow which may have affected trade a little.

[WTFH]

I see the UK trade deficit has hit a new record of £27.9billion for 2022Q2
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...uktrade/latest

[BlasterBates]

crayons out

looks like an upward trend to me despite covid & brexit

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...y-trade-value/

draw a straight line.

Actually it looks like a downward trend:

Jan-Mar 2019 EU exports - 45,818
Jan Mar 2022 EU exports - 42,019

That is an 8% drop in exports in goods.

Service exports to the EU have fallen by nearly 20%

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/services-trade-mind-the-gap/

This is unsustainable and the UK will probably end up renegotiating the deal so that is more like it was before leaving the EU.

[WTFH]

crayons out

looks like an upward trend to me despite covid & brexit

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...y-trade-value/

draw a straight line.

I think you’re confusing the Imports one with the Exports. Since about 2009, the balance base been getting worse, and over the last 6 years, it’s not improving.

[vetran]

Err, no. Read it again. TOTAL exports. Not EU exports.

But the EU does, or rather did, account for half of UK exports.
So, given the adjustments for our basket case currency and inflation, our exports have dropped a lot. Wonder why.

crayons out

looks like an upward trend to me despite covid & brexit

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...y-trade-value/

draw a straight line.

[Smartie]

so you agree exports to the EU are higher than 2021 (+17.8%) and 2018 (+6.1%) ? Exports to outside are higher than 2021 & 2018.

Err, no. Read it again. TOTAL exports. Not EU exports.

But the EU does, or rather did, account for half of UK exports.
So, given the adjustments for our basket case currency and inflation, our exports have dropped a lot. Wonder why.

[Smartie]

Well, we need to compare figures when looking at a 3rd currency, if you’re only looking at one side of transactions. If you are exporting/importing then exchange rates have a big impact.
April 2018 £1 = $1.43
April 2022 £1 = $1.24

So if the local currency has dropped 13% in value and your exports have increased 6.1% in local currency, then in terms of global market, you’re export business is shrinking. (See the other thread about oil prices).

Out trade deficit has increased considerably, our currency has lost value, and you’ve got crayons stuck up your nose.

Spot on, and not only that but we have 9% inflation at the moment and I don't believe that those figures are adjusted for inflation are they?
So the actual figures are even worse.

[WTFH]

so you agree exports to the EU are higher than 2021 (+17.8%) and 2018 (+6.1%) ? Exports to outside are higher than 2021 & 2018.

Where are the cliff like penalties for leaving the EU you dream of?

Exports are clearly doing better despite Covid and Brexit. Yes imports are higher but we weren't talking about that. Your assertion was that a third of companies had stopped exporting to the EU yet the figures show exports rose.

do we need crayons?

Well, we need to compare figures when looking at a 3rd currency, if you’re only looking at one side of transactions. If you are exporting/importing then exchange rates have a big impact.
April 2018 £1 = $1.43
April 2022 £1 = $1.24

So if the local currency has dropped 13% in value and your exports have increased 6.1% in local currency, then in terms of global market, you’re export business is shrinking. (See the other thread about oil prices).

Out trade deficit has increased considerably, our currency has lost value, and you’ve got crayons stuck up your nose.

[AtW]

What's a plasma TV?

Took a while for OLED to beat it

[vetran]

[QUOTE=Smartie;n4222826]

Thank goodness all those small producers who can't fill in forms have got out of the way so the big boys can get on. Oh look facts and figures again!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...rade/april2022

Ah yes, misusing and mis-interpreting data again.

Let's look a little closer at the very 'facts and figures' you're quoting here, further down that same page for the annual trends in imports and exports for the UK.

"Imports of goods in April 2022 were £13.6 billion (35.4%) higher than April 2021 levels, while exports increased by £4.8 billion (17.8%) over the same period (Table 3). As 2021 data were strongly affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the end of the EU exit transition period, we have also compared them against 2018 trade data. Compared with April 2018, imports increased by £12.7 billion (32.4%), while exports rose by £3.4 billion (12.3%).

Total imports and exports of goods increased in the three months to April 2022 compared with the same period in 2021. Exports increased by £5.2 billion (6.1%) when compared with the same period in 2018, while imports increased by £33.5 billion (28.5%)."

Here's another quote from the ONS in the previous month's report "The total trade in goods and services deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £14.9 billion to £25.2 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2022, reaching the largest deficit since records began in 1997."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...rade/march2022

So, if you really think what you posted supports your assertion that UK exports are doing well, you really need to get yourself to Specsavers. Or maybe Brainsavers.

so you agree exports to the EU are higher than 2021 (+17.8%) and 2018 (+6.1%) ? Exports to outside are higher than 2021 & 2018.

Where are the cliff like penalties for leaving the EU you dream of?

Exports are clearly doing better despite Covid and Brexit. Yes imports are higher but we weren't talking about that. Your assertion was that a third of companies had stopped exporting to the EU yet the figures show exports rose.

do we need crayons?

[Smartie]

[QUOTE=vetran;n4222689]

Thank goodness all those small producers who can't fill in forms have got out of the way so the big boys can get on. Oh look facts and figures again!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...rade/april2022

Ah yes, misusing and mis-interpreting data again.

Let's look a little closer at the very 'facts and figures' you're quoting here, further down that same page for the annual trends in imports and exports for the UK.

"Imports of goods in April 2022 were £13.6 billion (35.4%) higher than April 2021 levels, while exports increased by £4.8 billion (17.8%) over the same period (Table 3). As 2021 data were strongly affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the end of the EU exit transition period, we have also compared them against 2018 trade data. Compared with April 2018, imports increased by £12.7 billion (32.4%), while exports rose by £3.4 billion (12.3%).

Total imports and exports of goods increased in the three months to April 2022 compared with the same period in 2021. Exports increased by £5.2 billion (6.1%) when compared with the same period in 2018, while imports increased by £33.5 billion (28.5%)."

Here's another quote from the ONS in the previous month's report "The total trade in goods and services deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £14.9 billion to £25.2 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2022, reaching the largest deficit since records began in 1997."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...rade/march2022

So, if you really think what you posted supports your assertion that UK exports are doing well, you really need to get yourself to Specsavers. Or maybe Brainsavers.