• Visitors can check out the Forum FAQ by clicking this link. You have to register before you can post: click the REGISTER link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. View our Forum Privacy Policy.
  • Want to receive the latest contracting news and advice straight to your inbox? Sign up to the ContractorUK newsletter here. Every sign up will also be entered into a draw to WIN £100 Amazon vouchers!

You are not logged in or you do not have permission to access this page. This could be due to one of several reasons:

  • You are not logged in. If you are already registered, fill in the form below to log in, or follow the "Sign Up" link to register a new account.
  • You may not have sufficient privileges to access this page. Are you trying to edit someone else's post, access administrative features or some other privileged system?
  • If you are trying to post, the administrator may have disabled your account, or it may be awaiting activation.

Previously on "Is a an economic depression coming?"

Collapse

  • ladymuck
    replied
    Originally posted by scooterscot View Post
    This is so important. It is not just individuals, airlines too... they'd usually price fix fuel purchases for the next 3-years going forward but even they are holding off during the current debacle.

    If deflation really is coming in a big, spot Gold price is going to get rekt.
    I think airlines are holding off because they're broke!

    I see Lufthansa are after a bailout as they are now technically insolvent.

    Leave a comment:


  • scooterscot
    replied
    Originally posted by Hobosapien View Post
    The magic money tree has been around for a long time, so while they may be busy planting new ones there will be a period of deflation where cash is king (why buy today if not urgently needed when it may be cheaper tomorrow), and only when the economy can support wage rises (i.e. not when there is the threat of mass unemployment) will inflation be used to try to tame the national debt, at which point assets rule over cash.

    This could take years or longer to play out.
    This is so important. It is not just individuals, airlines too... they'd usually price fix fuel purchases for the next 3-years going forward but even they are holding off during the current debacle.

    If deflation really is coming in a big, spot Gold price is going to get rekt.

    Leave a comment:


  • Hobosapien
    replied
    Originally posted by scooterscot View Post
    spot on

    there be many parallels to the late 1930's and the present day, in particular with debt. It should be clear to everyone the US Federal reserve has stated publicly there is no limit to how far they'll go - that should be a wake up call to anyone holding fiat.

    Care to guess how much cash US banks are now required to keep on customer deposits? The truth might scare you.

    The magic money tree has been around for a long time, so while they may be busy planting new ones there will be a period of deflation where cash is king (why buy today if not urgently needed when it may be cheaper tomorrow), and only when the economy can support wage rises (i.e. not when there is the threat of mass unemployment) will inflation be used to try to tame the national debt, at which point assets rule over cash.

    This could take years or longer to play out.

    Leave a comment:


  • BR14
    replied
    i think basel brush is more this:




    or is that dodgyRog?

    Leave a comment:


  • scooterscot
    replied
    Originally posted by GJABS View Post
    My opinion is that there is nothing to indicate there will be a depression - though that doesn't rule it out.
    Depressions like the one that occurred in the 1930's happened due to the collapse of the broad money supply (money/debt pairings created by banks as they offer depositors credit) after the economic over-confidence of the roaring 20's leading to the wall street crash of 1929. This caused a lot of poverty from reduced economic activity and deflation. However that was when the country (the US) was on the gold standard.
    Nowadays the central banks can print narrow money (banknotes and primary bank's accounts with the Fed/Bank of England) allowing them to offset some of the deflation and generate short term boosts to the economy. However doing this won't prevent the loss of confidence leading to loss of desire to lend etc, so the recession/depression will be just as severe, only spread over a greater period of time.
    Coronavirus is not an indication of a loss of confidence in the system, it's "just" a bad thing that happened. Investors are still as confident about the future relative to the current depressed market valuations as they were before the virus came along.

    spot on

    there be many parallels to the late 1930's and the present day, in particular with debt. It should be clear to everyone the US Federal reserve has stated publicly there is no limit to how far they'll go - that should be a wake up call to anyone holding fiat.

    Care to guess how much cash US banks are now required to keep on customer deposits? The truth might scare you.

    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by BR14 View Post
    you mean it isn't?

    Well this is the mental picture (top in posing pouch) I have of Assgoo standing next to NAT (as his eye recovers after a nasty Gimp suit accident) on the way to service the bank holiday trade for NLUK.

    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    Sadly I have to agree with Assgoo a lot of people will suffer and many will feel the bite of unemployment.

    I do not however take pleasure in this or get excited about abusing them so gladly I am nothing like him!

    Leave a comment:


  • BR14
    replied
    Originally posted by vetran View Post
    FTFY.

    AssGoo & Old Smeg are near to claiming Blackadder was historically accurate.
    you mean it isn't?

    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by northernladuk View Post
    I bet they can hand you you ass on a plate though.
    FTFY.

    AssGoo & Old Smeg are near to claiming Blackadder was historically accurate.

    Leave a comment:


  • GJABS
    replied
    Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post
    What?

    Leave a comment:


  • ladymuck
    replied
    I dunno about an economic depression but there's definitely the other type (not the weather one either) coming up if some things aren't relaxed

    Leave a comment:


  • DimPrawn
    replied
    Originally posted by GJABS View Post
    My opinion is that there is nothing to indicate there will be a depression - though that doesn't rule it out.
    Depressions like the one that occurred in the 1930's happened due to the collapse of the broad money supply (money/debt pairings created by banks as they offer depositors credit) after the economic over-confidence of the roaring 20's leading to the wall street crash of 1929. This caused a lot of poverty from reduced economic activity and deflation. However that was when the country (the US) was on the gold standard.
    Nowadays the central banks can print narrow money (banknotes and primary bank's accounts with the Fed/Bank of England) allowing them to offset some of the deflation and generate short term boosts to the economy. However doing this won't prevent the loss of confidence leading to loss of desire to lend etc, so the recession/depression will be just as severe, only spread over a greater period of time.
    Coronavirus is not an indication of a loss of confidence in the system, it's "just" a bad thing that happened. Investors are still as confident about the future relative to the current depressed market valuations as they were before the virus came along.

    Leave a comment:


  • GJABS
    replied
    My opinion is that there is nothing to indicate there will be a depression - though that doesn't rule it out.
    Depressions like the one that occurred in the 1930's happened due to the collapse of the broad money supply (money/debt pairings created by banks as they offer depositors credit) after the economic over-confidence of the roaring 20's leading to the wall street crash of 1929. This caused a lot of poverty from reduced economic activity and deflation. However that was when the country (the US) was on the gold standard.
    Nowadays the central banks can print narrow money (banknotes and primary bank's accounts with the Fed/Bank of England) allowing them to offset some of the deflation and generate short term boosts to the economy. However doing this won't prevent the loss of confidence leading to loss of desire to lend etc, so the recession/depression will be just as severe, only spread over a greater period of time.
    Coronavirus is not an indication of a loss of confidence in the system, it's "just" a bad thing that happened. Investors are still as confident about the future relative to the current depressed market valuations as they were before the virus came along.

    Leave a comment:


  • BlasterBates
    replied
    This is a difficult market as staying in cash isn't necessarily going to work, with helicopter money being distributed in huge quantities with more of it to come, there could be a pick up in inflation.

    You need to balance between equities cash and gold.

    Leave a comment:


  • Whorty
    replied
    Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post
    Rambling of an unemployed lockdown alcoholic. Sad really when it happens....
    You say sad, I say it's entertaining watching Sassy and his imbecilic drivel

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X