Reply to: 456 Positive Covid-19 in UK as of 11th March

[AtW]

Meanwhile, NZ are still chasing covid-zero

As they should given that they control their borders, thanks to being surrounded by water.

Oh, and having responsible politicians.

[d000hg]

They have been running with zero restrictions for months before we (and everyone else) dropped ours though. Whether it will be practicable with Delta remains to be seen. But as they're only at 20" vaccination, they don't have much choice but to carry on this path.

[ladymuck]

Meanwhile, NZ are still chasing covid-zero

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58241619


New Zealand has announced a snap lockdown after a man tested positive for Covid, the first case in six months.

The case was detected in Auckland, which will be in lockdown for a week, while the rest of the country will be in lockdown for three days.

Authorities say they are working on the assumption that the new case was the Delta variant.

Just around 20% of its population has been fully vaccinated.

Coromandel, a coastal town where the infected person had visited, will be in lockdown for seven days too.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the toughest "level 4" rules were required - closing schools, offices and all businesses with only essential services remaining operational.

"I want to assure New Zealand that we have planned for this eventuality. Going hard and early has worked for us before," she said.

The patient is a 58-year-old man, who is believed to have been infectious since last Thursday.

There are at least 23 potential sites of transmission.

[Whorty]

6 March 2020, 15:44 -

Hindsight ... isn't it great

[AtW]

6 March 2020, 15:44 -

..... out of 20,338 tested

Create a news story and suddenly the NHS gets swamped by idiots all in a panic that they have the virus

163 out of 20,338 tested ... what a waste of resources!

[WTFH]

Which bit is wrong, so far?

With no measures, it would be around 1.4 million (or as you lied, “2 million”)
With basic hygiene, drops to 900,000

With social distancing, drops to around 110,000

Like I said all along

Looks like I was wrong.

[Whorty]

Let me guess, arts degree?

R14 | BA (Hons) Arts and Humanities | Open University

[minestrone]

That's not the ONS figures, that the DHSC figures.

On 30th April, DHSC were reporting 26,771 total dead in the UK.
ONS base it on the date of death, so a death that took place in April but wasn't reported until 5th May would be included in their figures.
ONS figures to 30th April were 33,841
Since 30th April, DHSC have reported about 8,000 deaths.

Even if all deaths reported to DHSC up to 5th May were actually April ones, there's still over 5,000 to add on.

Let me guess, arts degree?

[WTFH]

It's 34716 registered Corona linked deaths in the UK as of this morning

That's not the ONS figures, that the DHSC figures.

On 30th April, DHSC were reporting 26,771 total dead in the UK.
ONS base it on the date of death, so a death that took place in April but wasn't reported until 5th May would be included in their figures.
ONS figures to 30th April were 33,841
Since 30th April, DHSC have reported about 8,000 deaths.

Even if all deaths reported to DHSC up to 5th May were actually April ones, there's still over 5,000 to add on.

[Eirikur]

34,000? Are you sure?

According to the ONS, it was over 33,800 up to 30th April. So to get to 34,000 would mean we're averaging 10 a day since then.
And that's based on the figures that we know of.
Then again, last time I checked, the UK figures are over 3,000 new cases per day, so it's not exactly under control either.

It's 34716 registered Corona linked deaths in the UK as of this morning

[WTFH]

Agreed.

I'm in total agreement with both of you.

Hopefully they'll be better prepared for next winter.

[Gibbon]

I'm not disagreeing with you; I'm merely saying that we imported infected patients back into care homes, care homes have a very high proportion of vulnerable people, and we have a high death rate in care homes.

I agree that care homes should be environments that cope with viruses, but clearly they can't.

Agreed.

[Whorty]

But it shouldn't have done in a properly run home, that is the point. Care homes are meant to cope with infections. The other day on the local news they had a privatecare home celebrating VE day, all the old people huddled together with the staff, wearing no PPE. Our lass was going ballistic.

I'm not disagreeing with you; I'm merely saying that we imported infected patients back into care homes, care homes have a very high proportion of vulnerable people, and we have a high death rate in care homes.

I agree that care homes should be environments that cope with viruses, but clearly they can't.

[Gibbon]

Whether they declined or not, the fact is that infected patients were imported into an environment which is enclosed and is surely a high risk location for the spread of viruses. I'm not saying the NHS are at fault for sending the patients back, or the care homes are at fault for not rejecting them (others can apportion blame as they see fit), but the fact that this happened in itself increased the number of infections and deaths in the UK.

But it shouldn't have done in a properly run home, that is the point. Care homes are meant to cope with infections. The other day on the local news they had a privatecare home celebrating VE day, all the old people huddled together with the staff, wearing no PPE. Our lass was going ballistic.

[WTFH]

Really, you're asking which bits are wrong? How about all of it.

You suggested there would be 110,000 deaths with social distancing, and yet we've only had 34,000 to date with death rates reducing. And we've only faced this many deaths because we imported infected patients into care homes, which isn't exactly 'social distancing'.

We were never going to get 1.4 million deaths. The model that predicted that is flawed.

But, by all means keep scare mongering if you see the need, or you can look at the facts. Your choice.

34,000? Are you sure?

According to the ONS, it was over 33,800 up to 30th April. So to get to 34,000 would mean we're averaging 10 a day since then.
And that's based on the figures that we know of.
Then again, last time I checked, the UK figures are over 3,000 new cases per day, so it's not exactly under control either.