Reply to: Stock market - how low will it go

[scooterscot]

Can't see it happening.

Again, not in any position right now but everything is ready when I feel it's time to begin drip feeding in. Will be using an ISA for long term investment - currently don't have any ISAs or shares.

U.S. futures staged a big turnaround from weekend and overnight losses, boosted by the "unlimited QE" announcement this morning. Only to then go and lose nearly all of that recovery during afternoon trade. I must admit I was surprised. But the failure of the senate to vote through a Stimulus bill - twice - was the trigger this time. The bill will be passed and very soon, once the idiots can stop arguing amongst themselves.

But I still see a bottom forming here or say within 10%. Not quite the 4200 level on FTSE but perhaps 4600 and 2000 on the S&P. It's anyone's guess but in the long term the indices will always recover as the weak businesses are weeded out and stronger ones are inducted. We have to hope for an economic recovery else we're all doomed. My friends in I.T. and other industries are losing jobs. It's heartbreaking.

Can't see 4200 happening? Hold that thought... when in doubt, zoom out. This 3-month chart would send shivers down any trader's spine. My concern now is not if we get to 4200, it's will we hold it?

I think if they pass that bill you'll have social unrest. It is surely the largest example yet of privatise the gains, make the losses public.

What would cause the 4200 floor to collapse? Businesses disappearing off the index through bankruptcy or being nationalised by the state. Clearly the state can't nationalise everyone.

[rogerfederer]

Can't see it happening.

Again, not in any position right now but everything is ready when I feel it's time to begin drip feeding in. Will be using an ISA for long term investment - currently don't have any ISAs or shares.

U.S. futures staged a big turnaround from weekend and overnight losses, boosted by the "unlimited QE" announcement this morning. Only to then go and lose nearly all of that recovery during afternoon trade. I must admit I was surprised. But the failure of the senate to vote through a Stimulus bill - twice - was the trigger this time. The bill will be passed and very soon, once the idiots can stop arguing amongst themselves.

But I still see a bottom forming here or say within 10%. Not quite the 4200 level on FTSE but perhaps 4600 and 2000 on the S&P. It's anyone's guess but in the long term the indices will always recover as the weak businesses are weeded out and stronger ones are inducted. We have to hope for an economic recovery else we're all doomed. My friends in I.T. and other industries are losing jobs. It's heartbreaking.

I think you are off your head. The markets barely responded to the stimulus. Just kidding, they did: they went down and are heading down again for obvious reasons.

When sentiment is fear - and appropriate fear at that - people don't spend as much. Home delivery services for goods will plummet.

Losing jobs is not heartbreaking. Losing lives is heartbreaking. Please let's keep perspective. The work is always there to be done, in varying quantities. Being alive is better and we should appreciate what we have in the forthcoming weeks and help those who are definitely going to lose loved ones in all adult age groups.

[jamesbrown]

U.S. futures staged a big turnaround from weekend and overnight losses, boosted by the "unlimited QE" announcement this morning. Only to then go and lose nearly all of that recovery during afternoon trade. I must admit I was surprised. But the failure of the senate to vote through a Stimulus bill - twice - was the trigger this time. The bill will be passed and very soon, once the idiots can stop arguing amongst themselves.

I think there's a general view that Fed interventions have reached their useful limit. Were they in a different position with lots of ammo still left, it might be a different matter. There's no monetary ammo left now and monetary policy isn't really the solution to this crisis anyway. All of the recent central bank interventions have produced a similar response, perhaps with the exception of the ECB intervention w/r to (e.g., Italian) bond yields.

Yes, there will probably be a positive response when the bailout passes, but that might just be another selling opportunity in the short/medium-term. It's guesswork, as you learned today. Drip-feeding makes sense right now, providing you're in this for the long haul (obviously, if you're speculating for the bottom of the market, that's different and a mug's game).

[ChimpMaster]

This will be historical^2

Seriously though if 4200 does not hold, all bets are off. The index is going somewhere it's not been since 1994. Back then Demolition Man was the future.

Can't see it happening.

Again, not in any position right now but everything is ready when I feel it's time to begin drip feeding in. Will be using an ISA for long term investment - currently don't have any ISAs or shares.

U.S. futures staged a big turnaround from weekend and overnight losses, boosted by the "unlimited QE" announcement this morning. Only to then go and lose nearly all of that recovery during afternoon trade. I must admit I was surprised. But the failure of the senate to vote through a Stimulus bill - twice - was the trigger this time. The bill will be passed and very soon, once the idiots can stop arguing amongst themselves.

But I still see a bottom forming here or say within 10%. Not quite the 4200 level on FTSE but perhaps 4600 and 2000 on the S&P. It's anyone's guess but in the long term the indices will always recover as the weak businesses are weeded out and stronger ones are inducted. We have to hope for an economic recovery else we're all doomed. My friends in I.T. and other industries are losing jobs. It's heartbreaking.

[scooterscot]

This will be historical^2

Seriously though if 4200 does not hold, all bets are off. The index is going somewhere it's not been since 1994. Back then Demolition Man was the future.

[Paralytic]

Tomorrow is going to be historical / hysterical. Circuit breakers on standby!

Didn't you say that most days last week?

[scooterscot]

Might fly past the 4600 bottom tomorrow... Did not expect the resistance line (called out in the green box) to act as resistance this low. Tomorrow is going to be historical / hysterical. Circuit breakers on standby!

[BlueSharp]

Markets shooting up today, hold fire.

If stocks go back up quickly, portfolio goes back into profit - win
If stocks crash big time in a few weeks, great buying opportunity - win

Always hold money back.

yup. I have about half of sipp in cash still and will double that as soon as new contract is confirmed with my a MyCo top up.

[BrilloPad]

Always hold money back.

Unless you are a government....

[BlasterBates]

Markets shooting up today, hold fire.

If stocks go back up quickly, portfolio goes back into profit - win
If stocks crash big time in a few weeks, great buying opportunity - win

Always hold money back.

[mogga71]

Not quite there, as the market commentators said on CNBC, it doesn't feel like market capitulation.

You can "nibble" but you still need to keep substantial funds available for what could be a great buying opportunity.

My Verizon stock is now in profit, but that was just a nibble

I'm now waiting for the "big one", when all the hedge funds liquidate their portfolios to pay off their loans.

Am presently placing a shed load into my SIPP from Ltd Company in readiness to go all in with Apple and Shopify when the dust settles. In my eyes will be a fantastic buying opportunity.

[scooterscot]

No rush... this bear market has an easy three years in it before recovery. You may as well wait until there is evidence of consolidation.

The inverted yield curve is as wide AF. Unlike the previous recessions, it is suggesting 2-3 years of downturn before bottom.. And if you consider the state of the world, it kind of fits the present day narrative. Even if the virus was wiped clean in the next 6 months it'll take another year for businesses to get back to where they were, that's us in 20222 without a sweat. And we've not even yet considered the self inflicted economic sanctions.

The UK is not somewhere you want to invest in the next few years. Wait until the trading relationships are really understood and exist in practice.

[BlasterBates]

Not quite there, as the market commentators said on CNBC, it doesn't feel like market capitulation.

You can "nibble" but you still need to keep substantial funds available for what could be a great buying opportunity.

My Verizon stock is now in profit, but that was just a nibble

I'm now waiting for the "big one", when all the hedge funds liquidate their portfolios to pay off their loans.

[northernladuk]

Everyone who's called it right usually got it wrong.

Called it.

[northernladuk]

Everyone who's called it right usually got it wrong.