Reply to: POLAND, how is it getting rich?

[xoggoth]

I wonder if location and climate are significant factors in pace of development.

Why do places on the Mediterranean do worse than more Northerly and inland countries? Maybe it is the same problem as coastal resorts have in the UK, too much reliance on seasonal tourism.

[Bean]

Child benefit is nothing more than a reduction in tax, a recognition that someone with children should pay less tax.

However the Daily "Hitler was a great guy" Mail in true tradition likes to twist the story so that its followers give the foreigners a good kicking.

Not sure how you define those ChBen claimants, that do not pass the minimum earnings threshold, for paying any tax?

Also, not sure why you would sign-off that comment with a , given the part I've bolded

Do you enjoy people giving others 'a good kicking'? - as that's the only inference to be gleaned from your sentence in conjunction with your emoticon......

[Bean]

Your assumptions were:
1. 100% of all foreigner nationals in the UK claiming child benefit were Polish
2. 100% of them were sending these benefits to Poland.

Statistically speaking, 16% of all foreign nationals are Polish. The probability that my figure is more accurate than your figure which is more than 10x it, is very high.

Even going by your own figure, the amount that UK Child Benefit impacts Polish GDP is still less than 1/100 of a percent. And note, that is "of a percent", so you need to divide the number by 100 to get what it actually is.

So when the claims are made on here that the UK Child Benefit is supporting Poland's growth, or that there is a massive amount going from the UK to Poland in benefit fraud that the government show no interest in tackling, it's clearly poppycock. But that won't stop the daily wailers from continuing to say that it's true and deny anyone who proves them wrong again.

I concur.

[WTFH]

I agree, it's hardly an earth-shattering sum, either way.

Though, due to inter/extrapolation from 'not-known' etc., your result (0.00012%) is a good indicator, but it's not a fact.

Due to the need for interpolation and/or assumption (like my own from post #19, clearly stated as impractical), which itself is due to data constraints (not known etc.) - the exact amount is unquantifiable, as previously stated.

I just did the worst-case sums (assuming [impractically] 100% Poles), as that is the maximum the UK could have been sending and it was still not 'a lot' by normal standards...

Your assumptions were:
1. 100% of all foreigner nationals in the UK claiming child benefit were Polish
2. 100% of them were sending these benefits to Poland.

Statistically speaking, 16% of all foreign nationals are Polish. The probability that my figure is more accurate than your figure which is more than 10x it, is very high.

Even going by your own figure, the amount that UK Child Benefit impacts Polish GDP is still less than 1/100 of a percent. And note, that is "of a percent", so you need to divide the number by 100 to get what it actually is.

So when the claims are made on here that the UK Child Benefit is supporting Poland's growth, or that there is a massive amount going from the UK to Poland in benefit fraud that the government show no interest in tackling, it's clearly poppycock. But that won't stop the daily wailers from continuing to say that it's true and deny anyone who proves them wrong again.

[Zigenare]

Child benefit is nothing more than a reduction in tax, a recognition that someone with children should pay less tax.

However the Daily "Hitler was a great guy" Mail in true tradition likes to twist the story so that its followers give the foreigners a good kicking.

Where is the requirement to pay tax listed as a proviso for claiming child benefit?

[BlasterBates]

I agree, it's hardly an earth-shattering sum, either way.

Though, due to inter/extrapolation from 'not-known' etc., your result (0.00012%) is a good indicator, but it's not a fact.

Due to the need for interpolation and/or assumption (like my own from post #19, clearly stated as impractical), which itself is due to data constraints (not known etc.) - the exact amount is unquantifiable, as previously stated.

I just did the worst-case sums (assuming [impractically] 100% Poles), as that is the maximum the UK could have been sending and it was still not 'a lot' by normal standards...

Child benefit is nothing more than a reduction in tax, a recognition that someone with children should pay less tax.

However the Daily "Hitler was a great guy" Mail in true tradition likes to twist the story so that its followers give the foreigners a good kicking.

[Bean]

I've decided to do some fact checking.

We have 7,376,965 families in the UK receiving child benefit. Of those, 20,085 are foreign and not known. That's 0.27%
Those 7,376,965 families are claiming based on 12,847,100 children. Of those, 31,940 are foreign and not known. That's 0.25%

Since the recipients are foreign and not known, then there is no evidence to assume that they are all Polish.
Based on the ONS figures, 16% of foreign nationals living in the UK are Polish.

So of the 7,376,965 families, one could interpolate that 3,214 of them are Polish (0.04% of the total)
In terms of children, the interpolation would be 5,110 that are Polish (0.04% of the total)

Of the £11.6 billion spent on Child Benefit in the UK, the above figures would point to £4.64 million per year going to Polish nationals in total. A smidgen less than the £57.1 million being bandied about earlier in this thread.

Let's go for an exchange rate of $1.3 to £1, that makes Poland's GDP in 2017 as £403.47 billion.
If we keep the daily wailers happy on here and say that every single Polish national claiming child benefit is sending it back to Poland, that means, wait for it...
Child Benefits from the UK would account for 0.0012% of the Polish GDP.

If, instead of the daily wailers opinion, we chose, say 10% of the Poles were sending the money back, then the figure would be 0.00012%

There's an idea of the "unquantifiable" figure mentioned earlier

I agree, it's hardly an earth-shattering sum, either way.

Though, due to inter/extrapolation from 'not-known' etc., your result (0.00012%) is a good indicator, but it's not a fact.

Due to the need for interpolation and/or assumption (like my own from post #19, clearly stated as impractical), which itself is due to data constraints (not known etc.) - the exact amount is unquantifiable, as previously stated.

I just did the worst-case sums (assuming [impractically] 100% Poles), as that is the maximum the UK could have been sending and it was still not 'a lot' by normal standards...

[DoctorStrangelove]

2nd Biggest language spoken in the UK is Polish. Which really annoys the Welsh. Only 19% of Welsh speak Welsh. Mostly only in North and Mid Wales.

There's tidy then.

Oddly enough I don't think it annoys me nearly as much as the interminable station announcements Yng Nghymraeg that by some diktat have to precede the same announcement in English that 99% of the population understand*.

* Apart from some gog living in a cave somewhere down west.

[TheGreenBastard]

Damn this investment lark and getting returns back on it...

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uplo...-Iain-Begg.pdf

Paid less, because we get less back: The EU budget at a glance

Official EU source again.

Another fact is the UK rebate exists for very good reasons: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate

[darmstadt]

Damn this investment lark and getting returns back on it...

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uplo...-Iain-Begg.pdf

... each year since 2000 the UK has paid well below the EU average.
...
...since 1973, the UK has always paid less than Germany, which would be expected since Germany is a larger economy. However, since the rebate was introduced in 1985, the UK has also consistently paid less than France – a similar sized economy – usually by quite a large margin. Moreover, despite the stagnation of the Italian economy since the 1990s, Italy has more often than not paid more into the EU budget than the UK, especially since 2000.

[WTFH]

I've decided to do some fact checking.

We have 7,376,965 families in the UK receiving child benefit. Of those, 20,085 are foreign and not known. That's 0.27%
Those 7,376,965 families are claiming based on 12,847,100 children. Of those, 31,940 are foreign and not known. That's 0.25%

Since the recipients are foreign and not known, then there is no evidence to assume that they are all Polish.
Based on the ONS figures, 16% of foreign nationals living in the UK are Polish.

So of the 7,376,965 families, one could interpolate that 3,214 of them are Polish (0.04% of the total)
In terms of children, the interpolation would be 5,110 that are Polish (0.04% of the total)

Of the £11.6 billion spent on Child Benefit in the UK, the above figures would point to £4.64 million per year going to Polish nationals in total. A smidgen less than the £57.1 million being bandied about earlier in this thread.

Let's go for an exchange rate of $1.3 to £1, that makes Poland's GDP in 2017 as £403.47 billion.
If we keep the daily wailers happy on here and say that every single Polish national claiming child benefit is sending it back to Poland, that means, wait for it...
Child Benefits from the UK would account for 0.0012% of the Polish GDP.

If, instead of the daily wailers opinion, we chose, say 10% of the Poles were sending the money back, then the figure would be 0.00012%

There's an idea of the "unquantifiable" figure mentioned earlier

[BlasterBates]

The Romanian economy has quadrupled in size since joining the EU.

[Zigenare]

Once they were free of the USSR it was inevitable that some Eastern European countries, like Poland and Hungary, would eventually go on to become major economies. Bright people with no social major issues. Can't see it happening soon in some others though like Albania, Serbia or Romania.

Oh I don't know, they seem to be pretty good at exporting criminals to the rest of Europe.

[xoggoth]

Once they were free of the USSR it was inevitable that some Eastern European countries, like Poland and Hungary, would eventually go on to become major economies. Bright people with no social major issues. Can't see it happening soon in some others though like Albania, Serbia or Romania.

[Cirrus]

Please note that this is an Indian cultural thing, nothing racist,