Reply to: Uk inflation accelerates as imports cost more

[NigelJK]

I still remember inflation hitting 15%.

[SueEllen]

Well given that the UK still import a lot of food, and retailers are clearing stock like crazy, maybe a post-recession 3% which then moves down but 6 is a bit much I'd say.

But then we've been at practially 0% inflation (CPI) for two or three years; unless you are predicting a collapse in sterling even further than it has post-brexit (say a another housing bubble could spur that on or something) 6/7 inflation would only really happen with *ahem* a labour government which prints lots of money or a conservative one that bails out more banks.

So uh, prepare for the wurst but hope for the breast?

Guess you've looked at the Tories historical record on borrowing?

If you have been tracking retailers prices you will find most of the prices are the same as the middle of October. They raise them after that so they can lower them and declare an event or sale. It's a well-known illusion.

[henryhooverville]

I am most likely wrong (said it myself so I limit the bashing I get) but I personally can see inflation going pretty high over the next 2-4 years. If I was a betting man, I would expect IT TO HIT 2% spring next year, and then for it to hit 6 or 7% maybe 2019 or 2020 as the bank of England drop the controls and restrictions it has. With public and personal debt being so high, the only possible way to start reducing it in size is to let inflation grow (which then devalues the debt).

I wonder how many big names will go to the wall when this happens.

Well given that the UK still import a lot of food, and retailers are clearing stock like crazy, maybe a post-recession 3% which then moves down but 6 is a bit much I'd say.

But then we've been at practially 0% inflation (CPI) for two or three years; unless you are predicting a collapse in sterling even further than it has post-brexit (say a another housing bubble could spur that on or something) 6/7 inflation would only really happen with *ahem* a labour government which prints lots of money or a conservative one that bails out more banks.

So uh, prepare for the wurst but hope for the breast?

[SueEllen]

Two different local family owned stores that have been in the town since the 1950s have closed down before Christmas. Being small busnesses, they could not sustain the drop in Sterling. The bets are on that the local M&S will go in the New Year.

Local family owned stores only recently got into treating staff like sh*t and most are still too small to screw suppliers.

Some near me in the last 10 years got brought out by another local store who have managed to build an area wide chain.

[WTFH]

Does a man on £2K a day worry about such things?

I assume this question was aimed at me.

No.

[DimPrawn]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...than-two-years

"Import costs surge by more than 15%, highest in 5 years".

And most retailers are discounting for Christmas. I suspect the rate of increase will be even higher next year.

Does a man on £2K a day worry about such things?

[PurpleGorilla]

There are two inflations.

One is what happens for realz and the other one (much lower) is the official Govts measure based on rapidly dropping costs of PS3.

Don't forget the third inflation - house prices - which are now bought with magic beans and quantitative sleazying.

[AtW]

I am most likely wrong (said it myself so I limit the bashing I get) but I personally can see inflation going pretty high over the next 2-4 years. If I was a betting man, I would expect IT TO HIT 2% spring next year, and then for it to hit 6 or 7% maybe 2019 or 2020 as the bank of England drop the controls and restrictions it has. With public and personal debt being so high, the only possible way to start reducing it in size is to let inflation grow (which then devalues the debt). I wonder how many big names will go to the wall when this happens.

There are two inflations.

One is what happens for realz and the other one (much lower) is the official Govts measure based on rapidly dropping costs of PS3.

[vetran]

Not all businesses will suffer, some are thriving:

your "The Donald" sex doll arriving soon?

[BlasterBates]

Not all businesses will suffer, some are thriving:

[jonnyboy]

I am most likely wrong (said it myself so I limit the bashing I get) but I personally can see inflation going pretty high over the next 2-4 years. If I was a betting man, I would expect IT TO HIT 2% spring next year, and then for it to hit 6 or 7% maybe 2019 or 2020 as the bank of England drop the controls and restrictions it has. With public and personal debt being so high, the only possible way to start reducing it in size is to let inflation grow (which then devalues the debt).

I wonder how many big names will go to the wall when this happens.

[AtW]

Crikey, wonder how they managed when we had to devalue the pound.

Probably because a while ago hedging wasn't as wide spread and more products were actually made in UK rather than in China, so that means that big shops would also have to increase prices quickly and that would keep level playing field, where as now small shops are fooked because big ones use hedging advantage while they still have it (so they get much cheaper goods, plus bulk buying power).

[NigelJK]

Crikey, wonder how they managed when we had to devalue the pound.

[Paddy]

Most big retailers all hedged their planned Xmas purchases well before Brexit.

We'll know who didn't in January's "final closing down" sales...

Two different local family owned stores that have been in the town since the 1950s have closed down before Christmas. Being small busnesses, they could not sustain the drop in Sterling. The bets are on that the local M&S will go in the New Year.

[AtW]

Most big retailers all hedged their planned Xmas purchases well before Brexit.

We'll know who didn't in January's "final closing down" sales...