Reply to: FTSE 250

[BlasterBates]

Miners and Oil companies that are heavily weighted in the FTSE aren't really British companies, most of them have their assets else where and are completely unaffected by Brexit. These companies are pushing up the FTSE 100. Domestic British companies have been hammered. It looks dire, but it'll take a few months for it to filter through.

[Old Greg]

Didn't someone on another thread here earlier today claim the FTSE 250 doesn't prove a thing Brexit-wise and it's the FTSE 100 one has to look at?

Well, OK, let's look at the FTSE 100:

2016-06-29 FTSE 100 closes above pre-Brexit level

The Pro-Brexit Telegraph suggests otherwise:

Why we should be looking at the FTSE 250 and not the FTSE 100 to gauge the impact of Brexit

Credit Suisse recently calculated that the constituents of the FTSE 100 collectively make around three-quarters of their money beyond these shores.

Those revenues are earned in foreign currencies, which must be converted back into sterling for reporting purposes; the weaker the pound, the bigger the relative boost those companies get from those foreign earnings. And sterling has got an awful lot weaker in the last couple of days. This effect has put the brakes on the FTSE 100’s recent slide.

Furthermore, many of the constituents of the UK’s blue riband index are miners. They dig stuff up in Africa, price it in dollars and sell it in China. That’s a bit of an over-simplification but you get my point: Brexit is very unlikely to directly affect them.

In fact, if the stuff they are digging up is gold, Brexit is actually a positive – investors have been desperately stockpiling the safe haven asset, and the shares of companies who produce it, since Friday morning. Randgold Resources and Fresnillo, both gold miners, have led the FTSE 100 in the past two days, up 26pc and 22pc respectively, and, together with other natural resources stocks, have helped cushion the index. This is not an indication that all is rosy for UK plc.


A much better gauge of fears about the UK economy is the FTSE 250, which includes smaller and more domestic-focused companies. It fell 7pc yesterday. This was after it tumbled 7.2pc on Friday, its worst one-day drop since 1987. In total it has now dropped 13.6pc since the Brexit vote. There is no firm definition of what constitutes a stock market crash, but a double-digit dip in two days is getting awfully close.

Banks, house builders and travel stocks have borne the brunt of the pain because they are the most sensitive to the UK economy. Shawbrook, Aldermore, Onesavings Bank and Virgin Money have all lost between 40pc and 50pc of their value. Shares in RBS have fallen around 40pc since the referendum vote and Taylor Wimpey, the UK’s biggest house builder, is off nearly 40pc. Foxtons and easyJet have been the first companies to issue profit warnings in the wake of Brexit.

[BlasterBates]

...and as the Brexiters fiddle, the pound touches new lows against the Euro, which is itself a weak currency..

EURGBP=X: Summary for EUR/GBP- Yahoo! Finance

George Soros Warns Brexit Has Unleashed Financial Markets Crisis - Bloomberg

As the IMF said the consequences are between bad and very bad.

[NotAllThere]

tl;dr - drooling, dribbling, drivel

Keep telling yourself that. I'm sure it will all be wonderful.

[CretinWatcher]

The reason I don't look bright to you is that you are too far from the source.

No the reason you don't look bright to anyone with a brain is that you're thick as mince

[CretinWatcher]

You seem to be saying that, despite the fact that you don't actually live in the UK, you seem to think the repeating the project fear ad infinitem it's predictions will come true instantly.

What does his living in the UK have to do with anything?
Economic data are available in real time around the world.
And perhaps you can point out where he said "it's predictions will come true instantly".
Although it's not quite clear what the "it's" refers to in this case

[NigelJK]

think I understand your thought processes (not easy, as they're grounded in idiocy and illogic). You think since I voted for Bremain, that means I thought Bremain would win. Since Bremain didn't win, I'm wrong about everything.

According to your "reasoning", if you'd lost the referendum, you would have instantly agreed that staying in Europe was a great idea after all.

You really are not very bright. Are you related to Purple Gorilla perchance?

Nobody asked you what my thought processes were. I just pointed out your actions.

You seem to be saying that, despite the fact that you don't actually live in the UK, you seem to think the repeating the project fear ad infinitem it's predictions will come true instantly.

Well, so far you've managed to get everything else in this conversation 'wrong' (i.e. you are the loser despite claiming I was).

When I voted it was for an outcome, not an 'idea'. If Bremain had won I'd have had to start acting accordingly, just as I am now for the exit. I didn't take it personally any other time I voted either, I just had a strategy for coping based on my own analysis.

The reason I don't look bright to you is that you are too far from the source.

[NotAllThere]

...
I get it. Your crystal ball, which incidentally failed miserably to predict the outcome, now fails to predict what might happen in your preconceived view of a Britain free EU?

I think I understand your thought processes (not easy, as they're grounded in idiocy and illogic). You think since I voted for Bremain, that means I thought Bremain would win. Since Bremain didn't win, I'm wrong about everything.

According to your "reasoning", if you'd lost the referendum, you would have instantly agreed that staying in Europe was a great idea after all.

You really are not very bright. Are you related to Purple Gorilla perchance?

[CretinWatcher]

I get it. Your crystal ball, which incidentally failed miserably to predict the outcome, now fails to predict what might happen in your preconceived view of a Britain free EU?

My crystal ball said it was too close to call and so I moved a largish 6 figure sum , profit from a BTL, out of sterling.
If I change that sum back to sterling I'm up quite a nice sum - enough to buy a large luxury car, say.

My "crystal ball" or rather, my analysis skills, are now telling me that with the uncertainty about access to the single market, lack of passporting rights for the City, the weak industrial base and the large twin deficits of the UK, that a recession is inevitable
The only issue is how severe it will be.

[NigelJK]

You won the vote.

Phew, glad we got that straight.

Well, some of us think economic chaos and the break up of the Uk aren't good ideas.

If in five years time

But all the indications are (so far)

Do you understand now? (I wonder if you can get the distinction between "understand" and "agree")

I get it. Your crystal ball, which incidentally failed miserably to predict the outcome, now fails to predict what might happen in your preconceived view of a Britain free EU?

[NotAllThere]

You still have not answered the question, what are you going to do when we exit?

Stay in Switzerland, occasionally visit the UK to benefit from cheap shopping and pity the poor people who thought they'd benefit from a Brexit.

Like this chap.

I voted out, so I'm the winner here.

Care to give us your reasons for berating us?

*sigh*. Ok, I'll try again. You won the vote. I didn't vote for Brexit because I thought it would be bad for Britain. You winning the vote doesn't change that opinion. I said a win for Brexit would be disastrous for the UK. If in five years time you're living in a happy, prosperous country, I'll be glad to admit you'd be right. I'd even be really happy to be wrong. But all the indications are (so far) I'm not wrong. It's gonna be a mess for a long time and the UK will come out of it all the poorer.

You won the vote. Not the argument. The reasons why a Brexit is bad have not disappeared miraculously as a result of the referendum.

Since I think you (and other Brexiters) don't understand this fairly basic logic, I can only conclude you're all a bit thick. Hence the berating.

Do you understand now? (I wonder if you can get the distinction between "understand" and "agree")

[CretinWatcher]

Care to give us your reasons for berating us?

Well, some of us think economic chaos and the break up of the Uk aren't good ideas.

[WTFH]

IANAL, but can't find any source documents suggesting that rules changing in April '17 will prevent us leaving if Article 50 is not triggered by then. DYOR.

And if Article 50 is not triggered by the UK government, then we're not going anywhere. So, the big question from some should not be "how can be blame the EU for everything?" But "why will our right wing government refuse to invoke article 50 immediately?"
It's not the EU's fault. It's not Corbyn's fault (Although he is a socialist so is personally responsible for everything wrong with the world), it's not Farage's fault (since he is unelected in the UK).

I'm surprised the people who were so vocal on Brexit are picking on others rather than dealing with the issue that their wishes are being ignored by the elected UK parliament.

Shame.

[WTFH]

Have I blocked rl4, or is he unable to respond politely to my comments. He gave me zero seconds, I've given him 16 hours.

[NigelJK]

Everyone living in the UK will lose. You will lose. I won't lose. I don't live in the UK. Is that clear enough for you, loser?

OK for the hard of thinking. You still have not answered the question, what are you going to do when we exit?

Think that says it all really don't you?

Is that clear enough for you, loser?

I'm guessing that's aimed at me. I voted out, so I'm the winner here.

BTW I've voted at every opportunity to vote in the last 30+ years and only once before last week has the outcome been what I voted for. I had to put up with that twunt Blair for 12 years, and never once did I moan about the outcome.

Care to give us your reasons for berating us?