Originally posted by sreed
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Reply to: State of the Market
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Previously on "State of the Market"
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Originally posted by sreed View Post
Hang on. So Sunak called the election at short notice, did everything to lose it, all with the aim of winning Starmer a supermajority so that Starmer could then immediately enact 'extremely unpopular' decisions that both Sunak and Starmer want?!
Tory are lame duck at the moment, they have lost quite a few seats in by-elections and just had disastrous local elections. If there is need to get some controversial policy through parliament, there must be enough disciplined minions who will vote for it - something that Labour seemingly will have after the 4th. This time Labour even not trying to pretend that their win will bring any significant changes to policies - it is literally just swap of colours on banners.
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Originally posted by dsc View Post
That's between 46-50k a year salary as perm so they might simply be matching some perm budget, but they want to keep it a temp placement so via umbrella.
I asked the consultant how they'd get someone decent for this rate and he said that they had plenty of interest because apparently there's lots of people who want to get a foot in at the NHS!
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Originally posted by Sub View Post
That is rather over-optimistic view. By itself sudden UK and French elections is quite bad sign as there is no obvious explanation, why for example Sunak would call an early election he most definitely will lose. Why not enjoy the power for 6 more months? One of possible explanations is consolidation of power by elites before extremely un-popular decisions that incoming governments will make, so there is no questioning of authority.
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Originally posted by oliverson View Post
I don't really buy into all this theory stuff if I'm honest. Common sense suggests that when both elections are done and rates start getting cut, the market will improve. Better still if some peace deal gets struck. Those on the bench, hold on there and keep the faith.
Radical raise of taxes? Return of conscription? Another mega-bailout for the banking? Starting proxy war with China over Taiwan?
Or maybe that is just coincidence and we all will be OK in 12 months or so.
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Originally posted by Fraidycat View PostA stock market correction/crash is just too horrible to think about.
There is a bubble in some large AI stocks in the USA, led my Nvidia, we jut have to pray that bubble continues on for several more years. If the bubble pops it could take down the rest of the market with it and ruin the recovery we are expecting next year.
We are currently in the deepest and longest interest rate inversion since.... 1929.
Do bubbles ever not pop, especially big ones?
Timing and size of the crash are really hard to predict, as always, but it is certainly my assumption now that it is coming. I am cashing in investments and placing that cash in safe interest bearing accounts - hell even the interest rates are quite good, you can get around 5%! I could be totally wrong and miss out on some spectacular melt up, but even timing that is just as unpredictable as a crash, so I am going the cautious route.
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Originally posted by northernladuk View PostChrist. Just had an email for a Service Manager for DWP in Blackpool. 2-3 days on site. Tons of qualifications and experience required..... 260-285 a day inside...
That's the worst rate I think I've ever seen for work in my area. I think I'll pass thank you.
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A stock market correction/crash is just too horrible to think about.
There is a bubble in some large AI stocks in the USA, led my Nvidia, we jut have to pray that bubble continues on for several more years. If the bubble pops it could take down the rest of the market with it and ruin the recovery we are expecting next year.Last edited by Fraidycat; 27 June 2024, 16:40.
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Originally posted by oliverson View PostI don't really buy into all this theory stuff if I'm honest. Common sense suggests that when both elections are done and rates start getting cut, the market will improve. Better still if some peace deal gets struck. Those on the bench, hold on there and keep the faith.
* Year on year unemployment rate increasing by over 10%. Currently over 10% in the USA.
Election in the UK matters about as much as our country matters any more. What the US economy is doing matters to us a lot more.
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Originally posted by BigDataPro View Post
Everything + Personal Statement. I have a feeling that they deliberately ask too many things, so they have a reason to support candidate rejection and makes it easier to give away the role to Public Sector contracting companies like BJSS, Kainos etc.
The funny thing is that the same contractors who were rejected by them earlier gets the role at a better rate. Public sector Efficiency is Awesome!
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Originally posted by northernladuk View PostChrist. Just had an email for a Service Manager for DWP in Blackpool. 2-3 days on site. Tons of qualifications and experience required..... 260-285 a day inside...
That's the worst rate I think I've ever seen for work in my area. I think I'll pass thank you.
The funny thing is that the same contractors who were rejected by them earlier gets the role at a better rate. Public sector Efficiency is Awesome!
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Christ. Just had an email for a Service Manager for DWP in Blackpool. 2-3 days on site. Tons of qualifications and experience required..... 260-285 a day inside...
That's the worst rate I think I've ever seen for work in my area. I think I'll pass thank you.
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Originally posted by willendure View PostThanks for posting these graphs and stats. It looks like the current slump started around 18 months ago. The 2001 slump lasted 30 months or so, so we know that is very possible. I think what worries me is that the situation globally is still deteriorating - as you say, the 4 interest rate cuts never materialized. So my reading of this is that the current slump is still on a downward trajectory and the turnaround some way off.
Here are just some of the indications that I am aware of that suggest a large deflationary event is on its way:
* Strong correlation between the VIX (volatility index) and interest rates delayed 18 months. Suggests high likelyhood of coming volatility over the next 6 months.
* Current rising CDO defaults on commercial real estate. The worst is still to come and we can expect bank failures.
* The "Hindenberg Omen" technical indicator is giving a signal right now - stock market rising but more companies making new 52-week lows than making 52-week highs. That is, the market is getting very concentrated into just a few stocks. NVidia!
* The Shiller P/E ratio made a new high since the last one in 1999, meaning stocks are now more overpriced than they were then.
* US house sales dropped to a low at the start of this year. Strong indicator of a coming recession.
None of these are perfect on their own, but taken together - and there are more - are a mounting collection of evidence that the US economy is coming under strain and will reach a breaking point.
Oil is currently relatively low. If it were to rise, that might be the trigger.
On the plus side, the property market in my neck of the woods (Yorkshire) has just caught fire. On my return from the supermarket today, a journey of just over 1 mile, on the main road alone, 12 For Sale signs and 1 To Let. Eight of those properties have sold and the rental has been let. Three more my estate all sold. Some folk out there are doing well, have the confidence to move. Also lots of people staying and improving/extending what they've got. Further afield in Southern Spain where I have property, prices have shot up, 12.5% in the last year (after flatlining for a decade since the financial crash).
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The good news is, if you are out of work right now, its not because you are a numpty - the market really is bad!
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Thanks for posting these graphs and stats. It looks like the current slump started around 18 months ago. The 2001 slump lasted 30 months or so, so we know that is very possible. I think what worries me is that the situation globally is still deteriorating - as you say, the 4 interest rate cuts never materialized. So my reading of this is that the current slump is still on a downward trajectory and the turnaround some way off.
Here are just some of the indications that I am aware of that suggest a large deflationary event is on its way:
* Strong correlation between the VIX (volatility index) and interest rates delayed 18 months. Suggests high likelyhood of coming volatility over the next 6 months.
* Current rising CDO defaults on commercial real estate. The worst is still to come and we can expect bank failures.
* The "Hindenberg Omen" technical indicator is giving a signal right now - stock market rising but more companies making new 52-week lows than making 52-week highs. That is, the market is getting very concentrated into just a few stocks. NVidia!
* The Shiller P/E ratio made a new high since the last one in 1999, meaning stocks are now more overpriced than they were then.
* US house sales dropped to a low at the start of this year. Strong indicator of a coming recession.
None of these are perfect on their own, but taken together - and there are more - are a mounting collection of evidence that the US economy is coming under strain and will reach a breaking point.
Oil is currently relatively low. If it were to rise, that might be the trigger.Last edited by willendure; 27 June 2024, 09:35.
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