Reply to: State of the Market

[Fraidycat]

The graph starts in May 2020, not "the start of 2020", and you previously claimed it showed "covid lows", now you are saying that the graph is showing "before covid hit". It doesn't show (in any measured sense) what the "pre-covid levels were" that you referred to.

The graph says on the Y Axis that it starts from Feb 1st 2020 and is using that as the basis for the value 100.

[edison]

I guess, the idea is, like a lot of the public sector, the NHS is recession proof and doesn't do IT layoffs when there are slumps in the private sector.

I don't think that's true for all the public and not for profit sectors. Local government is different as a significant proportion of their funding comes from central government but this has fallen substantially in real terms. One council I've worked with on and off for 20 years has gone through about six restructurings and downsizing of the IT function. It's about 2/3 the size is was pre-austerity era.

Central government probably varies by department. Some have been ringfenced from cuts over the years leaving others to bear a disproportionate amount of cuts.

[sreed]

Chart from US federal website, shows the number of Developer job postings is almost at covid lows, similar, maybe even worse to what we are seeing in the UK.

Also shows there was massive over hiring post covid compared to the hiring levels pre covid. Which is why subsequent layoffs were so large at the US tech companies and that hit us here in the UK as well. Last year the UK market was full of with people from the likes of Facebook and Google who had been laid off.

At least as per ONS seasonally adjusted vacancies data, We are most definitely not at Covid lows. Here’s a chart I pulled from 2016-2024 on all the sectors that could be IT/IT-related and the backbone (finance and insurance). The blue line being ‘Information & Communication’ which is the closest I could get to IT.

You can argue about the methodology, how they collect data, what they’re looking at etc, but according to that vacancy levels in I&C are no worse than they were at different times in 2016, 2017, 2019, and definitely well off the Covid lows in mid 2020.

There are definitely a LOT more highly-incentivised people competing for IT jobs in 2024 compared to the pre-Covid era but that’s a different story.

[WTFH]

It shows job US opening for developers in 2021 were more than double the level at the start of 2020, before Covid hit..

The graph starts in May 2020, not "the start of 2020", and you previously claimed it showed "covid lows", now you are saying that the graph is showing "before covid hit". It doesn't show (in any measured sense) what the "pre-covid levels were" that you referred to.

It may as well be a chart showing business confidence in US presidents, Biden gets voted in, business confidence improves, but now as it looks less likely that 45 will serve jail time and that many people are blinded by his word salads, so he might get another presidency, then business confidence is crumbling.

[Ketto]

I guess, the idea is, like a lot of the public sector, the NHS is recession proof and doesn't do IT layoffs when there are slumps in the private sector.

I found it a depressing sector to work in (not as bad as local authorities, but up there). Often very worthy and motivating work, but very difficult to get things done with so much negativity and endless silly projects doomed to fail from the start. Managers failing time and time again over the years and getting repeated promotions. Lost count of the number of paperless initiatives i’ve seen come and go over the years. Did 12 years 2004-2016 before ditching it for private sector. Dipped my toe back in during the start of covid panic in 2020, I lasted 5 months.

[Fraidycat]

That chart has a Farage-esque level of fable about it.
It starts in 2020, but your comments talk about “pre Covid levels”

Do you think we are all as gullible as you? It’s like you’ve taken the worst of Scooter and combined it with the far-right to make false assertions.

Not sure what you point is, the Chart is from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) website.

It shows job US opening for developers in 2021 were more than double the level at the start of 2020, before Covid hit.

This was a massive hiring bubble in the US Tech sector.

The bubble popped in mid 2022, and US tech giants then did big layoffs because they over hired so much in 2021, the UK was also caught in that cross fire last year.

A client told me about the high number of CVs they were getting from ex Facebook and Google employees here in the UK.

[WTFH]

Chart from US federal website, shows the number of Developer job postings is almost at covid lows, similar, maybe even worse to what we are seeing in the UK.

Also shows there was massive over hiring post covid compared to the hiring levels pre covid. Which is why subsequent layoffs were so large at the US tech companies and that hit us here in the UK as well. Last year the UK market was full of with people from the likes of Facebook and Google who had been laid off.

That chart has a Farage-esque level of fable about it.
It starts in 2020, but your comments talk about “pre Covid levels”

Do you think we are all as gullible as you? It’s like you’ve taken the worst of Scooter and combined it with the far-right to make false assertions.

[Fraidycat]

Chart from US federal website, shows the number of Developer job postings is almost at covid lows, similar, maybe even worse to what we are seeing in the UK.

Also shows there was massive over hiring post covid compared to the hiring levels pre covid. Which is why subsequent layoffs were so large at the US tech companies and that hit us here in the UK as well. Last year the UK market was full of with people from the likes of Facebook and Google who had been laid off.

[Fraidycat]

Started out in the NHS and spent a long time trying to get my feet out of it!

I guess, the idea is, like a lot of the public sector, the NHS is recession proof and doesn't do IT layoffs when there are slumps in the private sector.

[Ketto]

I asked the consultant how they'd get someone decent for this rate and he said that they had plenty of interest because apparently there's lots of people who want to get a foot in at the NHS!

Started out in the NHS and spent a long time trying to get my feet out of it!

[Sub]

Hang on. So Sunak called the election at short notice, did everything to lose it, all with the aim of winning Starmer a supermajority so that Starmer could then immediately enact 'extremely unpopular' decisions that both Sunak and Starmer want?!

Tory are lame duck at the moment, they have lost quite a few seats in by-elections and just had disastrous local elections. If there is need to get some controversial policy through parliament, there must be enough disciplined minions who will vote for it - something that Labour seemingly will have after the 4th. This time Labour even not trying to pretend that their win will bring any significant changes to policies - it is literally just swap of colours on banners.

[sreed]

That's between 46-50k a year salary as perm so they might simply be matching some perm budget, but they want to keep it a temp placement so via umbrella.

This is the likely explanation. Last time I was in the market (last summer) I'd applied for an NHS PM inside contract on PSR expecting it to pay in the 500-600pd range which was the going rate for most generalist PS PM roles in 2022-23. The consultant gave me a call to say that the rate was ~250pd remote and whether I'd still be interested. When I looked on the NHS website for the same kind of perm role it was an exact equivalent of the perm salary, they didn't even bother to adjust for the employer's NI that an inside contractor would be on the hook for!

I asked the consultant how they'd get someone decent for this rate and he said that they had plenty of interest because apparently there's lots of people who want to get a foot in at the NHS!

[sreed]

That is rather over-optimistic view. By itself sudden UK and French elections is quite bad sign as there is no obvious explanation, why for example Sunak would call an early election he most definitely will lose. Why not enjoy the power for 6 more months? One of possible explanations is consolidation of power by elites before extremely un-popular decisions that incoming governments will make, so there is no questioning of authority.

Hang on. So Sunak called the election at short notice, did everything to lose it, all with the aim of winning Starmer a supermajority so that Starmer could then immediately enact 'extremely unpopular' decisions that both Sunak and Starmer want?!

[Sub]

I don't really buy into all this theory stuff if I'm honest. Common sense suggests that when both elections are done and rates start getting cut, the market will improve. Better still if some peace deal gets struck. Those on the bench, hold on there and keep the faith.

That is rather over-optimistic view. By itself sudden UK and French elections is quite bad sign as there is no obvious explanation, why for example Sunak would call an early election he most definitely will lose. Why not enjoy the power for 6 more months? One of possible explanations is consolidation of power by elites before extremely un-popular decisions that incoming governments will make, so there is no questioning of authority.

Radical raise of taxes? Return of conscription? Another mega-bailout for the banking? Starting proxy war with China over Taiwan?

Or maybe that is just coincidence and we all will be OK in 12 months or so.

[willendure]

A stock market correction/crash is just too horrible to think about.

There is a bubble in some large AI stocks in the USA, led my Nvidia, we jut have to pray that bubble continues on for several more years. If the bubble pops it could take down the rest of the market with it and ruin the recovery we are expecting next year.

Ask yourself this question, with economic indicators heading in the wrong direction, do you think it is likely that there will be a smooth recovery when interest rates are cut (A)? Or does it seem more likely there will be some kind of chaotic period required to clear out the damage before that can happen (B)? What usually happens in these situations A or B?

We are currently in the deepest and longest interest rate inversion since.... 1929.

Do bubbles ever not pop, especially big ones?

Timing and size of the crash are really hard to predict, as always, but it is certainly my assumption now that it is coming. I am cashing in investments and placing that cash in safe interest bearing accounts - hell even the interest rates are quite good, you can get around 5%! I could be totally wrong and miss out on some spectacular melt up, but even timing that is just as unpredictable as a crash, so I am going the cautious route.