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Previously on "State of the Market"

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  • hungry_hog
    replied
    The rates are actually good, even though market is slow, which I know seems anomalous.
    I'm at an FS client and there are plenty of people on 1000+ Umbrella rate (not me I hasten to add). The posh coffee shops (coffee 4 to 15 quid!) are doing a roaring trade.

    it depends hugely on previous experience specific to that client, if you have it they pay top dollar. Worth more than 20 years at the fabled "top tier" IBs

    Leave a comment:


  • Fraidycat
    replied
    Originally posted by SussexSeagull View Post
    Also the days of floors full of contractors delivering projects seems to have passed. They seem to be well and truly offshored.
    My guess is the demand for contractors will return at some point. But inflation adjusted rates will not return to 2021 levels.

    When the surge in demand returns is anyones guess.. A year ago i was confident the full recovery will be in 2025. Now i'm not as sure..
    Last edited by Fraidycat; 12 April 2024, 10:54.

    Leave a comment:


  • BlueSharp
    replied
    6 weeks to the end of the contract for me, but I have a sizable holiday in July and a family property to renovate over the summer and plan to get some AI certs so won't be looking until the end of August.

    I'm hoping things have picked up by September! From conversations with agents the market is awful still so may have no option but to plough on with plan B until the cash runs out (or it becomes a real business) then back to perm. I think there are a lot of projects on hold at the moment waiting for the next election and also for interest rates to start dropping.

    Speaking to a commercial banker friend no one is borrowing cash at the moment to expand as it's too expensive and there are a lot of over-leveraged companies out there caught paying down debt due to the high rates. There seems to be more appetite for getting SaaS solutions in and integrated than building in-house/offshore development at the moment. A lot of macro factors are at play.



    Last edited by BlueSharp; 12 April 2024, 10:55.

    Leave a comment:


  • edison
    replied
    Originally posted by barely_pointless View Post
    funny and a little arrogant , recruiter asked my why I was out of work from Nov to Jan - 3 months, I said ill and market was pretty quite, I then asked him how many placements he did in the same period...........
    The truth.

    Only one recruiter I've spoken to out of maybe 25-30 in the last 5-6 months has said that business is really good. Many of these are big players in the contract and interim market.

    Leave a comment:


  • barely_pointless
    replied
    funny and a little arrogant , recruiter asked my why I was out of work from Nov to Jan - 3 months, I said ill and market was pretty quite, I then asked him how many placements he did in the same period...........

    Leave a comment:


  • sreed
    replied
    Originally posted by SussexSeagull View Post
    I think we are in the process of a fairly major adjustment in the IT contracting industry. Once the City decided that inside IR35 was the way to go then the argument for remaining a contractor was weakened, although there is seemingly still enough contractors willing to do it.

    Also the days of floors full of contractors delivering projects seems to have passed. They seem to be well and truly offshored.

    This is an observation based on who I have worked with over recent years and not a political or social one, but we have had a lot of IT talent come in from India. I suspect the change in immigration rules will reduce that but they are now able to stay permanently and are competing with the rest of us.

    That all said the work I have got post Covid reminds me of what I got 15 years ago where you went into a small or medium setup either on your own or in a small group and used your expertise to help them over a few months before moving on.
    I probably don’t have as much contracting experience as you, given that I’ve never been pure IT and moved from operations permie to consulting outside to now a generalist PM contractor (mostly inside post covid) over a 20 year period, but there is definitely a trend over the time I have been in the market that matches what you’ve said.

    I don’t believe that there will be a significant let up in experienced IT people moving here from India, there continue to be too many low effort visa routes and an inexhaustible (compared to the UK job market) high volume of highly incentivised people looking to permanently immigrate.

    IR35 and a move towards inside roles is here to stay. To me personally, it’s all a means to an end and since I’ve started sal sacrificing large proportions and the allowance has gone up to 60k, I’m increasingly fine with inside contracts as monetarily it works out about even compared to if I earned a similar day rate on an outside contract. Obviously that wouldn’t be the case for every single contractor out there but it will for a large number of one man bands and especially those who started contracting fairly recently so aren’t comparing it to the era that was.

    Leave a comment:


  • edison
    replied
    I've seen and heard some conflicting things in the last two weeks. Multiple recruiter sources have told me that companies may have plans but there isn't the same appetite any more for kicking off transformation programmes or large projects. M&A and PE activity is down and there's no big business driver to start kicking off major change for many companies.

    On the plus side, I have seen quite a lot of new contract and perm PMO roles advertised which is normally a sign that better things are on the way. I just think programmes and projects will be on a smaller scale than before and there will be fewer opportunities overall for some time to come.

    Leave a comment:


  • SussexSeagull
    replied
    I think we are in the process of a fairly major adjustment in the IT contracting industry. Once the City decided that inside IR35 was the way to go then the argument for remaining a contractor was weakened, although there is seemingly still enough contractors willing to do it.

    Also the days of floors full of contractors delivering projects seems to have passed. They seem to be well and truly offshored.

    This is an observation based on who I have worked with over recent years and not a political or social one, but we have had a lot of IT talent come in from India. I suspect the change in immigration rules will reduce that but they are now able to stay permanently and are competing with the rest of us.

    That all said the work I have got post Covid reminds me of what I got 15 years ago where you went into a small or medium setup either on your own or in a small group and used your expertise to help them over a few months before moving on.

    Leave a comment:


  • northernladuk
    replied
    Originally posted by tsmith View Post
    Lady reckons IR35 changes means an extra 90,000 people now competing for perm jobs

    https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nadin...member_desktop
    Must admit I'm not keen on that article. Dunno why Amazon not paying tax is relevant or the argument IR35 affects the perms as she's put it but her end message seems welcome.

    Leave a comment:


  • tsmith
    replied
    Lady reckons IR35 changes means an extra 90,000 people now competing for perm jobs

    https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nadin...member_desktop

    Leave a comment:


  • Fraidycat
    replied
    I would guess Minimum wage rises effecting other job salaries is going be like some sort of inverse square law.

    Nearby rates are going to effected most, but the effect is going to diminish the further away you get from £11.50 an hour.

    Leave a comment:


  • sreed
    replied
    Originally posted by dsc View Post

    Every article I read about rising min wage said that it will cause overall wages to grow as well as suddenly people on lower wages realise they earn minimum wage and so want a raise. Min wage only kicked in beginning of April, so surely it's too quick to be saying that it doesn't affect overall wage growth?
    I have no idea about all this works. The way I see it, non-statutorily-required wage growth can only happen if there’s the money to fund it so if companies aren’t doing well, or aren’t investing, I don’t know where the money will come from for salary hikes. Doesn’t apply in the same way to the public sector but even they don’t have the money and in any case that happens in a slow manner as it involves unions, government, etc.

    Leave a comment:


  • dsc
    replied
    Originally posted by sreed View Post

    [...]rapidly slowing wage growth outside of the minimum wage increase (self inflicted inflation).[...]
    Every article I read about rising min wage said that it will cause overall wages to grow as well as suddenly people on lower wages realise they earn minimum wage and so want a raise. Min wage only kicked in beginning of April, so surely it's too quick to be saying that it doesn't affect overall wage growth?

    Leave a comment:


  • sreed
    replied
    Just to be clear, as I mentioned in my post, the comment you’ve quoted (Megan is wrong) isn’t mine, it’s a comment under the FT article

    The Swiss central bank cut rates by 0.25% (from 1.75% to 1.5%) a few weeks ago, so you never know!
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...ng%20inflation.

    Originally posted by Fraidycat View Post
    Its not just Megan, the City now expects just 2 cuts totalling just 0.5% this year for the UK, from the FT:

    Leave a comment:


  • Fraidycat
    replied
    Originally posted by sreed View Post


    It should be clear by now that I think Megan is completely and utterly wrong, borderline crazy. The U.K. is not the US, for sure. We have lower growth, lower consumption, lower disposable income thanks to structurally higher energy prices, no housing bubble, no stock market bubble,.
    Its not just Megan, the City now expects just 2 cuts totalling just 0.5% this year for the UK, from the FT:

    "City Traders are no longer fully pricing in the first UK interest rate cut in August and now expect borrowing costs to begin to fall in either that month or September. The two cuts they now expect for this year contrast with the more than six cuts markets anticipated in January. On Thursday the interest rate swaps market fully priced in a cumulative cut by year end of around 0.5 percentage points. Market expectations have shifted in similar fashion in the US and the eurozone

    UK consumer price inflation fell to 3.4 per cent in February, its lowest level since 2021, and big declines in household energy bills will drag it down further in the near term. But the BoE’s latest forecasts suggest this drop will be temporary, with domestic price pressures pushing headline CPI back above the central bank’s 2 per cent target for much of the next two to three years"


    Plus crude oil is currently $90 and will go over $100 if the tulipe hits the fan in the middle east.

    Six rate cuts would have kick started the contract market for sure this year, as clients would have green lit projects that are currently on hold.
    Last edited by Fraidycat; 11 April 2024, 11:50.

    Leave a comment:

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