Reply to: State of the Market

[Fraidycat]

That site would suggest the market in general for most skills is down almost 60% compared to 2 years ago, when looked at over the last six months.

This month on its own, the market looks to be in even worse shape, probably down 80% on two years ago. While job applicants for each role could be 10x to 100x what they used to be.

[Fraidycat]

Have you got a graphic which represents more up to date data, this one shows up to 2010 please?

No chart, but this is data from ITJobswatch.co.uk, they cover all skills but these are the ones you are probably interested in:

	6months to June 2022	6months to June 2023	6months to June 2024
Contract jobs citing Finance	18,065	11,912	8,175
Contract jobs requiring a Developer	16,044	8,970	6,253
Contract jobs citing C#	5,216	2,884	2,051
Contract jobs citing Java	8965	4651	2816

https://www.itjobswatch.co.uk/contracts/uk/csharp.do

[SchumiStars]

Some historical data from the Jobstats archive, chart below.

Shows the 2001 slump lasted from mid 2001 to the end of 2003. That was 30 months.

The 2008 slump looks like it lasted around 15 months, the cut to almost zero interest rates saving the day.

With reports that this current slump started in mid 2022, would mean we are 24 months into this one

Have you got a graphic which represents more up to date data, this one shows up to 2010 please?

[SussexSeagull]

In pure terms of seeing opportunities appear on Jobserve or LinkedIn this is a bad as I have seen it in my 16 years in contracting. That said in my last few goes at getting a new contract it came through my network or being approached through LinkedIn so maybe it isn't the end of the world.

[edison]

Some historical data from the Jobstats archive, chart below.

Shows the 2001 slump lasted from mid 2001 to the end of 2003. That was 30 months.

The 2008 slump looks like it lasted around 15 months, the cut to almost zero interest rates saving the day.

With reports that this current slump started in mid 2022, would mean we are 24 months into this one

If the current slump eventually exceeds the 30 months from 2001-03, do we start to assume that the underlying cause might be driven more by structural 'IT market' changes rather than the overall business cycle?

Or is it the case that effects of Brexit/Covid will still take more time to work their way through the system?

[Fraidycat]

Some historical data from the Jobstats archive, chart below.

Shows the 2001 slump lasted from mid 2001 to the end of 2003. That was 30 months.

The 2008 slump looks like it lasted around 15 months, the cut to almost zero interest rates saving the day.

With reports that this current slump started in mid 2022, would mean we are 24 months into this one

[sreed]

The issue is a lot here have tried different venues and came out with a big fat zero. Everyone in their right might is looking at every possible angle to land anything and also coming up with nothing. It's not about accepting a low ball rate, it's about having any rate to consider in the first place.

Absolutely, that might well be the case for some, and people’s frame of reference might be hugely different.

But at least as far as I can tell (both from my recent experience and the hiring that I can see going on at the client that I work in, previous clients/employers, etc.) the job market in general is not apocalyptically bad to the extent that a large percentage of skilled contractors would have to fall back on Uber after 3 months of looking for something between their ideal role and the other extreme of unskilled/low-skilled jobs that anyone fresh off the boat could do.

[Peoplesoft bloke]

So buckle in kittens!

Bluerrrrrughh

[SchumiStars]

Just applied to the local college to teach CS. Also applied for a PGCE, perhaps a career change?!

Perhaps the market will never recover? IR35 has been such a horrible pain for the last 5 yrs that it's seems such a mountain to climb to get back to pre-covid rates.

2019 I was in for an investment bank, outside rate on a long term contract. COVID, IR35, Brexit all hit at once and my gosh is was an utter tulip show. I had also just taken on a large mortgage.

In all honesty it would have been easier to have just shot myself in the head and be done with it.

[Unix]

The issue is a lot here have tried different venues and came out with a big fat zero. Everyone in their right might is looking at every possible angle to land anything and also coming up with nothing. It's not about accepting a low ball rate, it's about having any rate to consider in the first place.

It won't change until after UK and US elections are done and dusted and a few rate cuts. I've been lucky to have been in contract through all this, but could be on bench towards end of the year, have built a very large warchest though but hate the thought of dipping into it

[dsc]

My take on this is a bit different. For a skilled contractor, there are a LOT more avenues you can explore between not getting the contract you’re most suited for and any ‘unskilled’ or ‘low-skilled’ job.

The specifics will of course differ from individual to individual but to take my own example, as a mid-career generalist PM contractor with experience primarily in FS - if I couldn’t find the kind of contracts I’m best suited to (and pay what I’d like) then I’d go down all of the below routes (not necessarily in that order) before looking at Uber or a supermarket worker job.

- contracts outside FS
- PAYE FTCs
- perm jobs
- FTCs and perm jobs outside FS
- perm and FTC jobs in the civil service and charity sectors (from experience their recruitment processes are very good for square pegs looking for a round hole and ignoring things like being “overqualified”, “too old”, “wrong kind of experience” which private sector recruiters often use to set aside CVs). Applying for CS and non-profit sector jobs is an absolute pain in the arse as they all require some form of cover letter addressing person specifications in a STAR format etc. but it also eliminates a lot of the competition.

To state the obvious, none of the above is likely to pay what the “best” contract for me might but if push comes to shove I’ll try out everything.

At least on the basis of my recent experience and expectations, the job market that’s relevant to me is doing alright.

The issue is a lot here have tried different venues and came out with a big fat zero. Everyone in their right might is looking at every possible angle to land anything and also coming up with nothing. It's not about accepting a low ball rate, it's about having any rate to consider in the first place.

[sreed]

So anyone out for more than three months with a small war chest has to decide when they try 'out of industry', eg a delivery job etc.. thats a very hard pill to swallow and most wont do it except as a very last resort, when things get desperate..

My take on this is a bit different. For a skilled contractor, there are a LOT more avenues you can explore between not getting the contract you’re most suited for and any ‘unskilled’ or ‘low-skilled’ job.

The specifics will of course differ from individual to individual but to take my own example, as a mid-career generalist PM contractor with experience primarily in FS - if I couldn’t find the kind of contracts I’m best suited to (and pay what I’d like) then I’d go down all of the below routes (not necessarily in that order) before looking at Uber or a supermarket worker job.

- contracts outside FS
- PAYE FTCs
- perm jobs
- FTCs and perm jobs outside FS
- perm and FTC jobs in the civil service and charity sectors (from experience their recruitment processes are very good for square pegs looking for a round hole and ignoring things like being “overqualified”, “too old”, “wrong kind of experience” which private sector recruiters often use to set aside CVs). Applying for CS and non-profit sector jobs is an absolute pain in the arse as they all require some form of cover letter addressing person specifications in a STAR format etc. but it also eliminates a lot of the competition.

To state the obvious, none of the above is likely to pay what the “best” contract for me might but if push comes to shove I’ll try out everything.

At least on the basis of my recent experience and expectations, the job market that’s relevant to me is doing alright.

[Dark Black]

Thought I'd look in and see how things were... The market sound horrific

Went perm a couple of years back after struggling to find much post-pandemic. Hating every second of course, been keeping myself sane with the prospect of returning to contracting at some point. Looking less and less likely now.

Really feel for you guys out there with long bench times. Worryingly, there is a real lull in work where I am currently, no new revenue-earning projects since last year and a lot of dev staff on internal projects to keep them "ticking over". Can't see that being sustainable for too long without the inevitable result...

Tough times.

[SchumiStars]

******* tulip market. I ******* hate this bollocks.

FFS.

[Fraidycat]

For those holding their breath for an interest rate cut...

I don't think anyone is holding their breath.

Just not many perm jobs around either.

So anyone out for more than three months with a small war chest has to decide when they try 'out of industry', eg a delivery job etc.. thats a very hard pill to swallow and most wont do it except as a very last resort, when things get desperate..