Reply to: EU demands more money

[Bean]

See if you can work out how you have muddled things up around statistical significance and causation.

Ah I see what you were angling towards, pedanticism. (around how 'most people' would use causation vs a statistician)

Yes, you are technically correct (but the point is moot by the end of this post) with regards to causation and StatSig, but I doubt, for example, many people would like a wording change to 'smoking causes cancer' on cigarette packets...due to this same technicality....
"Many other reasons were suggested for the link between lung cancer and smoking, including sleep deprivation or alcoholism. In layman’s terms, it’s now known that smoking causes lung cancer. But in scientific (or statistical) terms, you can’t really say “cause” as that would mean every single person who smoked even just one cigarette would get lung cancer. As statisticians, we say that there is a very strong correlation between smoking and lung cancer."


However, plug in the study figures to the link below and you will arrive at a confidence interval of 4.6-5.4% - NOT really statistically significant is it.....so not even a correlation has been found
https://select-statistics.co.uk/calc...on-proportion/


But you don't really need to use the calculator to work that out, when the sample (11205) is so low (0.03%) compared to the target group (34000000)


So to sum up;
1. Low sample size compared to population size
2. Low confidence interval
3. No correlation can be derived due to 1 & 2
4. Extremely unlikely (but not impossible) to be causation without any correlation
5. Study is yet to be formally presented (and therefore not yet peer-reviewed)


But thanks for linking it anyway, made me chuckle with all those 'remainer' symptoms

[BlasterBates]

https://www.farminguk.com/News/Cornw...ds-_47882.html

Should be plenty of Labour available after they move the 4 trillion Euro Derivatives clearing market to the EU.

A bit of fresh air will do these pasty faced financial services workers a lot of good.

[WTFH]

no we just can't believe you all fell for Project Fear.

Us Brexiters are wondering when everyone is going home because there aren't any jobs. Or when we need to take our wheelbarrow down the bakers due to inflation.

Its all just you wait, you will be sorry when your dad gets home/ you finally leave/ when the sky falls in.....

https://www.farminguk.com/News/Cornw...ds-_47882.html

[Bean]

I come from a working class area in the midlands. On facebook I am still connected to a lot of people from that area. Almost to a man (and woman) they were sharing these and many more headlines during the whole of the campaign. I would consider them pretty representative of the blue collar, working class, none SE in our society. They were all influenced by these headlines and to a man (and woman) voted out.

FWIW I was so disgusted by a lot of what I saw on read on their FB pages that after 40+ years of knowing these people I had to defriend them. Not because they voted out, but the racist and xenophobic posts.

So yes I do have evidence and yes I do believe these headlines influenced voting.

Next.......

By all means, I would unfriend racist 'friends' on facebook too - but I didn't see anything like that.


Ok, let's see how we can show you that what you experienced was anecdotal evidence:

How many facebook friends do you have? - This will be 'A'
From this number, how many were leavers? - This will be 'B'
From this number, how many posted those headlines? - This will be 'C'

Now do the following calcs and tell us the % outcomes for 'D', 'E' & 'F':

(A / 17000000) * 100 = 'D'
(B / 17000000) * 100 = 'E'
(C / 17000000) * 100 = 'F'

[Bean]

See if you can work out how you have muddled things up around statistical significance and causation.

I don't believe I have. In fact, its worse.


Low sample size (of 11205), relating to a target group of 34000000 referendum voters, actually means the sample was 0.03% representative.


I said this was therefore a statistically insignificant study and therefore YOU shouldn't ascribe causation from any correlation the study has shown.
(and the fact it's not even formalised yet)


Now - what did I do wrong?
(and you must show your working, rather than saying 'let's see if you can see XYZ')

[vetran]

What like Leavers do with Remainers

no we just can't believe you all fell for Project Fear.

Us Brexiters are wondering when everyone is going home because there aren't any jobs. Or when we need to take our wheelbarrow down the bakers due to inflation.

Its all just you wait, you will be sorry when your dad gets home/ you finally leave/ when the sky falls in.....

[Whorty]

Aaaaaand there we are right on cue.

At least you've toned down the pomposity of 'all' to merely the contempt of 'many of' those 17 million.

Tell me, when were those 17 million people interviewed about the reasons behind their votes? (the link from NlyUk was 11205/17000000 and we assume half of those were remainers)

Do you have any evidence they not only 'believed headlines such as these', but also that it was the only factor in voting for them?

Thought not.

Rant away, but don't dress up your beliefs as facts and then try to stereotype/generalise based on those same beliefs.

I come from a working class area in the midlands. On facebook I am still connected to a lot of people from that area. Almost to a man (and woman) they were sharing these and many more headlines during the whole of the campaign. I would consider them pretty representative of the blue collar, working class, none SE in our society. They were all influenced by these headlines and to a man (and woman) voted out.

FWIW I was so disgusted by a lot of what I saw on read on their FB pages that after 40+ years of knowing these people I had to defriend them. Not because they voted out, but the racist and xenophobic posts.

So yes I do have evidence and yes I do believe these headlines influenced voting.

Next.......

[northernladyuk]

A correlation in the results of a web-based survey etc, that was 0.06591% (11205) of the 17 million - careful you don't try and ascribe causation, given the statistically insignificant low sample size (in proportion to the target group)!

That being said, I did laugh at this gem on that website you linked;


Neuroticism- from wiki:

Yep, that's pretty much remainers alright


Then, for a laugh, I carried on reading and found;

So there we have it - according to this currently informal study, both sides are susceptible to specifically ideological motivated reasoning, framing, etc.


Sooooo, not yet peer-reviewed?


Side-question: Shouldn't you/we be pitying thick people for their (expected) poor choices, instead of laughing/sneering/cheering at the potential hurt and pain they've caused themselves?
(I know, I know, that would mean having compassion and empathy - but thought I'd ask anyway)

See if you can work out how you have muddled things up around statistical significance and causation.

[BrilloPad]

Glad you agree your posts about leavers believing this or that are just your own brainfarts, with no credible evidence behind them

So remainers are no better than leavers?

On CUK, all are idiots.

[Bean]

What like Leavers do with Remainers

Glad you agree your posts about leavers believing this or that are just your own brainfarts, with no credible evidence behind them

So remainers are no better than leavers?

[darmstadt]

Rant away, but don't dress up your beliefs as facts and then try to stereotype/generalise based on those same beliefs.

What like Leavers do with Remainers

[Bean]

Probably because many of those 17 million believed headlines such as these:
images snipped

Aaaaaand there we are right on cue.

At least you've toned down the pomposity of 'all' to merely the contempt of 'many of' those 17 million.

Tell me, when were those 17 million people interviewed about the reasons behind their votes? (the link from NlyUk was 11205/17000000 and we assume half of those were remainers)

Do you have any evidence they not only 'believed headlines such as these', but also that it was the only factor in voting for them?

Thought not.

Rant away, but don't dress up your beliefs as facts and then try to stereotype/generalise based on those same beliefs.

[Bean]

Are all 17 million thick? No. Is there a correlation between being thick and supporting Brexit? It would appear so.

https://www.onlineprivacyfoundation....rendum-update/ (see linky for graphs refeenced in quote below).

A correlation in the results of a web-based survey etc, that was 0.06591% (11205) of the 17 million - careful you don't try and ascribe causation, given the statistically insignificant low sample size (in proportion to the target group)!

That being said, I did laugh at this gem on that website you linked;

"and lower levels of openness and neuroticism than voters expressing an intent to vote to remain."

Neuroticism- from wiki:

"is one of the Big Five higher-order personality traits in the study of psychology. Individuals who score high on neuroticism are more likely than average to be moody and to experience such feelings as anxiety, worry, fear, anger, frustration, envy, jealousy, guilt, depressed mood, and loneliness."

Yep, that's pretty much remainers alright


Then, for a laugh, I carried on reading and found;

"In the experimental studies, voters on both sides were, for the most part, found to be similarly susceptible to the cognitive biases tested, specifically ideological motivated reasoning, framing and the Dunning-Kruger effect."

So there we have it - according to this currently informal study, both sides are susceptible to specifically ideological motivated reasoning, framing, etc.

"Next Steps
We are currently working through the completion of a formal paper and will be presenting results at the International Conference on Political Psychology in Copenhagen."

Sooooo, not yet peer-reviewed?


Side-question: Shouldn't you/we be pitying thick people for their (expected) poor choices, instead of laughing/sneering/cheering at the potential hurt and pain they've caused themselves?
(I know, I know, that would mean having compassion and empathy - but thought I'd ask anyway)

[Whorty]

'We ARE leaving the EU’ David Davis issues veiled threat to walk away from Brussels talks

David Davis issues threat to the EU.

yeah

Haven't we been issuing the same threat now week after week, only to then surrender and offer up even more money. May, Boris, Davis et al clearly know that the EU has us over a barrel else they would have walked by now. The EU know they have us over a barrel else they would be starting the trade talks by now. The only idiots who don't see the reality of all this is those that voted out ... but then they only believe what they see on the side of a bus or on Facebook

[darmstadt]

I think your generalisation goes further to explain it, than 1 'media org'.

Go on - tell us how 17 million people are all thick, and that you (and others) know better....

Then ask yourself if the vote, was at least in part, a rebellious act by some of the public - against such people with similar views of contempt

Probably because many of those 17 million believed headlines such as these: