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What do you honestly think will happen in 2020?

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    What do you honestly think will happen in 2020?

    I am now into the final 2 weeks of my 8.5 year contracting career, having accepted a permanent role (after a super protracted recruitment process it has to be said). I've generally worked in Edinburgh for the big Banks and financial institutions, as a Senior BA or PM and am as generic as they come in terms of my skill set!

    It's obviously impossible to predict the future, but I think this is the right decision for me - the role and company do genuinely excite me, the hit to the take home cash is manageable, and I could progress at this company if things go well (is much different to the big Banks I have been working at, although is still in the industry). Apart from IR35 and Brexit, I've not felt that professionally fulfilled in recent years so this will hopefully help there. If it doesn't work out, then I'll give it 18 months / 2 years at the very least and then see where the land lies in the contracting market. Or win the lottery.

    It really does 'feel' to me like the next 6-12 months might be more towards the doomsday scenarios that many on here and in the know have been predicting - just looking at the quietness of the market, the fact the place I am at isn't extending beyond February 2020, and other noises in the market. I think I could have sucked up a hit to the day rate or losing some if I had to pay additional tax - I was more worried about the lack of roles available, which will only get worse as more contractors come to the end of their current gig. It's crazy speaking with a lot of current and former colleagues - they are either completely unaware, or super relaxed thinking it won't impact them at all.

    How do you learned folk think it will play out?

    #2
    It's impossible to predict the future.
    'CUK forum personality of 2011 - Winner - Yes really!!!!

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      #3
      the sun will rise in the east and set in the west
      Entropy is NOT what it used to be.
      Inertia, however........................

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        #4
        I think the big banks will chuck all the generic BA’s/PM under a bus and declare them all within IR35 for future and past roles and like the loan schemes, HMRC will come after all contractors for the past 20 years tax (in your case 8.5 years) qdos and ipse will fold under the weight of tax investigations (they can’t fight them all) and you will like your new job until you get your 1st salary pay slip


        Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

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          #5
          Originally posted by GhostofTarbera View Post
          I think the big banks will chuck all the generic BA’s/PM under a bus and declare them all within IR35 for future and past roles and like the loan schemes, HMRC will come after all contractors for the past 20 years tax (in your case 8.5 years) qdos and ipse will fold under the weight of tax investigations (they can’t fight them all) and you will like your new job until you get your 1st salary pay slip


          Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum
          Resource Solutions are planning to hand all of their contractors over to Mansion House Consultancy in October by all accounts. All contractors who are presently outside IR35 with RS (with end clients being the Banks) will be allowed to remain so when with MH. They will not be able to invoice weekly any more and everything will be Project milestone based but other than this business will be as usual.

          Personally I think they are mad as I cannot see how it can possibly work as, as far as I know, the BIG change in April is that the end client (the Bank) must make a decision on the end user (contractor) on whether they are out or in. If the banks have stated they think the contractors are inside but MH act as if the contractors are outside then I would imagine the iR will come after MH. However, I am guessing that the banks have stated neither and are under the impression it's not their problem. Unfortunately, it is their problem.

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            #6
            Not sure I have seen many learned folk on CUK. But I think HMRC learnt from Arctic. HMRC will bully, harrass and intimidate mostly focusing on the low hanging fruit.

            I think those providing IR35 insurance will do well.

            Some employers will just throw all their contractors under a bus. Especially financial organizations.

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              #7
              Originally posted by BrilloPad View Post
              Not sure I have seen many learned folk on CUK. But I think HMRC learnt from Arctic. HMRC will bully, harrass and intimidate mostly focusing on the low hanging fruit.

              I think those providing IR35 insurance will do well.

              Some employers will just throw all their contractors under a bus. Especially financial organizations.
              Those who read CUK and have heeded (or indeed have given) advice regarding contract review, insurance and working practices will be the ones HMRC will struggle with, but they are a tiny minority compared to those who have never heard of CUK and either don’t know or don’t care about IR35.
              "I can put any old tat in my sig, put quotes around it and attribute to someone of whom I've heard, to make it sound true."
              - Voltaire/Benjamin Franklin/Anne Frank...

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                #8
                Most people I know are looking at options to find a permanent role. General thought that contracting is dead. No problem with starting contracting again of it turns out not to be. I'd prefer someone else to be the bellwether that HMRC goes after.

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by mogga71 View Post
                  Resource Solutions are planning to hand all of their contractors over to Mansion House Consultancy in October by all accounts. All contractors who are presently outside IR35 with RS (with end clients being the Banks) will be allowed to remain so when with MH. They will not be able to invoice weekly any more and everything will be Project milestone based but other than this business will be as usual.

                  Personally I think they are mad as I cannot see how it can possibly work as, as far as I know, the BIG change in April is that the end client (the Bank) must make a decision on the end user (contractor) on whether they are out or in. If the banks have stated they think the contractors are inside but MH act as if the contractors are outside then I would imagine the iR will come after MH. However, I am guessing that the banks have stated neither and are under the impression it's not their problem. Unfortunately, it is their problem.
                  In some banks, Resource Solutions are the outsourced HR department so it's 'possible' you could say the client is making the determination, albeit via their outsourced facility.

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                    #10
                    I was at a FreeAgent accountant gathering on Thursday, had this discussion with a few people.

                    General expectation is that lower earning/skilled contractors (hence more likely to be controlled) will likely only be offered inside IR35 contracts, or permie roles/umbrella. Higher earning/skilled ones will have the power to negotiate outside roles, where they'll be given the freedom/control.

                    In terms of % clients (ie contractors) lost, predictions ranged from 20%-40%. Most accounting firms should weather the storm, though it will be a rocky 12 months (yes, ). Extra work required getting lots of companies ready for close down in quick succession whilst income drops. Maslins have been building up reserves a little while for this, and are currently recruiting to help with the extra work.

                    I think there is a risk that some contractor accounting firms simply disappear. Ie contractor has paid £X/month to them, need work done, but a bit like with some of the scheme providers, the phones stop being answered/emails replied to. This would be a rubbish scenario for both contractor (who potentially has to pay twice for same piece of work) and new accountancy firm (who has to pick up the pieces, realistically with no handover information).

                    Key thing contractors should do (always a good idea, but especially so now) is to get a good understanding of their company's affairs, ensure they know what all their tax references are, get their HMRC portal enrolled with those taxes etc.

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