The official "World War ]i[" thread

[doodab]

So in effect we are hoping that is all Putin wants to do, as no one can "militarily" stand up to him? Bit of a precarious place to be in isn't it?

NATO can stand up to him militarily, they just won't. Not over Crimea, and not over Ukraine. He knows damn well that if he goes further than that he'll have a proper war on his hands that he stands little chance of winning.

Do you really think the situation would be less precarious if thousands of NATO troops rolled into a non-NATO country and started fortifying the border in preparation to drive the Russians out of Crimea?

[suityou01]

NATO can stand up to him militarily, they just won't. Not over Crimea, and not over Ukraine. He knows damn well that if he goes further than that he'll have a proper war on his hands that he stands little chance of winning.

Do you really think the situation would be less precarious if thousands of NATO troops rolled into a non-NATO country and started fortifying the border in preparation to drive the Russians out of Crimea?

Well the situation is currently at "FlashPoint", so I would hope there would be a proportionate show of might to show Putin he cannot have it all his way.

I think this needs a wider focus from world leaders. Kerry's comments about 19th century tactics were spot on. This is setting rather an alarming precedent for the 21st century. The more pussy footing that goes on, who knows how big his ego will swell.

Hitlers original requests for Sudetenland were "reasonable". Much diplomacy later, he then became more demanding and less reasonable.

Putin currently says his response is "wholly proportionate". How long it remains so is anybody's guess. What happens if ethnic Russian minorities in neighbouring countries ask for help as well?

As I say, dangerous precedents being set.

[doodab]

As I say, dangerous precedents being set.

Yes, he might invade Chelsea next.

[suityou01]

Yes, he might invade Chelsea next.

Grow up.

[Ticktock]

So in effect we are hoping that is all Putin wants to do, as no one can "militarily" stand up to him? Bit of a precarious place to be in isn't it?

Not so much. A few reasons:
If he were to take Ukraine then he absorbs their massive debts into the, already fragile, Russian economy. What does he gain that he doesn't get from a puppet state?
"Protecting Russians" in an autonomous region, ostensibly at their request is a lot easier to get away with diplomatically than invading and holding a country.
Invading Ukraine would lead to, initially, fierce fighting with Ukrainian troops. After they were defeated (which is a fairly foregone conclusion) he would then face resistance fights. These would most likely come from numerous sides, not all likely to even be co-operating, so no one force to defeat. There would be Ukrainian nationalists, Ukrainian Nationalists (i.e. far right groups) and Tatars who would possibly draw in Muslim fighters for another Chechnya. Again, what does he gain over a puppet state?

[Goatfell]

Observing the signatories of a defence treaty backing out of it might worry ex Soviet Block countries that could border a new region/state/province: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.
Granted these are EU countries so it would be a whole new ballgame as far as a land grab might be concerned, but some of them, including the Baltic states, have "Russian speaking" minorities that may feel oppressed and in need of Mother's protection.

[suityou01]

Observing the signatories of a defence treaty backing out of it might worry ex Soviet Block countries that could border a new region/state/province: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.
Granted these are EU countries so it would be a whole new ballgame as far as a land grab might be concerned, but some of them, including the Baltic states, have "Russian speaking" minorities that may feel oppressed and in need of Mother's protection.

WHS + 1

[doodab]

Grow up.

Your the one suggesting a massive military escalation on our side would make the world a safer place.

That sort of threat should only be made if you're prepared to carry it through. I think it's quite clear that NATO isn't going to go to war over Crimea, ergo, we shouldn't be making empty military gestures as that means we'll not be taken seriously in the future, and that is a dangerous precedent.

Even if Putin does intend a full scale invasion of Europe in the long term, and it makes no sense that he would unless he really is a power crazed madman, it would be idiotic to start a full scale war now, when we aren't prepared, and while he controls a large chunk of our energy supplies.

Like it or not, Putin has judged the situation well and made the most of it.

[doodab]

Granted these are EU countries so it would be a whole new ballgame as far as a land grab might be concerned, but some of them, including the Baltic states, have "Russian speaking" minorities that may feel oppressed and in need of Mother's protection.

They are all NATO countries as well so that would be a very different ball game.

[suityou01]

Your the one suggesting a massive military escalation on our side would make the world a safer place.

That sort of threat should only be made if you're prepared to carry it through. I think it's quite clear that NATO isn't going to go to war over Crimea, ergo, we shouldn't be making empty military gestures as that means we'll not be taken seriously in the future, and that is a dangerous precedent.

Even if Putin does intend a full scale invasion of Europe in the long term, and it makes no sense that he would unless he really is a power crazed madman, it would be idiotic to start a full scale war now, when we aren't prepared, and while he controls a large chunk of our energy supplies.

Like it or not, Putin has judged the situation well and made the most of it.

My comment was in response to your Chelsea comment. Stick to the facts. Here we have no kind of military response. We are losing time. You even have to ask if Putin is a mad man?