The official "World War ]i[" thread

[Ticktock]

Why would China comment on a regional conflict that hasn't yet spiralled out of control, and in a completely different continent? This is too contrived. Did Russia comment on their recent rhetoric against Japan?

Because China also likes to annex places that aren't really Chinese.

Alternatively perhaps they and the Koreans are planning on joining in the 3rd world war as part of an unholy alliance with Russia, al queda, the iranians and the SNP.

More the point that China and Russia are in dispute over border areas too - there are parts of Russia with large numbers of "ethnic Chinese, Chinese speaking peoples" - perhaps these people feel threatened and would ask Beijing for protection from oppression by Russians.
That's not going to happen, but it gives an insight. What Russia is doing on its west, other countries could replicate the excuses for on its east.

[doodab]

I respectfully challenge your view. Putin saw Obama's reaction and backpedalling over Syria, and this has "emboldened" him, according to reports. Who knows what he thinks he can get away with. He is clearly planning for a conflict as the Russian troops are digging trenches on the border with Ukraine. He applied for (and got) permission to use military force in Ukraine, not Crimea, Ukraine.

His actions are those of someone about to go on a land grab.

Yes, I agree. He may well think he can get away with invading Ukraine, and he may well be right, because at the moment it looks like nobody except the Ukrainians are prepared to use military force to try and stop him.

And that's exactly my point. He believes that NATO will stay out of it, and he's probably right. He isn't going to try and carry on into Poland. So NATO aren't going to start shooting and no one is going to use the nukes.

At most you'll see supplies of weapons to the Ukrainians. Even that will be limited as most of their equipment follows soviet standards,all of their planes are Russian etc. It would take time to train their personnel on western equipment, their ammo stocks most likely won't fit western weapons and so on.

[suityou01]

Er, wrong PM & wrong decade.



Neville Chamberlain, coming back from a meeting mit dear old Adolph.

Thank you Zeity. I appreciate it.

[doodab]

Er, wrong PM & wrong decade.

I thought he was referring to the order for Polaris....

[suityou01]

Yes, I agree. He may well think he can get away with invading Ukraine, and he may well be right, because at the moment it looks like nobody except the Ukrainians are prepared to use military force to try and stop him.

And that's exactly my point. He believes that NATO will stay out of it, and he's probably right. He isn't going to try and carry on into Poland. So NATO aren't going to start shooting and no one is going to use the nukes.

At most you'll see supplies of weapons to the Ukrainians. Even that will be limited as most of their equipment follows soviet standards,all of their planes are Russian etc. It would take time to train their personnel on western equipment, their ammo stocks most likely won't fit western weapons and so on.

My fear is that they (NATO) start digging trenches on the Polish border with the Ukraine. That really would put the tulips up me.

[Ticktock]

Yes, I agree. He may well think he can get away with invading Ukraine, and he may well be right, because at the moment it looks like nobody except the Ukrainians are prepared to use military force to try and stop him.

And that's exactly my point. He believes that NATO will stay out of it, and he's probably right. He isn't going to try and carry on into Poland.

I'm not sure whether he'd go for the whole of Ukraine. Keep Crimea, like South Ossetia? Sure, probably.
He'd probably then want to use that to ratchet up divisions and infighting in Ukraine to the point that the government is deposed and a Moscow friendly candidate gains power (again).

Invading Europe is highly unlikely. I'm not sure what other former Soviet republics have high numbers of "ethnic Russians", but I'm sure any that do would be getting worried. The pattern here is for claims of oppression, calls for division from the nation, requests for Russian "protection" and then for Putin to roll the troops in, while the rest of the world tuts and says how naughty he is.
I can't see this changing unless they actually stand up to Putin. Doing that under a UN security charter is impossible. Either countries look at military deterrance outside the UN, or try to find ways to harm Russia diplomatically / economically. While Russia holds so much gas, those options are limited.

[doodab]

I'm not sure whether he'd go for the whole of Ukraine. Keep Crimea, like South Ossetia? Sure, probably.

Yes, I think it unlikely as well. It would cost a lot of Russian lives and result in a long running resistance campaign that would need to be oppressed, and it's hard to see what he has to gain given that the Ukrainian economy would collapse.

[suityou01]

I'm not sure whether he'd go for the whole of Ukraine. Keep Crimea, like South Ossetia? Sure, probably.
He'd probably then want to use that to ratchet up divisions and infighting in Ukraine to the point that the government is deposed and a Moscow friendly candidate gains power (again).

Invading Europe is highly unlikely. I'm not sure what other former Soviet republics have high numbers of "ethnic Russians", but I'm sure any that do would be getting worried. The pattern here is for claims of oppression, calls for division from the nation, requests for Russian "protection" and then for Putin to roll the troops in, while the rest of the world tuts and says how naughty he is.
I can't see this changing unless they actually stand up to Putin. Doing that under a UN security charter is impossible. Either countries look at military deterrance outside the UN, or try to find ways to harm Russia diplomatically / economically. While Russia holds so much gas, those options are limited.

So in effect we are hoping that is all Putin wants to do, as no one can "militarily" stand up to him? Bit of a precarious place to be in isn't it?

[Troll]

I hope you are right. There were those that were relieved when Harold Macmillan held "a piece of paper".

I suspect this is all a foregone conclusion, and the acts of diplomacy are there just to buy time.

numnuts

[suityou01]

Yes, I think it unlikely as well. It would cost a lot of Russian lives and result in a long running resistance campaign that would need to be oppressed, and it's hard to see what he has to gain given that the Ukrainian economy would collapse.

The Russia has deep historical ties with Ukraine. The modern Russia was effectively born there AFAIUI. So it's a point of pride among also wanting his Eastern trade bloc. Also I think a show of might. And that Crimea is a route to the med. Also Ukraine has a big gas pipe running through it.

Lots of reasons that don't really involve the Ukranian economy I think.