Have we done...

[vetran]

Yes, eventually, because economic well being => lower child mortality and eventually that leads to a fall in the birth rate.

so the reason all the rich families and those on benefits have more kids than low/middle income families is because they are strapped for cash?

As mentioned above its a micro (frequently economic) decision.

If you are struggling on average wage with two kids you don't have any more, you can't afford it.

If you are in Africa and you believe your kids may die in childhood or you need more to provide for you when you are old you have a big family. Remember apart from food it doesn't really cost more and you can put them to work so they are an investment.

If you are a millionaire you can decide to have a big family.

If you are on benefits and are funded according to the amount you breed then you have a big family.

[sasguru]

It's a micro decision.

As mentioned above its a micro (frequently economic) decision.
.

No. Please. Stop. It hurts.

[vetran]

No. Please. Stop. It hurts.

then go back to drawing with your crayons rather than sticking them up your nose!

[doodab]

so the reason all the rich families and those on benefits have more kids than low/middle income families is because they are strapped for cash?

You're comparing two people in different economic circumstances in the same place at the same point in time. You need to compare equivalent people in different times and places, specifically at times when there is a large difference in death rates. How does that influence their decision?

Look at the global picture, e.g. birth rates by country. Rich countries breed a lot less than poor ones, on the whole.

List of sovereign states and dependent territories by fertility rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

But look at the correllation between infant mortality and breeding...

As mentioned above its a micro (frequently economic) decision.

I never said that it wasn't. The point is that if you add up all those individual decisions, you get a macroeconomic statistic. Luckily we don't have to add them up because nature does it for us, and the end result of all those little decisions is that the UK has a fertility rate of < 2 and Somalia has a fertility rate of 6.

Now, if you look at what happens in a particular place over time, say by plotting a graph of birth and death rates over time, you see that once the death rate falls the birth rate follows it some time after. Again this is the result of lots of people making lots of individual decisions, but the end result is an overall fall in the birth rate.

This is why I could never be a teacher.

[Old Greg]

But SAS, Sas I so want to be like you. Able to ignore any sane argument and bluster through attacking every dissenter as a Cretin.

But to be fair to Sas, you are a cretin.

[eek]

Now, if you look at what happens in a particular place over time, say by plotting a graph of birth and death rates over time, you see that once the death rate falls the birth rate follows it some time after. Again this is the result of lots of people making lots of individual decisions, but the end result is an overall fall in the birth rate.

This is why I could never be a teacher.

The problem is that the death rate / birth rate correlation doesn't seem to fit many current populations. Birth rates are dropping while death rates remain high.

[vetran]

Hey Doodab, I'm trying to understand so don't take this the wrong way, I seem to have upset SAS, would rather not do that with you.

The point I was struggling to make is its far too simplistic to say rich country=low birth rate.

Look at the global picture, e.g. birth rates by country. Rich countries breed a lot less than poor ones, on the whole.

Nature may roll up today's reality but if the Chaos theory's butterfly effect is correct little changes can make huge differences and in life there are so many little changes.

I suspect its a lot more complicated, for instance newly prosperous countries are less likely to use old fashioned pill based birth control with such high levels of hormones so the water is less likely to be filled with Estrogen lowering fertility. The Pill being the biggest effect on births would fit the dates.

Similarly now hormone injections in Cows are pretty much banned what effect will that have? Indeed in some countries most people don't even eat cows.

Catholic & Muslim faiths both encourage large families to propagate the faith, most MEDC's are ostensibly Christian, many of the up and coming LEDC's are Catholic/Muslim.

all of these are in the pot and saying hey look rich Christian developed countries that have run the full gamut of development have lower birth rates so Africa/India will be the same over the next 50 years seems somewhat hopeful.

[BrilloPad]

But to be fair to Sas, you are a cretin.

And you would know, big nose.

[doodab]

The problem is that the death rate / birth rate correlation doesn't seem to fit many current populations. Birth rates are dropping while death rates remain high.

In which case the population will shrink. It is true that in many developed countries the birth rate has fallen below the replacement rate, but death rates in those countries are not high. They already fell by a huge amount.

Birth rates also fall in times of economic hardship bit it's a fairly low level fluctuation, percent rather than factors of ten. They usually recover. Look at depression era US.

[doodab]

Hey Doodab, I'm trying to understand so don't take this the wrong way, I seem to have upset SAS, would rather not do that with you.

The point I was struggling to make is its far too simplistic to say rich country=low birth rate.



Nature may roll up today's reality but if the Chaos theory's butterfly effect is correct little changes can make huge differences and in life there are so many little changes.

I suspect its a lot more complicated, for instance newly prosperous countries are less likely to use old fashioned pill based birth control with such high levels of hormones so the water is less likely to be filled with Estrogen lowering fertility. The Pill being the biggest effect on births would fit the dates.

Similarly now hormone injections in Cows are pretty much banned what effect will that have? Indeed in some countries most people don't even eat cows.

Catholic & Muslim faiths both encourage large families to propagate the faith, most MEDC's are ostensibly Christian, many of the up and coming LEDC's are Catholic/Muslim.

all of these are in the pot and saying hey look rich Christian developed countries that have run the full gamut of development have lower birth rates so Africa/India will be the same over the next 50 years seems somewhat hopeful.

Well, the catholic countries in Europe have some of the lowest fertility rates, along with Japan, most of Asia is low, Brazil's is less than Sweden's and India's is falling. It seems to hold up pretty well.