Have we done...

[doodab]

Yes, I pointed you at the noddy edited highlights version of one of them.

Er, no, that was an article about child mortality in Africa, and the "link between mortality and broader demographic change" which "seems weak" is actually a link looking the other way i.e. saying that some countries have reduced birth rates without reducing child mortality, which was unexpected precisely because the birth rate doesn't usually come down unless child mortality has fallen

The link between reduced infant mortality and reductions in birth rates in later generations is sufficiently well established to be taught as part of GCSE geography.

BBC - GCSE Bitesize: The demographic transition model

[sasguru]

Er, no, that was an article about child mortality in Africa, and the "link between mortality and broader demographic change" which "seems weak" is actually a link looking the other way i.e. saying that some countries have reduced birth rates without reducing child mortality, which was unexpected precisely because the birth rate doesn't usually come down unless child mortality has fallen

The link between reduced infant mortality and reductions in birth rates in later generations is sufficiently well established to be taught as part of GCSE geography.

BBC - GCSE Bitesize: The demographic transition model

Careful, you're probably being too optimistic if you think he could comprehend at that level.

[vetran]

rather than being a silly little ignorant troll.

But SAS, Sas I so want to be like you. Able to ignore any sane argument and bluster through attacking every dissenter as a Cretin.

so because the Population Growth Rate has declined since a 1962 high then growth will fall below replacement rate? This is a fact!!!!!!

The causes suggested for the drop far from being absolute or cultural changes are being solved as we speak.

Does your model include the Papal change in the use of barrier contraception or changes to Paternity / maternity leave? Do recent discoveries around falling fertility not count? Will the loss of power at Christmas create a surge in pregnancies.

or is this 50 year blip (not even half a human life span) sufficient to convince you the world doesn't spin round the sun?

[sasguru]

But SAS, Sas I so want to be like you. Able to ignore any sane argument and bluster through attacking every dissenter as a Cretin.

so because the Population Growth Rate has declined since a 1962 high then growth will fall below replacement rate? This is a fact!!!!!!

The causes suggested for the drop far from being absolute or cultural changes are being solved as we speak.

Does your model include the Papal change in the use of barrier contraception or changes to Paternity / maternity leave? Do recent discoveries around falling fertility not count? Will the loss of power at Christmas create a surge in pregnancies.

or is this 50 year blip (not even half a human life span) sufficient to convince you the world doesn't spin round the sun?

Do you just write down the random stuff that occurs in your brain without any analytical filter whatsoever?
Just curious because that's what it looks like.
You're desperately in need of a course in clear thinking.

[eek]

Er, no, that was an article about child mortality in Africa, and the "link between mortality and broader demographic change" which "seems weak" is actually a link looking the other way i.e. saying that some countries have reduced birth rates without reducing child mortality, which was unexpected precisely because the birth rate doesn't usually come down unless child mortality has fallen

The link between reduced infant mortality and reductions in birth rates in later generations is sufficiently well established to be taught as part of GCSE geography.

BBC - GCSE Bitesize: The demographic transition model

Which was why I picked the article in the first place and I even said it was the flip side of the argument.

The thing is that birth rates are a micro economic decision made on an individual basis. Just look at France and Germany. No matter how much money their governments throw at increasing family sizes nothing is working.

[sasguru]

The thing is that birth rates are a micro economic decision made on an individual basis. .

No tulip Sherlock. And your point is?

[vetran]

Careful, you're probably being too optimistic if you think he could comprehend at that level.

Well you can't

Limitations of the model
The model was developed after studying the experiences of countries in Western Europe and North America. Conditions might be different for LEDCs in different parts of the world.
The original model doesn't take into account the fact that some countries now have a declining population and a 5th stage. Most texts will now show this stage as it is relevant to an increasing number of MEDCs in the 21st century.

Population is not a pull growth, its a push. It expands to what is available.

Culture may restrict its growth, death rate may slow it, longevity may change it but overall given a chance we breed like rabbits.

You can jerk off over a blip as long as you want but sure as eggs is eggs population will grow given a chance.

[eek]

No tulip Sherlock. And your point is?

That the person who posted the original blog entry is king cretin

[sasguru]

Well you can't




Population is not a pull growth, its a push. It expands to what is available.

Culture may restrict its growth, death rate may slow it, longevity may change it but overall given a chance we breed like rabbits.

You can jerk off over a blip as long as you want but sure as eggs is eggs population will grow given a chance.

Thanks for your considered opinion. I'm sure it will get the respect it deserves.

[sasguru]

That the person who posted the original blog entry is king cretin

Tell you what you multiply every part of your model by 0.25.