Spring seems to have sprung

[sasguru]

Actually I did. If an actual data set is clearly far far bigger than the known dataset don't make assumptions based on the relative size of data within the known dataset.

.

Feck me I just read what you wrote
You've just described sampling which is the main basis of statistics (not that that has any relevance to AGW as we were discussing it).

I'm going to be laughing for the rest of the afternoon now.
Jeez trying to make sense of the world for you guys must be like a blind man feelin his way in a fog

[sasguru]

You work?



Yeah course you are.

Not if I can help it.
Still getting paid though.

[pjclarke]

Why did nobody tell me?

Blimey! A GW thread and I missed it! The usual suspects and the usual tactics. First grab a misleading headline from a dubious source for ridicule ...

Could be worse, 10,000 of us could be dead from heat and Malaria.

Global Warming Effects Could Kill 10,000 in the UK by 2012

Shall we see the actual prediction(s) from the report in question?

The findings show the UK is adapting well to rising temperatures experienced since the 1970s, but heatwaves pose an increasing risk to health and there is an increased risk of flooding. There is even a very slight chance that malaria could return to the South of England during the next 50-100 years, although outbreaks of this disease are likely to be rare and involve a small number of people.

- By 2012 there will be a 1 in 40 chance that the South East of England will experience a serious heatwave causing 3,000 immediate heat-related deaths.

- While malaria outbreaks in Britain are likely to remain rare and easily controlled, health authorities need to remain alert to the possibility of larger outbreaks in continental Europe and the emergence of more deadly European strains of mosquitoes in wetland areas of Britain .

- Tick-borne diseases such as Lyme disease are likely to become more common due to changes in land management and an increase in outside leisure time.

- Increased exposure to sunlight will lead to a rise in skin cancers.
The number of people at a high risk from flooding is set to rise from 1.5 million to 3.5 million by 2100.

- There will be up to 14,000 (14.5 per cent) more cases of food poisoning, including Salmonella, per year.

Heh. Anybody noticed any serious floods recently? Or heatwaves ...?

Heatwave kills 1,000 | Mail Online

Ooops!

[MyUserName]

Jeez trying to make sense of the world for you guys must be like a blind man feelin his way in a fog

If the man was blind what difference would a fog make?

[EternalOptimist]

If the man was blind what difference would a fog make?

It's hyperbole
he talks hyperbollocks

[eek]

Re: Spring seems to have sprung

Hmm sampling. Strange that you missed it and the potential consequences it had on the bollox you wrote in your original comments in this thread and only brought it up when I pointed out your assumptions were tulip.

[pjclarke]

Global warming, as measured at the surface has indeed plateaued since 1998, a year which saw a powerful El Nino, though it remains within the predictions of 95% of climate model runs (in grey)



However most of the extra heat being returned to the planet by the greenhouse effect actually goes to increase the heat content of the oceans, this extra heat represents further surface warming in the pipeline ...



Oh dear.

[suityou01]

Ne'er cast a clout til May is out. I remember it snowing in April back in 1986. This is nothing new.

[EternalOptimist]

there you go SasGuru, three sources from your own side say temperatures have flatlined
met office
pachuri
pj


now pay attention, and you wont be left looking foolish again.

[BlasterBates]

So to summarise the heat is hiding somewhere in the ocean where no-one can measure it.

There are acurate measurements of the ocean surface temperature.