Time for a stock market crash

[SantaClaus]

There will be a correction soon for sure. It'l be the excuse the US Fed needs to launch QE3. I am looking at a 5-7% correction between now and the end of october, to be followed by an end of year rally to take the markets to new highs at years end.

No-ones buying corrections and nothings rallying.

[suityou01]

Daily pin played out today. Might see 1261 by September.

Sorry, what is the graph? Too small to be intelligable.

[ChimpMaster]

Fed trying to pump empty promises in the minutes released just now .... *yawn* this rally is getting a little tired. They're doing anything theyh can to prevent the otherwise inevitable decline. 4 years ago, if they had just let everything collapse, we could have built up into a better position now.

[sasguru]

Daily pin played out today. Might see 1261 by September.

You actually believe this bollux.

[SantaClaus]

You actually believe this bollux.

More fool you for not believing anything.

[SantaClaus]

Sorry, what is the graph? Too small to be intelligable.

S&P 500 Future

[sirja]

No-ones buying corrections and nothings rallying.

The Fed can only kick off QE3 in the face of a market scare. I just don't see how they do it with the Market almost at the 52 week high. The path of least resistance remains a Fed/Wall street induced correction (get the retail investors to sell their shares for a loss), create a mini-panic, then the Fed 'ride to the rescue' with QE3 and Wall street picks up the cheap shares in a year-end/Q1 rally. I am sticking with my prediction of S&P 500 to hit 1260 within the next 8 weeks. On a spreed bet I can risk 30 pts for a pos gain of 150pts.

[SantaClaus]

The Fed can only kick off QE3 in the face of a market scare. I just don't see how they do it with the Market almost at the 52 week high. The path of least resistance remains a Fed/Wall street induced correction (get the retail investors to sell their shares for a loss), create a mini-panic, then the Fed 'ride to the rescue' with QE3 and Wall street picks up the cheap shares in a year-end/Q1 rally. I am sticking with my prediction of S&P 500 to hit 1260 within the next 8 weeks. On a spreed bet I can risk 30 pts for a pos gain of 150pts.

I agree with everything you have said, apart from timing. I don't think there will be a rally in Q1 and I wouldn't put a time limit of 8 weeks on this. Timing and stoploss placement are the most difficult things.

Market tops tend to be messy, high's can get spiked more than once to take out amateur's stoplosses. The answer may be to take out an option or long-term binary bet.

Personally, I am short. And if we spike the highs again, I will short again.

P.S. Standard disclaimer applies... This is not investment advice. You makes your own investment decisions and live or die with the consequences

[sirja]

I agree with everything you have said, apart from timing. I don't think there will be a rally in Q1 and I wouldn't put a time limit of 8 weeks on this. Timing and stoploss placement are the most difficult things.

Market tops tend to be messy, high's can get spiked more than once to take out amateur's stoplosses. The answer may be to take out an option or long-term binary bet.

Personally, I am short. And if we spike the highs again, I will short again.

P.S. Standard disclaimer applies... This is not investment advice. You makes your own investment decisions and live or die with the consequences

Your 100% correct re market timing. I am playing the short via the 2x short FTSE ETF for the most part and a minor punt via a spread bet. I will look into binary options though never used them before but they could come in handy.

[sasguru]

More fool you for not believing anything.

You need to take courses in mathematical statistics including time series rather than practising what is akin to witchcraft.
HTH BIKIW