Originally posted by EternalOptimist
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Climate change
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Originally posted by MaryPoppinsI'd still not breastfeed a naziOriginally posted by vetranUrine is quite nourishing -
Originally posted by d000hg View PostWas that a typo or a cutting remark on humankind?(\__/)
(>'.'<)
("")("") Born to Drink. Forced to WorkComment
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and snow will become a thing of the past
Could it get more sad?
http://forums.contractoruk.com/gener...ml#post1472998My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.Comment
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The truth about IPCC predictions:
Last edited by BlasterBates; 3 April 2012, 06:18.I'm alright JackComment
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Let us deploy a little scepticism. These are not model runs so what is actually plotted here? No reference so let's make an educated guess; these look like the trends quoted in the Summaries of the IPCC reports, e.g. AR1:
Based on current models, we predict: under [BAU] increase of global mean temperature during the [21st] century of about 0.3 oC per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2 to 0.5 oC per decade);
Similarly the summary of AR2 (1995) gave a best estimate of a 2C rise by 2100, the reduction due to an increased understanding of aerosols. Again the authors seem to have attached a trend line of 0.2C/decade to the actual temperature, and off we go!
For AR3 the actual numbers are available - IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001 - Complete online versions | UNEP/GRID-Arendal - Publications - Other...
The scenarios were baselined in 1990 making a comparison fairly straightforward. Choice of scenario doesn't make much difference in the first few decades, but choosing scenario A1F1, which is arguably the nearest to actual conditions, the IPCC model projected a rise from 1990-2010 of 0.32C or 0.16C/ decade. The actual trend was 0.165C/decade.
I've no idea what this misleading graph is plotting, however the actual data from the IPCC shows that far from overestimating the actual rise, the current generation of models is spot on.
Sceptical Science have pages on each of the actual IPCC report forecasts - using the data not the summaries - and Realclimate recently updated their regular model/data comparisons. None of them looks anything like this graph. A little more scepticism is called for!My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.Comment
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Originally posted by pjclarke View Post.... climate change denier favourite killer argument. Twelve years ago, a non-science journalist assembled an ...
Could it get more sad?
(\__/)
(>'.'<)
("")("") Born to Drink. Forced to WorkComment
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the current generation of models is spot on.
Don't you think there will be a new generation of models in 10 years time?
The IPCC dataset is in any case inaccurate:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/
It really is pathetic.Last edited by BlasterBates; 3 April 2012, 08:51.I'm alright JackComment
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Well, here is the source of the graph 1990 IPCC predictions confront the data | Clive Best
Clive Best did indeed take text from the 1990 IPCC report, and derive a linear trend from it. He then attached that trend to the actual temperature in 1990.
The IPCC curves are based on a linear increase using the 1990 temperature value of HadCrut.
Statistical balony: comparing a linear trend with observations starting at a local peak artificially translates the IPCC projections upwards. The actual trends in HADCRUT and UAH since 1990 are 1.7 and 1.6C, well within the range projected by the IPCC.
This is not "The truth about IPCC predictions:" by any stretch of the imagination.My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.Comment
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Originally posted by pjclarke View PostWell, here is the source of the graph 1990 IPCC predictions confront the data | Clive Best
Clive Best did indeed take text from the 1990 IPCC report, and derive a linear trend from it. He then attached that trend to the actual temperature in 1990.
Statistical balony: comparing a linear trend with observations starting at a local peak artificially translates the IPCC projections upwards. The actual trends in HADCRUT and UAH since 1990 are 1.7 and 1.6C, well within the range projected by the IPCC.
This is not "The truth about IPCC predictions:" by any stretch of the imagination.
Nice try...but I think everyone can draw their own conclusions.I'm alright JackComment
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Nice try...but I think everyone can draw their own conclusions.My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.Comment
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