Argies Catch 22

[amcdonald]

Care to expand your view on that?

It would be an act of war against a NATO member, threaten to disband NATO unless we get the use of an aircraft carrier

Jobs a good en

[oscarose]

willy waving

Your favourite occupation

[Doggy Styles]

Your favourite occupation

At other men

[Troll]

The Rattenbach Report (into Argentina military performance in the 82 war)is so critical of Argentina's military leadership that the last dictator ordered it kept secret for 50 years.

By making it public, Mrs Kirchner said she hopes to show Argentina "will always be on the side of peace." She also said very little of the report needed to remain classified - just the names of an active Argentine intelligence agent and an islander who collaborated with Argentine forces.

I wonder if the islanders know who this is?

[Moscow Mule]

It makes me laugh to think the article keeps going on about an air presence. Saying even if they destroy the airfield, that the Typhoons might be in the air. OK china balls, where do they land when the fuel runs out?

You want to lend the article an intelligent label, yet it's full of bravado ("a small team of swarthy underwater knife fighters"), and far from the truth. It intimates looking at the troops coming in under a false flag cover, then doesn't move it forward, staying with an imaginary submarine force.

The truth is, 30-5o well trained troops could get to the island undetected (admitted in the article) and all they need to do is disable a 2 mile runway and a bank of rapiers. No matter how ******* good a typhoon is, if it cant take off and land, its as good as tits on a bull. So then you are left with 1200 troops with no air cover. How quick would they be to run up the white flag? I will tell you, very, very quickly.

Now the level of squaddie induced bravado again (and intellectual content so lauded by my good friend the mule):

Argentina is willy waving. However, it then goes on to state, your article remember, that whilst it is unlikely, it isn't impossible. Also, that the presumption is that Argentina doesn't have the stomach for a war, presuming there would be one. One, remember, that we have said we couldn't have. So the presumptions are that if the Argies did take over, which they could, we would enter into a full blown war, and launch Task Force 2. However, we can't launch task force 2, as we actually don't have task force 2, it doesn't exist.

Care to expand your view on that?

Gladly. Typhoon can take off in 300m with an air combat load, 500m in a heavier config. It can takeoff from the taxiway if required.

In the unlikely event the entire runway is rendered inoperable they will still be able to operate in limited capability.

The rapier batteries are mobile.

I think it unlikely that the defenders would surrender so easily.

In order for us to need TF2 the opposition requires a long sequence of events to go 90-100% right.

It's not impossible, it's just very, very unlikely - much like you being able to accept reasoned argument.

[Zoiderman]

I can accept reasoned argument, but this isn't it. 7000 ft fully loaded for a Typhoon is my understanding, but they could take off in 1200 ft, for air combat, but needs a minimum of 2300'

There is no reasoning in those articles. In the posts that follow, this is outlined; why isn't he discussing the false flag scenario, which to me would be the most obvious?

The Rapiers are mobile, but I believe missiles can also be targeted at these. Now, please, answer what would happen if the runway was made useless for the Typhoon, even if they could take off unladen? What would happen to them? Would they then fly to the ascension islands? Home? Do we have a tanker above flying around all the time? No, they';d have to ditch.

Now, please, when would air support arrive? A day? Could the barracks, without air cover and maybe with a diminished capacity for the rapiers, how long would 1200 troops hold on to a concerted bombing run?

The thing is, simply saying it could happen, but it wouldn't, isn't a reasoned argument; a reasoned argument is listing all possible scenarios, and then removing each one with a reasoned argument.

Saying the argies are just willy waving, isn't a reasoned argument.

The trouble is, I am trying to look at the whole scenario, and I believe it is possible. I appear not to have a monopoly on that view, even from your own links.

Lastly, do you know some inflatable craft were found by a routine patrol on FI and they haven't been accounted for.

The trouble is with most squaddies, is that they're all cock sure, have lots of bravado, but little intelligence and that forum you linked to, seemed full of them.

It could happen, absolutely. Of that I have no doubt.

[Moscow Mule]

The fact that a special forces raid is even necessary to take down MPA means you're already in the realms of extremely unlikely.

So to list, this SF group of 30-50 men have to:

• Escape detection in landing on the FI somewhere
• Make their way to MPA, on foot and undetected - any where from 5 miles (high chance of detection) to 35 miles (lower chance of detection)
• Breach the layered defence of MPA
• Plant enough charge to breach a hardened runway in approx 6-8 places
• Locate, and disable multiple rapier batteries
• Take out any mobile foot patrols with Javelin or Stinger
• Move to the port and hold until ship-born forces arrive (remember, you took out the runways)
• Hope that the on station SSN doesn't take out your ships

I have knocked this mission plan up in a couple of minutes. I'm sure there are a couple of holes in it somewhere.

Feel free to rework the mission until you've guaranteed success and the mounting of task force 2 becomes a requirement.

[Zoiderman]

The fact that a special forces raid is even necessary to take down MPA means you're already in the realms of extremely unlikely.

So to list, this SF group of 30-50 men have to:

• Escape detection in landing on the FI somewhere
• Make their way to MPA, on foot and undetected - any where from 5 miles (high chance of detection) to 35 miles (lower chance of detection)
• Breach the layered defence of MPA
• Plant enough charge to breach a hardened runway in approx 6-8 places
• Locate, and disable multiple rapier batteries
• Take out any mobile foot patrols with Javelin or Stinger
• Move to the port and hold until ship-born forces arrive (remember, you took out the runways)
• Hope that the on station SSN doesn't take out your ships

I have knocked this mission plan up in a couple of minutes. I'm sure there are a couple of holes in it somewhere.

Feel free to rework the mission until you've guaranteed success and the mounting of task force 2 becomes a requirement.

well, with the obvious glaring errors that if they've knocked off the runway, they can send in their planes, including airborne units aboard a C130/equiv. Come in with some fighters with AG missiles, that they'd very likely have their own missiles too.

The trouble is, even on that forum you mentioned, with 'some of the brightest military minds in the world', many express a belief it could be done.

Then there are the inflatables they have found, who is to say there aren't already argies there monitoring movements?

I don't think you've thought anything outside of the 'it aint going to happen' box to be honest, I genuinely dont

Sheesh...

[AtW]

I can accept reasoned argument, but this isn't it. 7000 ft fully loaded for a Typhoon is my understanding, but they could take off in 1200 ft, for air combat, but needs a minimum of 2300'

You seem to know a lot about aircraft.

Please tell me if it's possible to fly in a Tornado to Italy and back whilst eating some spaghetti?

[d000hg]

He not only knows about planes but is an expert on military history AND strategy. Apparently being in the armed forces is no match for his experience playing C&C:Red Alert.