Greek default in the next two weeks?

[BlasterBates]

Except that most holders bought it *beforehand* i.e. when it was still worth par, and would have been due 100% of their money back. With the haircut this is no longer the case.

So yes, it does make a difference.

You'll find they have already written most it off, in fact many bonds have been sold off i.e. at their discounts at the time. The ECB bought a lot all at a hefty discount. Those losses were booked,

The negotiated settlement will hardly blip.

The danger is if there were to be a collapse in the bonds of Italy or others, that's what they're worried about.

[MarillionFan]

Classic from Shirley Williams last night on Newsnight who said the Italian prime minister should go. When asked directly with a mention that MPs aren't really allowed to suggest other countries PMs should step down she categorically stated he should resign. You could almost read her mind 'He's a prossie shagging twunt'

[russell]

You'll find they have already written most it off, in fact many bonds have been sold off i.e. at their discounts at the time. The ECB bought a lot all at a hefty discount. Those losses were booked,

The negotiated settlement will hardly blip.

The danger is if there were to be a collapse in the bonds of Italy or others, that's what they're worried about.

So Germany etc just like to bail out Greece for fun? If Greece default Italy and Spain, Portugal will go with it. Then who knows. Maybe you should stick to climate change.

[doodab]

So Germany etc just like to bail out Greece for fun? If Greece default Italy and Spain, Portugal will go with it. Then who knows. Maybe you should stick to climate change.

If they don't italy or spain might go anyway. I think greece provides pointers to how the eurozone might manage a big one falling over ,and it might trigger a bit of panic in the markets as people dump other eurozone bonds but the simple reality is that those countries are under the cosh because of the state they are in, not because of the state greece is in, and greece standing or falling is by no means the sole arbiter of their fate.

[BlasterBates]

So Germany etc just like to bail out Greece for fun? If Greece default Italy and Spain, Portugal will go with it. Then who knows. Maybe you should stick to climate change.

No the negotiated default, won't blip. The aid package was agreed in conjunction with a 50% haircut (negotiated default) on bonds.

Obviously a unnegotiated default would mean Germany would need to inject capital into the banks. So it's worth them funding the bailout.

[suityou01]

If they don't italy or spain might go anyway. I think greece provides pointers to how the eurozone might manage a big one falling over ,and it might trigger a bit of panic in the markets as people dump other eurozone bonds but the simple reality is that those countries are under the cosh because of the state they are in, not because of the state greece is in, and greece standing or falling is by no means the sole arbiter of their fate.

Finally, WHS.

[suityou01]

I believe they have €2bn due on the 11th, another €4bn in December and another €4bn in January.

So they'll be going pop any time soon then?

[russell]

So they'll be going pop any time soon then?

Nope they got bailed out .

[suityou01]

Nope they got bailed out .

Errr, no they haven't.

[doodab]

Nope they got bailed out .

Errr, no they haven't.

It's all gone very quiet on the Greek front now the Italians are in the firing line. They haven't actually received the next wodge of cash yet, but they still have a month or so of breathing space. So anything could happen.

Greece, EU head for showdown over bailout pledge | Reuters