Who is prepared to admit they were wrong about the Euro?

[Mich the Tester]

Quite. Which is why the Euro was wishful thinking from the get go (like communism, a good idea if you ignore the realities).

Trouble is, back in the 90s the idea sort of gained momentum and people were portrayed as either 'for' or 'against'. Sensible questions about the suitability and compatibility of certain countries were pushed aside as being 'against'. In reality, lots of people were in favour and still are, but also had real doubts about the ambition of including all of western Europe instead of selectively building up with countries that could prove their economic solidity.

[sasguru]

Still there is now a choice - the PIIGS submit to a German dominated fiscal union or not. The Greeks in particular will not like that.
Its has if WW2 didn't happen and the Germans won

[milanbenes]

Its has if WW2 didn't happen and the Germans won

Its has if ?

run that past me again, you lost me there Squire

Milan.

[PRC1964]

This article in Vanity Fair goes some some way to describe how bad things in Greece are. I think it qualifies for an "Oh dear".

In addition to its roughly $400 billion (and growing) of outstanding government debt, the Greek number crunchers had just figured out that their government owed another $800 billion or more in pensions. Add it all up and you got about $1.2 trillion, or more than a quarter-million dollars for every working Greek. Against $1.2 trillion in debts, a $145 billion bailout was clearly more of a gesture than a solution. And those were just the official numbers; the truth is surely worse. “Our people went in and couldn’t believe what they found,” a senior I.M.F. official told me, not long after he’d returned from the I.M.F.’s first Greek mission. “The way they were keeping track of their finances—they knew how much they had agreed to spend, but no one was keeping track of what he had actually spent. It wasn’t even what you would call an emerging economy. It was a Third World country.”

As it turned out, what the Greeks wanted to do, once the lights went out and they were alone in the dark with a pile of borrowed money, was turn their government into a piñata stuffed with fantastic sums and give as many citizens as possible a whack at it. In just the past decade the wage bill of the Greek public sector has doubled, in real terms—and that number doesn’t take into account the bribes collected by public officials. The average government job pays almost three times the average private-sector job. The national railroad has annual revenues of 100 million euros against an annual wage bill of 400 million, plus 300 million euros in other expenses. The average state railroad employee earns 65,000 euros a year. Twenty years ago a successful businessman turned minister of finance named Stefanos Manos pointed out that it would be cheaper to put all Greece’s rail passengers into taxicabs: it’s still true. “We have a railroad company which is bankrupt beyond comprehension,” Manos put it to me. “And yet there isn’t a single private company in Greece with that kind of average pay.” The Greek public-school system is the site of breathtaking inefficiency: one of the lowest-ranked systems in Europe, it nonetheless employs four times as many teachers per pupil as the highest-ranked, Finland’s. Greeks who send their children to public schools simply assume that they will need to hire private tutors to make sure they actually learn something. There are three government-owned defense companies: together they have billions of euros in debts, and mounting losses. The retirement age for Greek jobs classified as “arduous” is as early as 55 for men and 50 for women. As this is also the moment when the state begins to shovel out generous pensions, more than 600 Greek professions somehow managed to get themselves classified as arduous: hairdressers, radio announcers, waiters, musicians, and on and on and on. The Greek public health-care system spends far more on supplies than the European average—and it is not uncommon, several Greeks tell me, to see nurses and doctors leaving the job with their arms filled with paper towels and diapers and whatever else they can plunder from the supply closets.

[Mich the Tester]

Still there is now a choice - the PIIGS submit to a German dominated fiscal union or not. The Greeks in particular will not like that.
Its has if WW2 didn't happen and the Germans won

I think more and more people in northern Euroland governments want a Greek exit, but it would have to be done in a very careful way. Trouble is, we keep being told there's no 'exit plan' for countries who fail to live up to the expectations; I think it's time to write that exit plan. Actually, it was time to do that years ago, but still, it needs to be done.

[Mich the Tester]

This article in Vanity Fair goes some some way to describe how bad things in Greece are. I think it qualifies for an "Oh dear".

'Oh dear' awarded. It sounds more like Zimbabwe than a European country.

[derekthedalek]

Obviously I'm in favour as it's part of our cunning and secret plan for upsetting the world applecart.

Oh...

[IR35 Avoider]

I admit I haven't been paying attention: I'm still not clear on why Greece going bust is a problem for the Euro as such.

I can understand that knock-on effects may effect Euro banks, governments and economies. I understand if Greece goes, there may be a domino effect and other countries will go. I understand that if all that happens it's a major disaster for everyone. But why should that happening cause the single currency to cease to exist? And how is it the fault of the currency in the first place? Surely the cause is Greek government spending money they didn't have and cooking the books to hide the fact.

Apparently at one time people believed that because Germany and Greece issued debt in the same currencies, the debt was equally safe to own, and should have similar interest rates. Why did people believe that? (I'm sure there is a good reason, something to do with all Euro debt being issued by ECB maybe, I'm just asking for someone to clarify it for me.)

[BlasterBates]

hang on is the Euro area in a bigger "bloody" mess than the US? Is the UK better off.

When Euroland is in a true mess and the US and the UK are booming with no huge debt I´ll come on board the "Euro was a mistake" . I don´t see this yet, Germany actually hasn´t yet paid a penny, they´ve earnt money and at the moment Germany is actually earning 10´s of millions in interest payments. I´m working in Switzerland where the Swiss national bank is throwing millions out the window keeping the Franc low, because thousands of businesses are about to go bankrupt. Most Swiss shops are completely empty. Greece with much kicking and swearing is actually cutting it´s budget deficit, which it wouldn´t have done if it was "on it´s own", and even Ireland looks like it´s coming out the worst of it. When Greece cut´s salaries which it has done this is no different to a devaluation. In fact it´s better than a devaluation, because the Greeks keep their savings in tact, inflation stays low, but they´ll become cheaper. So lets wait for a few years shall we and then draw our conclusions. I have a feeling Euroland will sort out it´s problems before the UK and the US will. I don´t see any real cuts at all in the UK or the US, yet.

Don´t believe the cr"p about if you devalue and spend even more money you´ll come through. Britain devalued several times and still ended up deep in the sh"te; that´s because there is no alternative to "pain". What was it Norman Lamont said? "if it´s not hurting its not working". Well Greece hurts.....

[Mich the Tester]

I admit I haven't been paying attention: I'm still not clear on why Greece going bust is a problem for the Euro as such.

I can understand that knock-on effects may effect Euro banks, governments and economies. I understand if Greece goes, there may be a domino effect and other countries will go. I understand that if all that happens it's a major disaster for everyone. But why should that happening cause the single currency to cease to exist? And how is it the fault of the currency in the first place? Surely the cause is Greek government spending money they didn't have and cooking the books to hide the fact.

Apparently at one time people believed that because Germany and Greece issued debt in the same currencies, the debt was equally safe to own, and should have similar interest rates. Why did people believe that? (I'm sure there is a good reason, something to do with all Euro debt being issued by ECB maybe, I'm just asking for someone to clarify it for me.)

Ummmm, good one. I think part of the trouble is that if Greece defaults then the speculators will jump on the other heavily indebted countries and will believe that they're going to defaul too. And if Greece leaves they'll assume the other heavily indebted countries will leave.

I don't know though, I'm actually rather bored of it all and a bit pissed off that we have to pay lots of taxes to pay people to sort this bloody mess out instead of fighting like little children.