Stock market collapse in November

[sasguru]

Eh? You're discounting all of the theory of pricing a share (or index) and noticing when it's under/over valued?

Yeah that works on the long run - I use it myself. Just to make it clear I invest a substantial sum on stocks - my point is about day-trading - if you buy a stock because its undervalued, you need to hold it for a while for its value to be realised. Similar to what I did with the banks in march.

[sasguru]

So why would you think day-trading is any more random than trading on the higher timeframes?

Surely they should all be random to the same extent?

And if so, there's not point in investing as that is random too

because of you look at the graph of a stock market over 20 years its usually a line going up (with the odd massive fall).
If you look at stock prices over a day it's all over the place.

[sasguru]

I'd classify you as a skillful tosser, not sure about coins...

This is supposed to be a reasonable debate. If you have nothing to contribute booger off.

[EternalOptimist]

You're missing the point. In a random system there is no skill. Or do you reckon there are skillful coin-tossers?

I am not missing the point.
I am describing a complex reactive system that contains an element of luck.
There are a set of complex rules, decision branching and, therefore, skill.

The only thing I dont know, is what level of skill is required to overcome the luck element.

[Moscow Mule]

Yeah that works on the long run - I use it myself. Just to make it clear I invest a substantial sum on stocks - my point is about day-trading - if you buy a stock because its undervalued, you need to hold it for a while for its value to be realised. Similar to what I did with the banks in march.

So, essentially, your argument is that day trading cannot be governed by a set of rules because you haven't seen (or is it believe) the rules and it therefore must be random?

[sasguru]

There are a set of complex rules, decision branching and, therefore, skill.

There are undoubetdly a set of rules, decision branching etc.- whether they match reality is what I am querying.

For example if we were tossing a fair coin, I could claim that before I threw it, if I bent down twice and touched my balls, then danced a rumba and then the dog barked, that then the coin would invariably come up heads.
The coin knows nothing of the rules you've set for it, however, and does what it wants.

[TimberWolf]

The only thing I dont know, is what level of skill is required to overcome the luck element.

0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 % surely?

[sasguru]

So, essentially, your argument is that day trading cannot be governed by a set of rules because you haven't seen (or is it believe) the rules and it therefore must be random?

I have an open mind and am willing to believe in reasonable evidence
Haven't had any on this thread though..

[DimPrawn]

I have an open mind ...

[EternalOptimist]

There are undoubetdly a set of rules, decision branching etc.- whether they match reality is what I am querying.

For example if we were tossing a fair coin, I could claim that before I threw it, if I bent down twice and touched my balls, then danced a rumba and then the dog barked, that then the coin would invariably come up heads.
The coin knows nothing of the rules you've set for it, however, and does what it wants.

No, but you know that people will not pay £20 for a two bob hat, you know the background forces and you know how the markets work.


plus that post was never worth three wry smilees, one at the most