Stock market collapse in November

[Moscow Mule]

I'm sure there are people who call themselves pro gamblers - but are they actually successful over a long period of time?

Yes, quite a few are.

I know of a chap who does arbitrage on betfair. He earns more now than when he was a trader at Goldmine. All with the lovely benefit of being 100% tax free.

If you google it, you will find them.

[sasguru]

Yes, quite a few are.

I know of a chap who does arbitrage on betfair. He earns more now than when he was a trader at Goldmine. .

I'm not particularly interested in what people claim, just in the reality.
Human nature is such that people will make all sorts of bizarre claims, all the while believing 100% in what they say e.g. its human nature to remember only the positives and not the negatives.
So some guy may say (and actually its true) that he made £500K on Betfair last year, not mentioning that he lost 1 million in the prior 2 years.

My mind is totally open to new money-making oppos BTW - there precious little benefit at the mo in your money being in banks/property.

[EternalOptimist]

Well its a fascinating question - but I still have no evidence that day trading is not completely random, and in fact from the statistics, that is is biased against the day trader since 70% of day-traders lose over the long run
I am also well aware of the human propensity to see patterns where none exist (its built into us from an evolutionary perpective).

And you would be indisputably correct if we didnt know that some of these gamers are more skillful than the herd.
There IS an element of skill. And SC , to me, is describing a game

[SantaClaus]

Yes, quite a few are.

I know of a chap who does arbitrage on betfair. He earns more now than when he was a trader at Goldmine. All with the lovely benefit of being 100% tax free.

If you google it, you will find them.

Yep there are so many ways to trade and none of them are really wrong if you can make a profit.

Betting Arbitrage is similar to a method using shares in a bank I used to work for. The problem is the profits are almost certain, but they are tiny compared to the capital you have to use. So you need a big account.

[sasguru]

And SC , to me, is describing a game

And there lies the crux of the matter - a random game (like flipping a coin) or one in which there is a skill (like poker)?

Using Occam's Razor, and in the absence of other evidence, I claim day-trading as being random. Any opposing views must provide evidence as to the existence of a more complex (non-random) system.

[Moscow Mule]

and in the absence of other evidence,

Eh? You're discounting all of the theory of pricing a share (or index) and noticing when it's under/over valued?

[EternalOptimist]

And there lies the crux of the matter - a random game (like flipping a coin) or one in which there is a skill (like poker)?

Using Occam's Razor, and in the absence of other evidence, I claim day-trading as being random. Any opposing views must provide evidence as to the existence of a more complex (non-random) system.

I already answered this.
The player is recognised as being more skilled by the other players, even though he is losing. More so, when he goes on to win consistantly

[sasguru]

I already answered this.
The player is recognised as being more skilled by the other players, even though he is losing. More so, when he goes on to win consistantly

You're missing the point. In a random system there is no skill. Or do you reckon there are skillful coin-tossers?

[SantaClaus]

And there lies the crux of the matter - a random game (like flipping a coin) or one in which there is a skill (like poker)?

Using Occam's Razor, and in the absence of other evidence, I claim day-trading as being random. Any opposing views must provide evidence as to the existence of a more complex (non-random) system.

So why would you think day-trading is any more random than trading on the higher timeframes?

Surely they should all be random to the same extent?

And if so, there's not point in investing as that is random too

[AtW]

Or do you reckon there are skillful coin-tossers?

I'd classify you as a skillful tosser, not sure about coins...