Footsie 5500 by christmas or year end?

[Fred Bloggs]

What does the panel reckon then?

I think there's an evens chance we could see 5500 by year end.

[DocP]

Hmm

Hyperinflation.

[Fred Bloggs]

Hyperinflation.

OK, 550000000000000 then?

[TimberWolf]

If it were possible to predict the stock market everyone could get rich by predicting it, which isn't possible. Ergo it's unpredictable, at least by the masses.

[Fred Bloggs]

If it were possible to predict the stock market everyone could get rich by predicting it, which isn't possible. Ergo it's unpredictable, at least by the masses.

I can predict it. If I buy it goes down. If I sell, it goes up. If I buy what I think will go down, then it goes down. If I buy what I think will go up, it goes down even more. Etc..........

[Liability]

What does the panel reckon then?

I think there's an evens chance we could see 5500 by year end.

all depends on ket data out of the states over the next 10 weeks and also figures from here. I would suspect that we will start to be trickled with recovery information from politcal sources anyway - as we come up to xmas and the election. but its not totally impossible - but the basis of the value would be absurd

[Andy2]

I can predict it. If I buy it goes down. If I sell, it goes up. If I buy what I think will go down, then it goes down. If I buy what I think will go up, it goes down even more. Etc..........

it happens to me aswell

[DaveB]

If it were possible to predict the stock market everyone could get rich by predicting it, which isn't possible. Ergo it's unpredictable, at least by the masses.

It's unpredictable by anyone. Thats part of the reason for the current problems. The Rocket Scientists in the banks thought they could predict the markets and create formula's to prdict and limit risk. The management belived them because they didnt understand them. Turned out they were wrong.

[TimberWolf]

It's unpredictable by anyone. Thats part of the reason for the current problems. The Rocket Scientists in the banks thought they could predict the markets and create formula's to prdict and limit risk. The management belived them because they didnt understand them. Turned out they were wrong.

Yeah, it probably broke down when the use of rocket scientists became common. Some people get insider information or can react faster or see trends that others don't see which can be an advantage until the day too many people start doing it. There's probably some science in that.

[DaveB]

Yeah, it probably broke down when the use of rocket scientists became common. Some people get insider information or can react faster or see trends that others don't see which can be an advantage until the day too many people start doing it. There's probably some science in that.

I think the problem is that there is no science involved outside of the formulas used to calculate individual trades. Market moves by +/-X, trade is worth +/-Y.

Being able to see trends or react to market movements is an art, not a science and is down to the abilities of individuals within their areas of expertise, not the application of complex formulas. The trouble started when people started thinking they could translate individual ability into generic formulas across the whole market.