Reply to: Footsie 5500 by christmas or year end?

[Fred Bloggs]

No point predicting that far ahead. I think it will exceed 5200 by the end of the month. Not sure what type of betting you do, but I have dabbled on the spread betting market and have lost a small amount. Have only put in £200 in, and only have £20 left. It's a learning curve... and only have lost what I can afford to lose. I may put in more money once I am off the bench.... but let's see where the market is taking things.

I don't spread bet. It would be financial suicide for me to do so.

I have started to invest a little cash into Comercial Property Unit Trusts. But the type of trust that invests directly in property which it leases to blue chip clients rather investing in property company stock which is stock market play rather than a direct property investment. I expect this to perform in the medium term since it is presently a basket case. I prefer to be contrarian in outlook, though I do tend to miss tops and bottoms of markets to a large degree.

[TimberWolf]

I think the problem is that there is no science involved outside of the formulas used to calculate individual trades. Market moves by +/-X, trade is worth +/-Y.

Being able to see trends or react to market movements is an art, not a science and is down to the abilities of individuals within their areas of expertise, not the application of complex formulas. The trouble started when people started thinking they could translate individual ability into generic formulas across the whole market.

Come to think of it, market psychology is important too, and since that is likely beyond the realms of science (and who knows may always be, at least to human levels of expertise), that aspect of human ability might as well be called an art.

[pmeswani]

What does the panel reckon then?

I think there's an evens chance we could see 5500 by year end.

No point predicting that far ahead. I think it will exceed 5200 by the end of the month. Not sure what type of betting you do, but I have dabbled on the spread betting market and have lost a small amount. Have only put in £200 in, and only have £20 left. It's a learning curve... and only have lost what I can afford to lose. I may put in more money once I am off the bench.... but let's see where the market is taking things.

[TimberWolf]

Where does musical ability come from? Or the ability to paint or draw?

You can teach most people to do these things to a reasonable level, but the real masters have a natural talent for it that can't, currently, be explained or replicated.

But that's more down to the fact that the human brain isn't smart enough to figure itself out yet. The brain beats modern computers for sure in things it's good at, such as image processing, and it would be interesting to speculate whether even the whole of humanity's computers combined are as good as say a gnats brain at image processing in real time (the speed of light would be a killer for a global network). How do you define musical or artistic ability anyway - it's meaningless.

[DaveB]

Where does individual ability come from? If such a thing exists, their brains must be doing some sort of science, surely. I don't subscribe to the view that the human brain operates outside of the realms of science.

Where does musical ability come from? Or the ability to paint or draw?

You can teach most people to do these things to a reasonable level, but the real masters have a natural talent for it that can't, currently, be explained or replicated.

[TimberWolf]

I think the problem is that there is no science involved outside of the formulas used to calculate individual trades. Market moves by +/-X, trade is worth +/-Y.

Being able to see trends or react to market movements is an art, not a science and is down to the abilities of individuals within their areas of expertise, not the application of complex formulas. The trouble started when people started thinking they could translate individual ability into generic formulas across the whole market.

Where does individual ability come from? If such a thing exists, their brains must be doing some sort of science, surely. I don't subscribe to the view that the human brain operates outside of the realms of science.

[DaveB]

Yeah, it probably broke down when the use of rocket scientists became common. Some people get insider information or can react faster or see trends that others don't see which can be an advantage until the day too many people start doing it. There's probably some science in that.

I think the problem is that there is no science involved outside of the formulas used to calculate individual trades. Market moves by +/-X, trade is worth +/-Y.

Being able to see trends or react to market movements is an art, not a science and is down to the abilities of individuals within their areas of expertise, not the application of complex formulas. The trouble started when people started thinking they could translate individual ability into generic formulas across the whole market.

[TimberWolf]

It's unpredictable by anyone. Thats part of the reason for the current problems. The Rocket Scientists in the banks thought they could predict the markets and create formula's to prdict and limit risk. The management belived them because they didnt understand them. Turned out they were wrong.

Yeah, it probably broke down when the use of rocket scientists became common. Some people get insider information or can react faster or see trends that others don't see which can be an advantage until the day too many people start doing it. There's probably some science in that.

[DaveB]

If it were possible to predict the stock market everyone could get rich by predicting it, which isn't possible. Ergo it's unpredictable, at least by the masses.

It's unpredictable by anyone. Thats part of the reason for the current problems. The Rocket Scientists in the banks thought they could predict the markets and create formula's to prdict and limit risk. The management belived them because they didnt understand them. Turned out they were wrong.

[Andy2]

I can predict it. If I buy it goes down. If I sell, it goes up. If I buy what I think will go down, then it goes down. If I buy what I think will go up, it goes down even more. Etc..........

it happens to me aswell

[Liability]

What does the panel reckon then?

I think there's an evens chance we could see 5500 by year end.

all depends on ket data out of the states over the next 10 weeks and also figures from here. I would suspect that we will start to be trickled with recovery information from politcal sources anyway - as we come up to xmas and the election. but its not totally impossible - but the basis of the value would be absurd

[Fred Bloggs]

If it were possible to predict the stock market everyone could get rich by predicting it, which isn't possible. Ergo it's unpredictable, at least by the masses.

I can predict it. If I buy it goes down. If I sell, it goes up. If I buy what I think will go down, then it goes down. If I buy what I think will go up, it goes down even more. Etc..........

[TimberWolf]

If it were possible to predict the stock market everyone could get rich by predicting it, which isn't possible. Ergo it's unpredictable, at least by the masses.

[Fred Bloggs]

Hyperinflation.

OK, 550000000000000 then?

[DocP]

Hmm

Hyperinflation.