Mini Budget aka Fiscal Statement

[SueEllen]

Interesting
https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/people/vie...inford-patrick

[darmstadt]

I've highlighted the problem:

The prime minister’s economics guru Professor Patrick Minford believes it would be “insane” to rip up the mini-budget.

He told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme: “It’s really important we don’t do something really stupid at this point.

“Liz Truss’s policies for growth are absolutely right and to be thrown off them by a bit of market turbulence is insane.”

He argued against U-turns, saying the Bank of England “needs to be much more active in its policies of intervention in the gilts market”.

Asked if he had predicted the market turmoil triggered by the mini-budget, the economist said: “Obviously, at the moment, the markets are facing enormous turbulence because of worldwide tightening of money, and so there’s a great deal of nervousness about.

“But I think the way to handle that is to deal with market turbulence in our gilts market directly through QE (quantitative easing) and then to keep the policies going.”

[_V_]

No, they were collapsing because the markets could see the massive black hole in the UK's fiscal position and the gov'ts willingess to hide it by failing to ask the OBR to report. It wasn't about any individual budget measure, it was about the aggregate measures, the briefing about doubling down later, and the willingness to avoid scrutiny or combine them with spending cuts.

^This.

The massive rise in Gilt yields occurred before any whiff of a U turn.

AtW is sad because he has to pay tax, his AMD stock (his pension) is failing, and he is buying into more property just as the property market is about to collapse.

[jamesbrown]

She will be gone anyway, why bother becoming PM in the first place?

It's too late to ponder that now. She should've pondered that before behaving like a moron.

I probably have similar views to you w/r to tax and spend - I am not a bloody leftie - but she has totally fooked up and misread pretty much everything and everyone. There was a reason that Dominic Cummings called her the human hand-grenade. After this debacle, social democracy is the only realistic possibility for the UK, whether you badge it Tory or Labour (and obviously Labour for the foreseeable future).

[AtW]

Sure it is. The outcome is that "Truss is gone". How you get there is for the Sunday papers, not that important.

She will be gone anyway, why bother becoming PM in the first place?

[jamesbrown]

No, it’s NOT the same outcome at all

Sure it is. The outcome is that "Truss is gone". How you get there is for the Sunday papers, not that important.

[AtW]

“George Osborne says another mini-Budget U-turn is inevitable

The former chancellor had already been critical of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s economic record”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rn-inevitable/

Slimey PoS forgot to mention that his own plans were 17% corp tax and he later used that reduction to increase dividend taxes

[jamesbrown]

It was already in place for 2024, she just brought it forward by a year max

Everything else “new” tax wise was small potatoes by value

Energy package also lower than originally expected and everybody is doing it in Europe anyway

Nonsense, the markets are not interpreting this for the year 2023-2024, they are looking at accumulated debt and the prospects for gdp in particular (debt / gdp) over the medium-term. The CT increases were also "in place" as were the NICs increases.

The energy package was vastly larger than anyone thought during the leadership contest.

I'm starting to wonder if you're actually paying attention.

[cojak]

Ho hum. Nobody could see this coming, could they?

Personally, I think that this whole thing is going to end up being a massive tulipshow of a flaming car crash bouncing off a children’s marching band, rolling down a hill though a garage forecourt and ending in a petting zoo….

The budget as a whole, I can’t see the IR35 bit sticking because of the bonfire that the budget is going to generate - no growth, NHS turning private and the UK turning into another Greece.

[AtW]

It's the same outcome either way.

No, it’s NOT the same outcome at all