DOOM: "Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK"

[OwlHoot]

Yes, it's more complicated than just antibodies but the fact is that people are catching it twice, and catching it after being double jabbed - but in general doing better than they would be if they didn't have some immunity.

Also, let's not forget the medical advances aren't just about vaccines. There has also been development of drugs to ameliorate Covid symptoms.

[AtW]

It seems to me that they are not very good at forecasting covid epidemiology (e.g., look at the history of the Imperial model, among many others). Creating vaccines, otoh.

Change in behavior changes models - 146k dead so far from Covid and Imperial said 500k (without any changes in behavior at the time when no vaccines were available), if anything Imperial was on a low end.

[jamesbrown]

I would worry less about whether scientists have an agenda and more about whether they are producing something useful (and I say that as a scientist myself). It seems to me that they are not very good at forecasting covid epidemiology (e.g., look at the history of the Imperial model, among many others). Creating vaccines, otoh.

[AtW]

"Omicron could cause 75,000 deaths in England by end of April, say scientists

Omicron could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months without tougher Covid restrictions, experts have told the government.

Scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) also warned that Omicron, first discovered in southern Africa, is likely to be the dominant coronavirus variant by the end of the month.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, projected infections could lead to a peak of more than 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with a total of 175,000 hospital admissions and 24,700 deaths between 1 December and 30 April."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...say-scientists

[AtW]

The fact remain that any parasite or pathogen has a better chance of survival if it doesn't kill its host.

“99% of transmission occurs before anybody even gets to hospital,” the severity of disease is “a very minor selection pressure”.

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This

[malvolio]

The hospitalisation rate clearly refers to the rate of the infected, not the general population.
I am not arguing against the possibility that Omicron is milder - it could be, it looks like it might well be, and I hope it is - just against the statement that this is an inevitable evolutionary path for any virus, which is a thesis not supported by any evidence.

At least, none that you are prepared to accept or understand. I'm talking general evolution, not mutation within a single strain of a virus, which is a specific case. I could go into viral mutation process and where viruses originated in the first place, wander off into transmissible inheritance in viruses and bacteria in general or all sorts of other blind alleys that are more about biochemistry or the underlying science(s) of killing bugs without killing hosts but I may just resist that temptation.

The fact remain that any parasite or pathogen has a better chance of survival if it doesn't kill its host.

[mattster]

Hospitalisation rates in the UK are currently 6.4 per 100,000. That's 0.0064%, rather less than the above "even if Omicron causes a less severe hospitalisation rate of 1% or 0.5% compared with Delta’s 1.5%, " and the bulk of those are for unvaccinated patients. So why trust the rest of the article?

Scientists have agendas too, you know.

As for the evolutionary pressure thesis, it's neither the Darwin/Wallace speciation mechanism nor Lamarck's deterministic one but the rather more recent studies on how evolution works and the speed at which Darwin's "beneficial mutations" operate in a real world population. Facebook is oddly quiet on that subject sadly, so I had to go and read some published (and peer reviewed) papers. It's what happens when you have a life-long interest in the subject. But agsint ignoraance, the Gods themselves strive in vain.

The hospitalisation rate clearly refers to the rate of the infected, not the general population.
I am not arguing against the possibility that Omicron is milder - it could be, it looks like it might well be, and I hope it is - just against the statement that this is an inevitable evolutionary path for any virus, which is a thesis not supported by any evidence.

[AtW]

Or, equally, the continuation of funding for their research establishments or academic posts, which means getting your name out there as well as getting papers in peer-reviewed journals..

Yes (and why should not science be funded?), and when they get things wrong it fecks up their careers pretty badly, something we can't say about scumbag politicians who lie all the time without any real consequences.

[malvolio]

Yes - the pursuit of truth, which is the essense of science that should be validable/verifiable.

Much better bias than just wanting to get re-elected or stay as a Minister.

Or, equally, the continuation of funding for their research establishments or academic posts, which means getting your name out there as well as getting papers in peer-reviewed journals..

One problem is that scientists work in isolation and are focussed on their own little speciality. Governments have to weigh up rather more factors when making decisions on behalf of the country. All those U turns by the current bunch probably show that they're not very good at it, but it does not mean the scientists proposed solutions are correct.

[AtW]

Scientists have agendas too, you know.

Yes - the pursuit of truth, which is the essense of science that should be validable/verifiable.

Much better bias than just wanting to get re-elected or stay as a Minister.