DOOM: "Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK"

[mattster]

Mild version incoming -

Let's hope so, we are in a real pickle if it isn't.

What is "mild" anyway? I've known plenty of people with covid now, quite a few quite badly affected - the phrase "worst week of my life" was used by more than one. All "mild", medically - no hospitalisation or significant medical intervention. The rate Omicron is growing could see nearly half the population infected within 2 weeks, which should make for a pleasant Christmas.

[AtW]

Mild version incoming -

""Health Secretary Sajid Javid begins his statement by telling MPs that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.

He says Omicron will become the dominant variant in London in the next 48 hours and represents 20% of cases in England.

Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59632655

[mattster]

As an individual you are very likely to be fine. But Let's say it's 50% as dangerous but infects 10X as many... this is essentially what projections are showing which has the NHS terrified. Remember right at the start, the narrative was about smoothing/flattening the curve so we don't get all the cases at the same time. If you get seriously ill with Covid, your chances of survival are much lower if you can't get into hospital.

Yep. Government is clearly absolutely terrified of this one and I dare say rightly so. It's not just covid care that goes if the NHS is overwhelmed, either, so the knock on effects could be unpleasant. The reality is that we are probably in needing a full lockdown territory, but I don't think they've got the guts to do it - and have no idea what compliance would be like anyway.

[AtW]

""More details emerge on 10 Omicron cases in English hospitals

As we heard earlier, 10 people have been hospitalised with the Omicron variant in England.

Now, the UK Health Security Agency has provided some more detail on those cases.

They are aged 18 to 85 and are in hospitals around the country where they were diagnosed with Omicron on or before admission, it says.

The majority had received two doses of Covid vaccination, the UKHSA says, and - as we've been reporting - one person has died."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59632655

[SueEllen]

As an individual you are very likely to be fine. But Let's say it's 50% as dangerous but infects 10X as many... this is essentially what projections are showing which has the NHS terrified. Remember right at the start, the narrative was about smoothing/flattening the curve so we don't get all the cases at the same time. If you get seriously ill with Covid, your chances of survival are much lower if you can't get into hospital.

Do we have any healthcare and social care workers left?

I thought there were loads of bed blockers as social care workers have gone off to work in Amazon warehouses so they can actual earn a living wage.

And healthcare with workers have retired, gone/going back home or are working out how to emigrate.

[d000hg]

I've been pretty sanguine about Omicron, probably because I have at least somewhat bought the narrative that it is going to be much milder than Delta. If it turns out that it isn't, things are about to get pretty serious fast. This thing is doubling in less than 2 days under current restrictions in a mostly vaccinated population, which is nuts.

As an individual you are very likely to be fine. But Let's say it's 50% as dangerous but infects 10X as many... this is essentially what projections are showing which has the NHS terrified. Remember right at the start, the narrative was about smoothing/flattening the curve so we don't get all the cases at the same time. If you get seriously ill with Covid, your chances of survival are much lower if you can't get into hospital.

[AtW]

We are in for a bad time for sure - the fact that is spreads so quickly (much quicker than Alpha and even Delta) and pretty much fact that it evades vaccines to a large degree (which helps explain high spread), then things will go bad very quickly.

I don't buy that it's "milder", this isn't Bank's.

[jamesbrown]

I've been pretty sanguine about Omicron, probably because I have at least somewhat bought the narrative that it is going to be much milder than Delta. If it turns out that it isn't, things are about to get pretty serious fast. This thing is doubling in less than 2 days under current restrictions in a mostly vaccinated population, which is nuts.

Even if it's milder, it's going to be a big deal if the early indications of R are correct. It's a numbers game. A lower [insert bad thing here] rate multiplied by a larger infected population means bad news for the NHS, even if the risk to you as an individual (that has caught Omicron vs. Delta or Alpha) is smaller.

[mattster]

I've been pretty sanguine about Omicron, probably because I have at least somewhat bought the narrative that it is going to be much milder than Delta. If it turns out that it isn't, things are about to get pretty serious fast. This thing is doubling in less than 2 days under current restrictions in a mostly vaccinated population, which is nuts.

[AtW]

"Covid: First UK death recorded with Omicron variant

At least one person in the UK has died with the Omicron coronavirus variant, the prime minister has said.

Boris Johnson said the new variant was also resulting in hospital admissions and the "best thing" people could do was get their booster jab.

Visiting a vaccination clinic in London, he said people should set aside the idea Omicron was a milder variant.

Speaking during a visit near Paddington, west London, Mr Johnson said: "Sadly yes, Omicron is producing hospitalisations and sadly at least one patient has been confirmed to have died with Omicron.

"So I think the idea that this is somehow a milder version of the virus, I think that's something we need to set on one side and just recognise the sheer pace at which it accelerates through the population."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59639007