House market - how low will it go?

[DodgyAccountant]

BTL purchases will tank. I believe they were about 10% of sales.

No prospect of capital appreciation - the opposite
Fallling rents
Increasing rent arrears - no evictions allowed
More tenant protection (prospect of the removal of S21)
Extra tax (stamp duty and interest non deductable)

Some BTL investors will sell up increasing supply.

My guess is increasing interest rates - we are at the end of a 40 year reduction in interest rates. The Fed is doing everything to try to keep bond yields low - but the market will prevail.

[BrilloPad]

If they haven't already fallen down prior

These days, no new builds can be bought freehold. They are leasehold with ground rents that double every few years...

[BrilloPad]

BTL purchases will tank. I believe they were about 10% of sales.

No prospect of capital appreciation - the opposite
Fallling rents
Increasing rent arrears - no evictions allowed
More tenant protection (prospect of the removal of S21)
Extra tax (stamp duty and interest non deductable)

Some BTL investors will sell up increasing supply.

My guess is increasing interest rates - we are at the end of a 40 year reduction in interest rates. The Fed is doing everything to try to keep bond yields low - but the market will prevail.

Add in lots of old people dying....

[northernladuk]

Because in 2023/4 the fixed rate will be coming to an end and a lot of people may not have the correct amount of equity if prices are lower to remortgage.

Gotcha, but what are the options. Wouldn't this be the same for whatever product you are on, not just the 5 year fixed people? Are you saying the people on more flexible products will be able to manage this event as it unfolds rather than being tied in?

[MrMarkyMark]

These days, no new builds can be bought freehold. They are leasehold with ground rents that double every few years...

Yeh, I know, so if they fall down you will be left with zilch.

Luckily we live in a flat with a shared freehold, my Mrs bought it out just a few years ago.

I always joked that we should torch the place as the land is worth far more collectively than the art deco flat blocks currently on it, as it has shared car park, garden etc.

[WTFH]

There may be other changes in the housing market as a result of the pandemic:

1. Those who have wanted town/city living looking to move to more rural/isolated areas
2. Desire for bigger gardens to become more self-sufficient
3. Companies realising working from home can work, thus they don't need massive corporate offices or expect staff/contractors to be located near them.

[northernladuk]

BTL purchases will tank. I believe they were about 10% of sales.

No prospect of capital appreciation - the opposite
Fallling rents
Increasing rent arrears - no evictions allowed
More tenant protection (prospect of the removal of S21)
Extra tax (stamp duty and interest non deductable)

Some BTL investors will sell up increasing supply.

My guess is increasing interest rates - we are at the end of a 40 year reduction in interest rates. The Fed is doing everything to try to keep bond yields low - but the market will prevail.

Even still, immigration will far outstrip demand year on year for a long time yet.

[TheGreenBastard]

Can't see much down pressure, I'm calling a very brief 5-10% dip; pent up demand that existed in 2019 will still exist the tail end of 2020 and beyond.

QE in the current climate will simply increase asset prices, it won't go towards inflation because disposable income is going nowhere but down with the current measures of wage subsidies.

Interest rates remain and will remain zero/encroaching towards zero.

Last but not least; banks will be forced to liberalise lending by the gov - the very fabric of UK economics and all other nations depends on some real estate inflation, property values will be the least of the common man's concern if they drop 40-90%. I actually predict some very special government measures.

At least we're all in it together: 10 years House Price Change in Europe

[MrMarkyMark]

Even still, immigration will far outstrip demand year on year for a long time yet.

Not too sure about that actually

[northernladuk]

Not too sure about that actually

Decades of missed targets and namby pambying around this topic makes me think it won't get sorted for quite awhile yet so I can't see much changing in the mid term future. IMO of course.