House market - how low will it go?

[BrilloPad]

I'm calling a 40% crash.

As little as that? I was hoping for 90%....

[scooterscot]

I reckon the collapse in house prices will be long and drawn out over the next few years starting in the next 3-6 months. I think we're entering our 2nd ever depression in history. Which would put the bottom of the market equivalent to the bottom of the stock market. 40% seems right, but if the stock market drops another 30% - panic.
"
Do we think the UK will continue to pursue self inflicted economic sanctions at the year's end with everything that's gong on? If so, I'd put a collapse in price closer to 60-70%. By 2023/4 you're going to be sweating bricks at that fixed rate mortgage you took out in 2020.

[northernladuk]

I reckon the collapse in house prices will be long and drawn out over the next few years starting in the next 3-6 months. I think we're entering our 2nd ever depression in history. Which would put the bottom of the market equivalent to the bottom of the stock market. 40% seems right, but if the stock market drops another 30% - panic.
"
Do we think the UK will continue to pursue self inflicted economic sanctions at the year's end with everything that's gong on? If so, I'd put a collapse in price closer to 60-70%. By 2023/4 you're going to be sweating bricks at that fixed rate mortgage you took out in 2020.

When it drops by only 20% in 7 years you can re-post this saying you called it.

That aside I must admit I do have to agree somewhat. Maybe not the figures you are quoting but most defiantly going to be a painful period.

Why do you think people will be sweating bricks about fixed rate mortgages though?

[eek]

When it drops by only 20% in 7 years you can re-post this saying you called it.

That aside I must admit I do have to agree somewhat. Maybe not the figures you are quoting but most defiantly going to be a painful period.

Why do you think people will be sweating bricks about fixed rate mortgages though?

Because in 2023/4 the fixed rate will be coming to an end and a lot of people may not have the correct amount of equity if prices are lower to remortgage.

[DodgyAccountant]

Help To Buy 5 yr interest rate holidays will be expiring over the next couple of years.

New build houses bought with them will be in negative equity.

[scooterscot]

Not only that but a ton of folks increasingly moved to fixed rate products over the past few years - it is public record. This will create an event around 2023 (Watch the big short!) as they mature and folks will find themselves looking to borrow in a market where no one is lending on anything less than 40% LTV after a crash in prices. It is a nightmare scenario.

As of September 9th 2019, the number of mortgage sales (PSD) in the United Kingdom (UK) stood at just under 570 thousand for the year. As it stands, full year accounting of mortgage sales in 2019 is likely to be far below than that of the previous year. Of these, the vast majority were taken out with fixed interest rates. To see the up-to-date average interest rates in the UK, click here.

• Total number of mortgage sales in the UK by interest rate 2019 | Statista

[MrMarkyMark]

Help To Buy 5 yr interest rate holidays will be expiring over the next couple of years.

New build houses bought with them will be in negative equity.

If they haven't already fallen down prior

[AtW]

The only real estate that will sell well will be the one with a designated ventilator.

[scooterscot]

Help To Buy 5 yr interest rate holidays will be expiring over the next couple of years.

New build houses bought with them will be in negative equity.

Tories will get no votes from the young after that chicken comes home to roost. A group of people that struggled to borrow in the height of the credit boom surely will be shafted when the credit tightens. New builds were a favoured mostly be first time buyers. Built on a flood plain was the cherry on the cake.

[BrilloPad]

Because in 2023/4 the fixed rate will be coming to an end and a lot of people may not have the correct amount of equity if prices are lower to remortgage.

Which is why house prices should stay the same. And incomes increase dramatically....