stock market crash

[ChimpMaster]

Who doesn't remember this corker a few weeks ago re. BP. I was expecting the Queen's national address tonight to have confirmed BP's imminent nationalisation but I was sadly disappointed. "Look at their books, their assets & liabilities are on par"

https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ml#post2744733

"By the one with the printing press.

Look at their books, their assets & liabilities are on par, oil is heading to <$10 a barrel - there's a reason why that stock is dumping harder than most. BP like like a number of other FTSE 100 companies will not exist this time next year unless the government buys them out. They gave two fingers to Flybe... who's next?


BP p.l.c. (BP) Balance Sheet - Yahoo Finance

FFS Scoots, that's an accounting method. Look at any company (MSFT, Saleforce, Ford whatever) and you'll see the balance sheet assets and liabilities are always "on par" … that's why it is called a 'balance' sheet.

[scooterscot]

I pity you. You really don't see it do you? Do you think you're the Chosen One? Or do you think the ultra-bear sites you read are specially prescient, more so than other investors around the world? Stop trying to prove to yourself that your money is in the only boat that will stay float in this storm. There is a storm, and it's horrendous, but the reality is that humanity has been through far worse in the past and we're much better prepared to fight the battles now.

My mum said I was.

Yes, I do believe in myself. I practice making regular affirmations. If I'm wrong there's no one to blame but myself.

[Whorty]

FFS Scoots, that's an accounting method. Look at any company (MSFT, Saleforce, Ford whatever) and you'll see the balance sheet assets and liabilities are always "on par" … that's why it is called a 'balance' sheet.

Scary isn't it. And yet he keeps pushing that he is an expert and should be listened to.

[scooterscot]

But at least you have finally admitted that you are betting your future on people losing their jobs and houses - with that their lives. A fatal flaw in your mentality now proven. There are people on this forum going through the pain of job loss and financial struggle, right now. Let that sink in for a moment.

Fantastic, that means I'm gonna get paid!

I don't care about the consequences - let that sink in for a moment. If you're trading on emotions, you're going to lose 100% of the time.

Does that mean I don't have empathy for those in difficult times? Of course not. But lets no kid ourselves, we're coming to the end of debt cycle and many many people chose to borrow borrow & borrow. That right of entitlement combined with the ease of credit is what got us into this mess.

[scooterscot]

Scary isn't it. And yet he keeps pushing that he is an expert and should be listened to.

Where did I say that?

[jamesbrown]

Fantastic, that means I'm gonna get paid!

You are certainly weapons-grade, scootie. Congrats on that, at least.

[scooterscot]

The month of April is going to make March look like a bump in the road. We're going to see job losses accelerate, incomes tumble, more volatility in the stock markets, companies going bankrupt. I stand by a total 70-80% dip in the stock market from recent highs before it bottom's with no recovery until 2022 at the earliest. The 30% dip already was nothing compared to what's to come..

Here it starts:

Coronavirus: New car registrations may drop more than 40%

Coronavirus: 'Under 25s and women financially worst hit'

Three ways to save the UK economy

It has become increasingly clear that businesses are unwilling or unable to take on additional debt during what threatens to be the gravest economic crisis since the 1930s.


The government has moved quickly to introduce and then overhaul measures to supply hundreds of billions of pounds in credit to the UK economy.


However, its not supply that's the problem. It's demand - in two very important and different respects.


First, customer demand.


Apart from groceries, no-one is really buying anything. Yes, you can get deliveries of make-up, compost, and thousands of other products from various online marketplaces, but demand for what the UK service-based economy produces has collapsed.


Many shops, restaurants, bars, hairdressers, pet stores, garden centres are facing imminent ruin.

Second, demand for credit.


Given the above, why would any business put itself further in debt when there is zero clarity on when business may return to normal?


Yes, the government has ordered banks to remove the requirement for business owners to provide personal guarantees for loans up to £250,000.


For loans over that amount, they have also told banks they cannot ask for guarantees in excess of the 20% of the loan (given the government is guaranteeing the other 80% it would be a scandal if banks tried to do this, frankly).

[rogerfederer]

ChimpMaster: I agree that Scootsy may be lacking in certain areas of business knowledge, but I do think that he is correct regarding this outcome.

Time at home causes reflection - a good thing - that means people won't be keen to load up on even more personal debt when all this is over in a few months. A new car purchase using disposable income (I hate this term!) is definitely not going to be a good idea for most and more people than ever will realise this.

If this was Germany then small to medium enterprises wouldn't be as loaded up on cheap debt but in the UK the state of businesses overall is not good. They've gorged on cheap debt.

Had businesses and people not taken this debt to the highest ratio to GDP ever seen then I'd be less concerned.

Ultimately debt was at such high unsustainable levels during the 'good times' - which didn't exist, the 'good times' were imaginary and yet again built on debt, therefore an illusion - that recovering from this is going to be much harder as a result. The only option for many businesses under a free market is to go bust and for many businesses deservedly so.

[Zigenare]

Scary isn't it. And yet he keeps pushing that he is an expert and should be listened to.

No fear of that with you, eh pal?

[Whorty]

No fear of that with you, eh pal?

I am an expert in my field, and in that field I expect to be listened to. I charge for this advice; I certainly wouldn't be giving it away free on a forum