stock market crash

[Whorty]

Not cock sure (whatever that means), I use the term probable. And the probability is high.

Cocksure

adjective
confident in an excessive or arrogant way.

Go on then ..... if the probability is 'high', what value do you assign to it? How 'confident' are you on the probability?

[scooterscot]

I'm 82.3% certain we're not swinging out of this bear market with a v-shaped style recovery like Chimpfaster seems to think.

Coronavirus: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

The coronavirus pandemic will turn global economic growth "sharply negative" this year, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.


Kristalina Georgieva said the world faced the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.


She forecast that 2021 would only see a partial recovery.


Lockdowns imposed by governments have forced many companies to close and lay off staff.


Earlier this week, a UN study said 81% of the world's workforce of 3.3 billion people had had their place of work fully or partly closed because of the outbreak.


Four out of five jobs affected by virus globally
Coronavirus: A visual guide to the economic impact
Global economy will suffer for 'years to come'
Ms Georgieva, the IMF's managing director, made her bleak assessment in remarks ahead of next week's IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings.


Emerging markets and developing countries would be the hardest hit, she said, requiring hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign aid.


"Just three months ago, we expected positive per capita income growth in over 160 of our member countries in 2020," she said.


"Today, that number has been turned on its head: we now project that over 170 countries will experience negative per capita income growth this year."


She added: "In fact, we anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression."

[d000hg]

It was patently obvious this was going to be a massive recession several weeks ago. Nobody even pretended otherwise (in the UK I mean, Trump was in lala land).

It will be interesting if the market tumbles on the forecasts we're in for a 13% drop, or if it has already priced that in.

US news seemed to be slightly better though I am not convinced they still have taken it seriously enough. 60k deaths from 350m citizens is far better than our projections and they were much later to the party in terms of doing much.

[scooterscot]

US news seemed to be slightly better though I am not convinced they still have taken it seriously enough. 60k deaths from 350m citizens is far better than our projections and they were much later to the party in terms of doing much.

They'll have 60k deaths in New-York alone, never mind the larger country. Economy will be open for Easter, Trump said so. When populists keep falling over their own rhetoric yet people keep voting for whatever comes out of his spout - What's that called? where's the limit? Where's the point they go, hang on, this guy is a £$%?


Coronavirus: New York using mass graves amid outbreak

Images have emerged of coffins being buried in a mass grave in New York City, as the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak continues to rise.


Workers in hazmat outfits were seen using a ladder to descend into a huge pit where the coffins were stacked.


The location is Hart Island, used for New Yorkers with no next of kin or who could not afford a funeral.


New York state now has more coronavirus cases than any single country, according to latest figures.


The state's confirmed caseload of Covid-19 jumped by 10,000 on Thursday to 159,937, of whom 7,000 have died.


Spain has had 153,000 cases and Italy 143,000, while China, where the virus emerged last year, has reported 82,000 cases.


The US as a whole has recorded 462,000 cases and nearly 16,500 deaths. Globally there are 1.6 million cases and 95,000 deaths.

[Whorty]

It was patently obvious this was going to be a massive recession several weeks ago. Nobody even pretended otherwise (in the UK I mean, Trump was in lala land).

It will be interesting if the market tumbles on the forecasts we're in for a 13% drop, or if it has already priced that in.

Scooty doesn't seem to understand this ... somehow he figures he's the only person who sees what's going on and therefore he's ahead of the curve. The markets are priced based on all the publicly available knowledge, and a lot more information that is not yet public (allegedly ). I'd like to think he'd learn this one day, but I fear he's so stuck in his own little world of graphs that this will continue to pass him by.

As a slight aside, I do like to read out Scooty's posts to my wife; she's currently a pensions expert but she's also worked as a wealth manager in the past (she used to work in a team that advised lottery winners - she couldn't tell me any details unfortunately ). She p1sses herself at some of the stuff he comes out with - it cheers her up no end

[Whorty]

They'll have 60k deaths in New-York alone, never mind the larger country. Economy will be open for Easter, Trump said so. When populists keep falling over their own rhetoric yet people keep voting for whatever comes out of his spout - What's that called? where's the limit? Where's the point they go, hang on, this guy is a £$%?

Coronavirus: New York using mass graves amid outbreak

You failed to quote the important information from the story, thus creating a different narrative that fits your view.

The drone footage comes from Hart Island, off the Bronx in Long Island Sound, which has been used for more than 150 years by city officials as a mass burial site for those with no next-of-kin, or families who cannot afford funerals.

It is probable that many of the coffins are for coronavirus victims, but it is not clear whether they fall into the above categories.

It's not a new mass grave site due to coronavirus but a location that has been used to bury the poor for 150 years. There is also no evidence that those being buried here all died of the virus. We also don't know if the burial teams routinely where hazmat suits when carrying out this work, or if this is specifically due to the virus.

[scooterscot]

Scooty doesn't seem to understand this ... somehow he figures he's the only person who sees what's going on and therefore he's ahead of the curve. The markets are priced based on all the publicly available knowledge, and a lot more information that is not yet public (allegedly ). I'd like to think he'd learn this one day, but I fear he's so stuck in his own little world of graphs that this will continue to pass him by.

As a slight aside, I do like to read out Scooty's posts to my wife; she's currently a pensions expert but she's also worked as a wealth manager in the past (she used to work in a team that advised lottery winners - she couldn't tell me any details unfortunately ). She p1sses herself at some of the stuff he comes out with - it cheers her up no end

Never knew I had an audience that extends beyond cUK!

You think the depression is already priced in? Cute...

hate to sound like a broken record, but I am ahead of the curve. Remember I bought BTC in late 2016 for a snatch, which has gained more than gold up until the present day, I off loaded my shares & property last year - If that's not ahead of the curve I don't know what is.


Deflation is in the post, massive drop in food prices, partially dairy, are incoming.. remember I said that now.

[scooterscot]

It's not a new mass grave site due to coronavirus but a location that has been used to bury the poor for 150 years. There is also no evidence that those being buried here all died of the virus. We also don't know if the burial teams routinely where hazmat suits when carrying out this work, or if this is specifically due to the virus.

I remember a few weeks ago you were saying the media is hyping the disease news. Now we're all locked down. Keep digging (pardon the pun)... everyone is watching.

[DimPrawn]

https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/61240...t%20bounce.pdf

Personally I'm taking profits from the recent bounce. DYOR.

[scooterscot]

Pains me to say it..... smart man.