London Not Ready for Driverless Cars Before 2030s

[Martin@AS Financial]

Interesting article from Bloomberg:

London is ill-prepared to become an early adopter of cutting-edge transport technology including driverless cars and retail deliveries by drone, according to the city’s lawmakers.

While the U.K. government has predicted that connected and autonomous vehicles, or CAVs, will be on Britain’s roads by 2021, infrastructure and connectivity issues mean London is unlikely to see them until a decade later, the London Assembly’s transport committee said in a study released Tuesday.

“There is much hype around CAVs becoming a feature of our roads in the imminent future,” according to the report. “This is not likely to be the case, with 2030 to 2040 more realistic for widespread rollout.”

The level of congestion in London also means driverless cars would risk bringing the city to a standstill in the event of a very high takeup, it says, recommending that Mayor Sadiq Khan begin a sustained campaign to make car-sharing the norm before they’re introduced.

The report provides a generally bleak assessment of London’s readiness for a range of transport technologies:

- Autonomous buses may be preferable to driverless cars but would entail thousands of job losses as drivers are eliminated

- Safety and performance issues mean delivery drones are unlikely to remove a significant amount of freight from roads; probably only suitable for “last mile” of delivery chain

- Ground-based “droids” or delivery robots would lead to further crowding of sidewalks already obstructed by street furniture and parked vehicles

- Uber Technologies Inc.’s troubled history in London, including legal challenges and contribution to congestion, shows risks of under-preparation for disruptive technologies

- App-based dockless-bicycle program oBike had to withdraw from London after customers left its machines blocking walkways and streets. Concept has huge potential but will need licensing

- Demand-responsive buses that can be hailed via an app and operate to constantly varying routes and timetables could fill gaps in network

[NickFitz]

London always has some ongoing struggle with transportation: The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894

In 1900, there were over 11,000 hansom cabs on the streets of London alone. There were also several thousand horse-drawn buses, each needing 12 horses per day, making a staggering total of over 50,000 horses transporting people around the city each day.

To add to this, there were yet more horse-drawn carts and drays delivering goods around what was then the largest city in the world.

This huge number of horses created major problems. The main concern was the large amount of manure left behind on the streets. On average a horse will produce between 15 and 35 pounds of manure per day, so you can imagine the sheer scale of the problem.

[BoredBloke]

The tube has been able to have driverless trains for years but the unions won't allow it. The same will happen with driverless busses

[WTFH]

London always has some ongoing struggle with transportation: The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894

Should have done like they do in Bruges (It's a ******** fairy tale)

[DaveB]

Should have done like they do in Bruges (It's a ******** fairy tale)

But you still need a way to dispose of it.

[sal]

Autonomous buses may be preferable to driverless cars but would entail thousands of job losses as drivers are eliminated

They couldn't get rid of the "driver" on the DLR that was designed to be autonomous, on a rail, above the ground, completely isolated from other traffic.

So I wouldn't hold my breath for driverless buses.

[OwlHoot]

London always has some ongoing struggle with transportation: The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894

I think this was one reason Joseph Bazalgette designed and built the London sewers with such overcapacity in the 19th century.

Also, I believe there was a plan towards the end of the 19th century to build a separate giant horse manure sewer.

(Apologies if the article you linked actually mentions that - No time to check it at the moment.)

[Hobosapien]

They've got the cart before the horse.

To get driverless vehicles accepted they need to find other activities that the people would rather do than drive vehicles. Then the unions and those fighting for wage slavery can turn their attention to something else.

e.g. The companies that stand to make billions by being first to market offering driverless vehicles just need to pay the current drivers a redundancy package that includes training them into maintenance of the driverless vehicles.

Anyway, forget about London, it's full of self important s. The driverless movement needs to start with heavy goods vehicles and trucks. Would solve a lot of problems relatively easily and start the momentum needed for wider acceptance once the tech is proven. Tesla are working on driverless trucks aren't they? The future will happen anyway, waste of effort trying to fight it.

[sal]

e.g. The companies that stand to make billions by being first to market offering driverless vehicles just need to pay the current drivers a redundancy package that includes training them into maintenance of the driverless vehicles.

Won't work, today's unions are far more concerned about preserving their power, over the well-being of their members.

[original PM]

Well - no one can stop them not replacing drivers who retire with driverless busses

No need to employee new people

Surely the unions cannot do anything about that??

(they probably can though I guess)