EU and trade agreements

[northernladyuk]

Of course, post Brexit, Britain will be subject to harsh import/export tariffs to the EU, we all know this, we have read the Independent and the Guardian.

So what about Iran, how do they fair trading with the EU?

Iran - Trade - European Commission

Wow, can't be easy for, say France to setup it's car manufacturing there, what with them being on UN sanctions list. Hell, they are not even WTO members.

Renault agrees to step up car production in Iran - BBC News

So would you be content for car parts crossing between the UK and EU to be subject to the same arrangements as those crossing between Iran and the EU?

[PurpleGorilla]

EU and trade agreements

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/838...-deficit-video

It's all good according to the express anyway.


[emoji19]

Somewhat overstating the position, however it is true that the UK is not insignificant in terms of EU trade.

[vetran]

Somewhat overstating the position, however it is true that the UK is not insignificant in terms of EU trade.

that's the trick use pictures!

[PurpleGorilla]

that's the trick use pictures!

Always useful to look at the figures behind this...

[WTFH]

So the UK exports £213,981 million to the EU and the UK imports £290,961 million from the EU from the table above.
Also in that table are the % of the GDP.
11.45% of the GDP of the UK makes up that £214 billion
3.13% of the GDP of the EU makes up the £291 billion.

So, if the UK does not get a good trade deal with the EU, then the EU potentially loses 3.13% of it's GDP. That's quite a lot. But if the UK does not get a good trade deal with the EU, then the UK potentially loses 11.45% of it's GDP.

Who suffers more? The one who loses a potential 3.13% or the one who loses a potential 11.45%?

*note that I have used the same currency throughout, but the exchange rate for EUR to GBP in the table above is 1.3777, so the figures must be from some time ago.

[PurpleGorilla]

So the UK exports £213,981 million to the EU and the UK imports £290,961 million from the EU from the table above.
Also in that table are the % of the GDP.
11.45% of the GDP of the UK makes up that £214 billion
3.13% of the GDP of the EU makes up the £291 billion.

So, if the UK does not get a good trade deal with the EU, then the EU potentially loses 3.13% of it's GDP. That's quite a lot. But if the UK does not get a good trade deal with the EU, then the UK potentially loses 11.45% of it's GDP.

Who suffers more? The one who loses a potential 3.13% or the one who loses a potential 11.45%?

*note that I have used the same currency throughout, but the exchange rate for EUR to GBP in the table above is 1.3777, so the figures must be from some time ago.

I remember reading the pessimistic projection in the EU published economic impact analysis suggested at hit of 7% to the UK. Can't remember what it was for the EU, less than 1% I think.

But, some EU countries trade more with the UK than others. For example, the Irish Central Banker recently projected a -3% GDP impact through hard brexit for Ireland.

[northernladyuk]

I remember reading the pessimistic projection in the EU published economic impact analysis suggested at hit of 7% to the UK. Can't remember what it was for the EU, less than 1% I think.

But, some EU countries trade more with the UK than others. For example, the Irish Central Banker recently projected a -3% GDP impact through hard brexit for Ireland.

Yes - looking tough for Ireland. Some jobs will be picked up in finance, creative media and perhaps pharma / medical devices, but won't be enough to offset the damage. Doesn't help that the UK government position is to leave the customs union and single market.

[PurpleGorilla]

EU and trade agreements

Yes - looking tough for Ireland. Some jobs will be picked up in finance, creative media and perhaps pharma / medical devices, but won't be enough to offset the damage. Doesn't help that the UK government position is to leave the customs union and single market.

I don't think we will be leaving either (the single market or the customs union).

[PurpleGorilla]

I remember reading the pessimistic projection in the EU published economic impact analysis suggested at hit of 7% to the UK. Can't remember what it was for the EU, less than 1% I think.

But, some EU countries trade more with the UK than others. For example, the Irish Central Banker recently projected a -3% GDP impact through hard brexit for Ireland.

Here is that report.

https://www.ceps.eu/system/files/IMC...ublication.pdf

[WTFH]

I don't think we will be leaving either (the single market or the customs union).

So it won't be the hard brexit that has been promised.

What parts of EU policy do you think (not hope) we will end up leaving?