Reply to: EU and trade agreements

[Paddy]

The trade agreement would be great for all of us and what about the other points?

The import tax of sardines?

[Bee]

The trade agreement would be great for all of us and what about the other points?

[BlasterBates]

Brexit SABOTAGE: Is Britain about to move in direction of Norway-style deal with EU?

now Brexiteers Liam Fox and Michael Gove are also thought to be on board with the watered down agreement as they buckle under the pressure from Remain-backing Tory MPs like Philip Hammond who have called for a Brexit transitional period.

[WTFH]

By I'm not sure what the UK wants, and I'm not sure there is even a unified cabinet position on this.

This is a big part of the problem, and means the negotiations might not be effective, particularly if the EU side knows that the UK is unsure what it wants and the cabinet aren't agreed either (And I strongly suspect that if the EU didn't know before negotiations started, they will have realised it within a few minutes of it starting)

[PurpleGorilla]

EU and trade agreements

So it won't be the hard brexit that has been promised.

What parts of EU policy do you think (not hope) we will end up leaving?

I think hardbrexit is unlikely. A soft brexit seems deliverable within HM government and within the EU. Falling out onto WTO is possible, but I would imagine an emergency general election/UK referendum would be held before it/just after it.

I'm not sure what we will end up leaving, Norway opts into other things because it wants to. By I'm not sure what the UK wants, and I'm not sure there is even a unified cabinet position on this.

[BlasterBates]

Excellent article from Mathew Parris

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/07/...-your-mistake/

It's now becoming clear as the "transitional deal" gains momentum that this will be a huge defeat for the Brexiteers as it will mean being a sh*tty member, so their only hope is to make a mess of the negotiations and crash out of the EU.

I reckon the chances of the government being brought down are increasing by the day.

[WTFH]

I don't think we will be leaving either (the single market or the customs union).

So it won't be the hard brexit that has been promised.

What parts of EU policy do you think (not hope) we will end up leaving?

[PurpleGorilla]

I remember reading the pessimistic projection in the EU published economic impact analysis suggested at hit of 7% to the UK. Can't remember what it was for the EU, less than 1% I think.

But, some EU countries trade more with the UK than others. For example, the Irish Central Banker recently projected a -3% GDP impact through hard brexit for Ireland.

Here is that report.

https://www.ceps.eu/system/files/IMC...ublication.pdf

[PurpleGorilla]

EU and trade agreements

Yes - looking tough for Ireland. Some jobs will be picked up in finance, creative media and perhaps pharma / medical devices, but won't be enough to offset the damage. Doesn't help that the UK government position is to leave the customs union and single market.

I don't think we will be leaving either (the single market or the customs union).

[northernladyuk]

I remember reading the pessimistic projection in the EU published economic impact analysis suggested at hit of 7% to the UK. Can't remember what it was for the EU, less than 1% I think.

But, some EU countries trade more with the UK than others. For example, the Irish Central Banker recently projected a -3% GDP impact through hard brexit for Ireland.

Yes - looking tough for Ireland. Some jobs will be picked up in finance, creative media and perhaps pharma / medical devices, but won't be enough to offset the damage. Doesn't help that the UK government position is to leave the customs union and single market.

[PurpleGorilla]

So the UK exports £213,981 million to the EU and the UK imports £290,961 million from the EU from the table above.
Also in that table are the % of the GDP.
11.45% of the GDP of the UK makes up that £214 billion
3.13% of the GDP of the EU makes up the £291 billion.

So, if the UK does not get a good trade deal with the EU, then the EU potentially loses 3.13% of it's GDP. That's quite a lot. But if the UK does not get a good trade deal with the EU, then the UK potentially loses 11.45% of it's GDP.

Who suffers more? The one who loses a potential 3.13% or the one who loses a potential 11.45%?

*note that I have used the same currency throughout, but the exchange rate for EUR to GBP in the table above is 1.3777, so the figures must be from some time ago.

I remember reading the pessimistic projection in the EU published economic impact analysis suggested at hit of 7% to the UK. Can't remember what it was for the EU, less than 1% I think.

But, some EU countries trade more with the UK than others. For example, the Irish Central Banker recently projected a -3% GDP impact through hard brexit for Ireland.

[WTFH]

So the UK exports £213,981 million to the EU and the UK imports £290,961 million from the EU from the table above.
Also in that table are the % of the GDP.
11.45% of the GDP of the UK makes up that £214 billion
3.13% of the GDP of the EU makes up the £291 billion.

So, if the UK does not get a good trade deal with the EU, then the EU potentially loses 3.13% of it's GDP. That's quite a lot. But if the UK does not get a good trade deal with the EU, then the UK potentially loses 11.45% of it's GDP.

Who suffers more? The one who loses a potential 3.13% or the one who loses a potential 11.45%?

*note that I have used the same currency throughout, but the exchange rate for EUR to GBP in the table above is 1.3777, so the figures must be from some time ago.

[PurpleGorilla]

that's the trick use pictures!

Always useful to look at the figures behind this...

[vetran]

Somewhat overstating the position, however it is true that the UK is not insignificant in terms of EU trade.

that's the trick use pictures!

[PurpleGorilla]

EU and trade agreements

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/838...-deficit-video

It's all good according to the express anyway.


[emoji19]

Somewhat overstating the position, however it is true that the UK is not insignificant in terms of EU trade.