The future for oil?

**jamesbrown** · 15 June 2017, 10:42

Originally posted by BrilloPad View Post

Thoughts?

Petrol smells nicer.

**northernladyuk** · 15 June 2017, 10:43

Originally posted by BrilloPad View Post

Stolen shamelessly from http://forums.contractoruk.com/busin...ml#post2430989

https://medium.com/@sethmiller_59231...e-38b843bd4fe0

In 1998, the market share of digital cameras wasn’t even measured. It was a rounding error. By 2005, the market share of film cameras were a rounding error.

They contend: -
Self-driving cars will launch around 2021
A private ride will be priced at 16¢ per mile, falling to 10¢ over time.
A shared ride will be priced at 5¢ per mile, falling to 3¢ over time.
By 2022, oil use will have peaked
By 2023, used car prices will crash as people give up their vehicles. New car sales for individuals will drop to nearly zero.
By 2030, gasoline use for cars will have dropped to near zero, and total crude oil use will have dropped by 30% compared to today.

Thoughts?

The decrease in oil demand will lead to a crash in hair gel prices, leading to a Recruitment Agent Event Horizon and the collapse of the economy.

**BrilloPad** · 15 June 2017, 10:46

Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post

Petrol smells nicer.

After the inquiry we will found out if tower block residents thought that.

**northernladyuk** · 15 June 2017, 10:47

Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post

Petrol smells nicer.

Lower cost solvent abuse will ease the pain of Brexit.

**xoggoth** · 15 June 2017, 10:49

Won't help contractors. Bloody HMRC will cut the mileage rate!

Seriously though, interesting article. Sounds plausible.

**jamesbrown** · 15 June 2017, 10:57

Originally posted by northernladyuk View Post

Lower cost solvent abuse will ease the pain of Brexit.

It should also relax your clients and reduce their initial gag reaction.

**Mordac** · 15 June 2017, 10:59

Originally posted by BrilloPad View Post

Stolen shamelessly from http://forums.contractoruk.com/busin...ml#post2430989

https://medium.com/@sethmiller_59231...e-38b843bd4fe0

In 1998, the market share of digital cameras wasn’t even measured. It was a rounding error. By 2005, the market share of film cameras were a rounding error.

They contend: -
Self-driving cars will launch around 2021
A private ride will be priced at 16¢ per mile, falling to 10¢ over time.
A shared ride will be priced at 5¢ per mile, falling to 3¢ over time.
By 2022, oil use will have peaked
By 2023, used car prices will crash as people give up their vehicles. New car sales for individuals will drop to nearly zero.
By 2030, gasoline use for cars will have dropped to near zero, and total crude oil use will have dropped by 30% compared to today.

Thoughts?

It'll only work if we swap oil for hydrogen - as is happening in California. Electric cars don't work for anything other than very short commutes. No-one wants to spend 3 hours "filling up the car" every 100 miles or so on a long trip.
Plus it'll only work if the govt can find a way to replace the £30billion they get every year from fuel duty. That's the real reason that "oil replacement" motoring strategies have hitherto been a bit half-arsed.
On the plus side, it will sort of solve the Middle East problem. They can fight over their respective worthless bits of sand to their hearts content without shafting the rest of the world economies.

**BlasterBates** · 15 June 2017, 11:04

Agreed, and especially in countries like India where all the new demand is. Demand in 2016 was 1 million barrels a day more than in 2015 and in 2017 it's rising by a similar amount. If the price goes down then you'll see an explosion of great big high performance gas guzzling SUV's, that will mop up any excess oil hanging around on the market.

**northernladyuk** · 15 June 2017, 11:05

Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post

It should also relax your clients and reduce their initial gag reaction.

No fear of your punters gagging.

The future for oil?